Hope and outrage is not a strategy. A tough-love look at the Midterms.
TAT readers,
If we are to recover a say in the US government, we must see the influence battlefield as it is, not as we’d prefer it. Only then can we plot and execute a successful strategy to begin the accountability due every sitting Republican in our congress. Electoral wins for the resistance have become enormously more challenging due to a long list of Republican tactics, laws and government control. Radical, mid-census gerrymandering, new unconstitutional laws shoved down citizen’s throats in red-states, our extreme right-wing activist SCOTUS, executive branch thuggery at DHS, the FBI and countless local police departments around the nation, a virtual absence of respect for law from the DOJ, censorship etc. etc. etc. are the hallmarks of fascist regimes.
As a Texan, I’ve long been aware that Republican Politics, is a blood- sport. This coming November, we’re all going to experience a historic moment in our extraordinary history that puts our patriotism to the ultimate test, stopping a fascist Republican regime that has all the advantages. Every moment of the current administration has been dedicated to one thing and one thing only, to fully control the US government beyond challenge. It’s all there in Project 2025, published ages before the 2024 election, and for all to see. I believe the American people are too bright to continue buying the GOP’s road apples (midwestern for horse manure), but will that be enough in November? Now, it’s up to all of us true American patriots to put a hard-stop to the overthrow of our republic. If we are to succeed, we must have a strategy or we risk losing the opportunity we have in November.
What follows is my professional analysis of the most critical vulnerabilities within the resistance effort, all of which could be easily rectified if we had leadership. As I have written often, there is no DNC in the game, so I will ignore any potential value they may have, simply because no one has any idea whether they will respond, or not. This raises one more note to regarding this essay. I have written several essays regarding strategy, vulnerabilities and GOP weaknesses, ever since I wrote the Democratic Party’s autopsy just days after the 2024 election. I will not repeat most of what is in those essays but will include links and ideas related to those essays, where I feel they may assist the reader.
Military strategy and planning is not something that can be well explained in an essay, however I can offer you a few uncomplicated insights that should be of value to everyone that is willing to stand up against tyranny. The most valuable insights are about focusing on the GOP’s vulnerabilities and our own. The GOP deficits are to be exploited (attacked) with any and all tactics, while that we protect against them doing the same to us. Our vulnerabilities may seem insurmountable at the moment, but this is far from true. After today’s essay, you will see that our vulnerabilities can be corrected while that the GOP’s are systemic and not fixable at all before the midterms. We have a five month head start if we get busy protecting our vulnerabilities now. We’ll need it because again, the DNC should have begun campaigning for the midterms a year and a half ago. No sense as they say, “in beating a dead horse.”
Strategy development requires as a first step, clearly defining the problem and doing so as succinctly as possible. All army recruits learn something called “land navigation.” It’s a test that challenges you to be able to read a military map, understand topography and be able to chart a course to your intended destination. For many, this is quite challenging but most can learn proficiency by listening and learning. The old adage when plotting a course on your land nav map, is that if you begin your plotted course, even a half a compass degree off, you will be very far off course the further you go. Compass headings radiate outwards like spokes on a bike tire, and the further out they go, the further each point is from the points on either side. This is why we begin our anti-fascist strategy with the clearest and most succinct definition of the problem. We want to hit the target as perfectly as possible.
My definition of the threat from the GOP, is below and despite its dystopian implications, is extremely accurate based on years of observing and researching the GOP’s and related behaviors. As the inimitable Maya Angelou so eloquently warned us, “when someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time.”
My definition of the problem goes something like this; “Today’s Republican Party enables the administration, global authoritarians and oligarchs to undermine and dismantle our democracy by wielding the power given to them by, we-the-people, against us. Their purpose is straightforward; unconstrained power for only a handful of men and their merry band of oligarchs. The future they intend for all of us is, a modern form of “serfdom.” - Cobaugh - 2026There are four primary vulnerabilities for the resistance. Of course, nothing stands alone and in this case, each of these primary four have dozens of issues associated with them. This essay is not an attempt to turn it into a book, and so will only address the four most dangerous vulnerabilities. These are also the ones that should they be addressed, could pay off handsomely come November.
Outrage isn’t enough. What the hell are we fighting for? We must have a flexible and evolving narrative of what we are fighting for, not a laundry list of outrages.
Stop scampering from daily outrage to the next one tomorrow.
Focus on three or four main issues that are not necessarily perceived as progressive issues, every hour of every day around the clock.
The four I recommend at this point in time are;
Inflation
The war with Iran
Epstein, Epstein and more Epstein
Immigration cruelty and lawlessness
Take the fight directly to every Republican congressman or Senator’s home district.
Turn out the apathetic voters
Now let’s go through the list above. I’ll try and keep the discussion tight and focused. After all, it is the weekend and no one wants to read an entire book with their morning coffee or evening beverage.
Part I: Outrage isn’t enough. What the hell are we fighting for? We must have a flexible and evolving narrative of what we are fighting for, not a laundry list of outrages.
Narratives matter more than all of the propaganda in the entire world. Okay, here’s the most succinct understanding of narrative for the purpose of influencing people.
Despite the tendency of most to talk about narrative as a story, this is not accurate in my profession. Narrative, is how human beings make meaning out of everything they experience throughout their lives. All of our individual experiences are unlike those of any other human being. Everything we experience creates in lay terms, a personalized filter between our ears that converts our experiences into meaning. Narrative Warfare, my core specialty, is a battle for control of the identity of an audience. Propaganda, fake news, conspiracy theories, historical revisionism and even truth, are all weapons in the battle for our identities.
For example, someone born and raised in Boston, will nearly always, have a narrative filter that sees New York sports teams as the enemy or in kinder terms, a spirited rivalry. No amount of statistics or game replays will convince them of anything positive about NY teams. Those fans have been indoctrinated over the course of their lives to only see a sporting event in terms of enemy vs. friendly. Even identical twins grow to be unique individuals, even though they have the same DNA. From the time they are toddlers, they experience things differently and therefore, grow different identities. They may be very similar, but their uniqueness is absolute. Once people have grown into a specific identity, it often takes decades it is very difficult to dislodge. Until then, whatever their identity becomes, makes roughly 90% of their decisions subconsciously.
This is why FOX News watchers will never see, read or hear things as we do. Their identity has been built by over thirty years of conditioning them to extreme-right-wing beliefs, even though they see themselves as patriots. Nothing will change them at this point. That is the reality that we must all accept. The identity of the person we knew before FOX News, in a matter of speaking, no longer exists as we knew them prior to their FOX addiction. Barring anything traumatic, the person you knew, may never return to their original self. Instead of fighting this, just accept it and focus your energy elsewhere.
Controlling the narrative of a brainwashed audience, is like hitching a team of horses to pull a wagon. The slightest cue you give them while driving the team, will be heeded, if they are well and regularly trained. Once a person identifies with a narrative, their actions become predictable and those actions simply become muscle memory, after decades of conditioning. Those still voting Republican are brainwashed and can be predictably triggered to do or believe whatever they are told. This is why the GOP has a dishonest narrative for everything; immigration, patriotism, the constitution, the economy, etc. Those narratives are how they control their audiences. The resistance, is still yet to form their first narrative. Movements require narratives that express the meaning of their cause. We are fighting blind and are unarmed on the narrative battlefield. A good narrative becomes the glue that holds a cause together and inspires its members to action.
We must create a narrative for every issue we’re fighting and those narratives must be relatable to our overarching narrative.
Part II: Stop scampering from daily outrage to the next one tomorrow.
Listen guys, I watch social media closely. I look for trends and how others see those trends. The administration and the GOP are leading the resistance around like a little dog on a leash. They do this easily by creating a daily outrage or two. When they do, resistance folks on social media scamper from one outrage to the next, like those adorable little Minions that our children and grandchildren love so much. The only problem for us not living in cartoon world is that, if we spend all of our time scurrying from one issue to another, we don’t focus on the very serious vulnerabilities that the Republicans have perilously stumbled into. I’m not suggesting that we ignore the GOP’s cruelty, corruption and lawlessness, but we must maintain massive pressure on their vulnerabilities. That’s how we get media to hear us instead of the opposition.
The resistance needs media support and under the current conditions, most mainstream media is cowering under their desks hoping that the White House won’t threaten them again. As they hide, they remove and minimize the content that would truthfully damage this administration and the GOP. In military terms, I’m asking you to instead of scampering about, to “concentrate our forces” on a handful of the GOP’s most vulnerable issues. Concentration of forces simply means to mass your troops and resources at a vulnerability of your adversary. In the simplest of terms, by running towards every daily outrage, we are just using up our time, energy and resources in a manner that doesn’t make a big enough noise to garner the attention of the mainstream press. We need coverage and not just the reactive kind. In Narrative Warfare, “he who goes first, wins.” We are exclusively reactive and this will cost us the midterms if it continues.
Part III: Take the fight directly to every Republican congressman or Senator’s home district.
Last July, I wrote a five-part series that was also a “how-to guide to defeating the current regime. I covered this topic in-depth throughout the series and so, will not rehash those points here. Here at this embedded link you can reach the last part of the series, an overview, which also includes links to the five part series.
The reasons for taking the fight to the Republican’s home districts is pure common-sense. In a fair election, the Republicans are so deep in the polling that they would certainly lose the House of Representatives. The Senate may hold for them but it is not a certainty either. They are hiding from their constituents and their social media game is not working anywhere close to where it has been the past decade of Trumpism. For example, I often take the pulse of how they are doing from Facebook and other social media platforms. GOP representatives and Senators are avoiding any controversial posts, preferring fluff photo-ops with anyone they can find that will agree to be in their photo-op. Even then, roughly 80% of the time the comment sections are filled with powerful derision from their constituents and those who are in other districts.
So in this logic train, if the GOP elected politicians are unpopular, that is a key vulnerability. It won’t be helpful though if we don’t take advantage of that vulnerability. The logic says to hit them hard on all of their social media with comments about Epstein, the war and especially inflation. This tactic puts your comments between the congressman or woman and their constituents. It’s a way of forcing their constituents to see how deeply and pervasively they are disliked. No one wants to back a corrupt politician, especially if others can see their name and face. The longtime GOP diehards that continue to vote for Trump, will not abandon the GOP, but that leaves everyone else to weigh your comments for truth and reason. This is one way to draw independent voters to our side and off their couches. There are roughly 30% of Republican voters that will never acknowledge truth. That leaves 70% of voters that are potential allies.
Yes, when you look at your social media feeds, take a moment to leave a short negative comment that is true. At least place one of those little laughing or angry emojis on their posts. One warning though… do not make comments that reflect partisanship. “Go blue” or “blue wave” will destroy any progress you make. America is so very fed up with partisanship. This is why we should avoid at all possible the mention of anything that wreaks of left/right, Dem/ Republican or conservative vs. liberal. After all, it’s not just Democrats that are furious with the regime and their willfully dishonest supporters. The resistance should always be branded as a movement of patriotic Americans defending our style of government and the liberty it provides, not a right vs. left partisan battle.
Part IV: Turn out the apathetic voters
I won’t waste too much time on this section because I have already partially addressed this earlier. Winning in November is a numbers game. Before the radical gerrymandering war begun by a terrified Trump and Republican Party, our battle was far more promising. We must now make up for any potential losses in the gerrymandered states. This means that we must try even harder and work smarter. As mentioned, there are only roughly 30% of hardcore Republican voters. They are too brainwashed to be reached so don’t waste too much effort on them. Our vulnerabilities are apathy and an absence of a resistance narrative. Among the roughly 30-35% of committed voters within the resistance there is indeed strength, but the question remains, how do we get voters off the couch to vote for the resistance, when the majority of them are fed up with our overly corrupt political system in general? This must be figured out quickly. One thing that would be of assistance is an overarching narrative that tells voters what our agenda is.
Summary
Today’s essay intended to give everyone an overview of our current situation and offers some recommendations to capitalize on the overwhelming unpopularity of this administration. Those who ignore such opportunities will always lose to those who may be horrible but have a plan. For decades, the GOP has built a massive and powerful media machine to “sell” their nonsense. They are good at this and have the money from their selfish oligarchy to fund unlimited media blitzes. This is an obstacle although not an insurmountable one. Remember, the GOP is the minority party, even though they currently control our entire government. I cannot at this time foresee this GOP converting independents and apathetic voters. They are that unpopular. We must act now though, if we are to make any real progress before the midterms.
Professionally, I have never worked on a political campaign, but I do know influence and have written, executed and assessed my own successful campaigns in my capacity within the military and extended national security community. What I conveyed in this piece, are the basics of any campaigning, regardless of its intentions. We are under assault every single day by the Republican media monstrosity and there is almost nothing of substance of quantity coming from our side. What I’m offering here are the basics that we can all contribute to since the DNC went into the Witness Protection Program. We can do this, and for our children and grandchildren’s sake, we must.
Onward,
Paul














