"How to guide," resisting the Republican coup

TAT readers,

I used to get a lot more excited for Fridays but in the past decade of rampant, insurrectionist Trumpism and MAGA Republicans, the weekends are far more focused on saving our nation than otherwise. I suspect that many of you feel the same or quite similar. Now, with the MAGA Republican axe, perpetually poised above the neck of our republic, we rest when we can and as is often heard in movies, “live to fight another day.” I would not say such a thing if careful and steady analysis of their acute threat, had not been a personal and professional focus for well over a decade. The warning signs began roughly around 2008, with Trump and Republican fixation on President Obama’s birth certificate. Like the proverbial snowball rolling downhill, it has only gained speed, size and is now, very dangerous.

The Finer Points of Narrative Warfare with Paul Cobaugh

The birther nonsense, was a test in influence operations terms. It was to build in a conspiracy theory with Republican voters, that once established made it easier to “con” them with every such narrative that followed. Now, those that still vote GOP, exist almost entirely on false narratives and their supporting conspiracy theories. My long and deep operational experience in influence in support of national security, is the basis for this assessment. In fact, I am considered a top tier operator, in NW or Narrative Warfare and hold the role of VP in our Think Tank, Narrative Strategies. I have written extensively on the topic of how NW works and why it has made in lay terms, “brainwashed” Republican voters.

• Conned, the conversion of the GOP conservatives into right-wing extremists

• Without factoring "brainwashing" into the equation for 2024, we're doomed to another far-right, extremist administration, no matter what pollsters say.

Still, when it comes to NW, those who oppose the authoritarian regime in office, are absent what it takes to stop the Republican assault leading to the demise of our republic. There is no leadership, no campaign support and when it comes to the DNC, Democratic National Committee, they are stuck in “deer in the headlights” mode, incapable of even bankrolling an effective challenge. It’s not that I will ever support any big-money political party but at this phase of American history, they are the only entity capable of supporting an effective challenge to the ongoing Republican coup. They have the checkbook and the networks to reach out to. Why they haven’t, simply proves my point regarding their decades-long incompetence. They campaign like it is 1925, not 2025. As it pertains to today’s essay, there is little chance of overthrowing this Republican regime unless the powers-that-be, pay attention to today’s must do recommendations, which they must do in order to become effective.

As many of you know, a couple of months ago, I wrote a short series of essays about how to take on the regime but in the absence of anyone filling the leadership vacuum of the resistance since, I will add the links again, here below.

1. Why won't the media call it a coup? Part I

2. Trump, Musk and the MAGA GOP's, coup attempt: fighting back! Part II in a series

3. Part III in the Coup series: The clock is ticking on Trump’s coup

4. Part IV in the Coup series: Getting off of the couch

5. Part V in the Coup Series: Understanding the Assignment

Now, let’s look at the most critical vulnerabilities that must be addressed immediately, in order to restore the republic. I will emphasize here that the resistance is not only the left, but an ever-increasing number of independents, Republicans, and all others as well.

1. There is no leadership and the little there is, goes unsupported

a. Some Democrats in Congress are doing a wonderful job of fighting the entire Republican Party’s complicity in dismantling democracy. House Minority leader Hakeem Jeffries, Congresswoman Melanie Stansbury and Senator Jon Ossoff come to mind immediately but there are others.

b. The problem is, why the hell doesn’t the DNC ensure that their work is being amplified everywhere and sustained?

2. The focus is all wrong. There is no narrative strategy, no messaging to support the narratives and zero sustained campaigning against a formidable GOP messaging machine, often assisted by some of the world’s most immoral foreign actors.

a. Here’s the bottom line, in my profession, narratives are the influential part of messaging. Without well-formed and evolving narratives, messaging is nothing more than an educated guess. There is no set of narratives for the resistance and intermittent attempts to “message” falls flat because they are not associated with a successful narrative.

b. The GOP has a whole stable of conspiracy theories, a special and very dangerous type of narrative that they associate to every message they disseminate, ad nauseum.

c. The GOP influencers, have been guided to some extent by professional Russian influence strategists in what the Russians and Soviets before them called, Active Measures. When Active Measures work, it ends up with what is called, Reflexive Control or in other words, the reasons that Republican voters cannot see reality. They are as noted prior, “brainwashed” in lay terms. These voters can no longer be reached or convinced of anything, unless uttered by their narrators, such as Trump, the GOP, FOX News and the bizarrely behaving bevy of GOP influencers, like Joe Rogan, Charlie Kirk, Alex Jones, MTG, Jim Jordan, etc. etc. etc.

3. There is little to no organization

a. There is zero organization of any significance. Those behind recent large protests are elusive and for good reason. They often represent the most progressive of causes. Talk about being tone deaf! Like the far-right, the far left, is only interested in the most extreme issues that they represent. Dishonest narratives on the far-left about Palestinian causes helped sink the VP Kamala Harris campaign. It is not that the long-suffering Palestinian people, like the Israeli people, don’t deserve relief but selling false narratives are the precise wrong way to go about it. Demonizing Israel for defending herself against decades of nation-state and nation-state supported terrorist movements, is just as wrong the far-right claiming that we should not support Ukraine.

b. While the US is fighting to hang onto our republic, attempting to sell far-left agendas to the middle voters who are somewhat on the fence, is pure ignorance and a recipe for one more failure in a long line of DNC failures. Joe Biden was what I call a “pragmatic progressive.” We cannot allow our resistance to become a test of wills between the far-left and the Republican Party which is far-right, since MAGA now speaks for the entire party.

4. There is absolutely no indication that opposition groups, understand how “non-kinetic targeting” works.

a. In the military and national security world, non-kinetic simply means that we are not shooting at anyone but attempting to persuade via influence. True influence is far more than just “messaging.” This is a very long topic and again, I include links below to previous essays that explains not only the reckless forty year failure of the US national security community, but also links to several deep-dives of mine on this topic

• J'Accuse our National Security community for influence, of putting our Republic, at significant risk.

• Combat ineffective, the rusted, broken-down hulk of US Influence Operations

• The US National Security Community has left us a critical vulnerability in US national security

• The US National Security community is incapable of managing mis/ disinformation threats

b. Targeting, whether kinetic or non-kinetic requires strategy, planning, execution, and ongoing assessments of how campaigns are going. There is an absence of expertise in any of the opposition groups.

c. For example, the 50501 protests are oriented towards large crowds in prominent public spaces, when they would be far more effective, taking protests to the COG, Center of Gravity for the congressmen and senators who enable every administration action. Their COG, is their home district offices.

d. I have now said for months that these groups are off-target. If you must organize the type of protests that we have been seeing, then also concurrently plan other recurring protests at the home offices of Republican elected leaders, and drag your local media with you. When they make a public appearance, turn those events into non-violent hell for those utterly dishonest, unpatriotic, and immoral Republican politicians.

e. By failing to take the fight to the heart of the adversary, you allow them to dominate media cycles and control the media narratives persistently in our headlines. “Inflation” and the so-called, “Biden border crisis” are but two examples of DNC impotency at Narrative Warfare. I would add that all the money that DNC solicits nonstop, pays for this impotence. Why do Democrats continue to pay for failure?

5. Voters are motivated, but no one is telling them what to do, where to do it and how to make a difference. Other voters are sitting on their hindquarters, bouncing from one outrageous culture war provocation to the next, reactively. In my line of work, this is the equivalent of playing only defense. No one wins with defense alone. Still, the DNC refuses to learn this, regurgitating policy when the war is over the identity of Americans.

The reason that the GOP uses culture wars is that they have spent the 30 plus years of FOX News, conditioning their audiences to a whole new version of patriotism that looks nothing like the historical and traditional versions. This makes them fully in control of their audiences and those audiences are powerless to think on their own or even recognize truth. They are no longer your grandfather’s GOP. They are US versions of Russian, far-right ideology, dressed up like Uncle Sam.

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Summary

This short essay today is recommended to keep handy, as a guide for how to proceed in the absence of leadership and knowhow. No one can win if we remain in reactive and social media mode alone. Influence, much to the consternation of the professional DNC failures, is far more than messaging. At this point in my life, mentoring the leadership of one of America’s only two major political parties, was not on my Bingo-card, but here we are.

All my life, I have been what I call a “reluctant leader.” In other words, when I see that something must be done and no one is leading, and especially when they do not know how, I have ended up leading by default, not intention. There is a great deal that I cannot do and know this, but I can help and mentor honest, true patriots, to influence effectively, in support of our republic. I am also duly sworn to, “protect and defend the constitution against all enemies, both foreign and domestic.” Offering mentorship is one way that I can still honor my oath to the nation. My writing, is another. Like most of you, I could not be more dedicated to this cause and mission.

We all have something to offer and putting your services to work in service to the survival of the republic, is one of the highest forms of patriotism. I offer this and hopefully, all of you will find your strength applies equally well. The word “United” is in the title of our nation and uniting our strengths, is what had built our nation to its zenith around 2016, as a unilateral superpower and leader of global democracy. We can exceed that previous zenith, so long as we restore our true values, denying the Republicans their fake, FOX News version, hellbent on The four horsemen of the MAGA Apocalypse: Autocracy, Oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and Political Violence.

It all comes down to all of us, regardless of party to stand up for the republic. Having skills and knowledge, gives us a far better chance for success. What I offered today, is one of the ways that my expertise can contribute, to the required knowledge for success. As noted, all of us have skills and those skills, motivation and energy are the key to our resistance. Please think hard on how you can contribute. Please continue showing up to those protests but also remember that a large part of showing up, means showing up at Republican District Offices… loudly and with your local media in tow.

I will leave you with the following and it is a bit of good news, if we can grow it. I have long said that there is a line that you cannot cross with Americans, before they won’t stand for further abuse. We are at that point and it is best compared to a simmering pot. This GOP regime, never understood that key piece of our American identity. This is why they conditioned their voters to absorb a newer but totally false patriotic identity. They needed something that they, in their arrogance and ignorance, could control. They continue to turn up the heat on that simmering pot.

MAGA is force-feeding us provocations such as, the Big BS Bill, masked alleged ICE thugs in our streets and their habitual refusal to obey the law, and even ignoring our constitution. In my opinion, should they continue to provoke, the pot will boil. If that day comes, it will not be pretty, not only for them, but for the nation as a whole. Trump and his party are aching for a civil war. No reasonable person should ever desire such, since that last one cost roughly 600,000 Americans their lives. Like the Confederacy in 1865, MAGA will lose but at what cost. The sooner that we learn how to and operate effectively with influence, the more likely that we can stop them, without bloodshed.

Simmering righteous anger is a powerful motivator for the resistance. We simply must find a way to work effectively in influence in order to sustain the simmer, without having the pot boil over. That is our mission now. Influence persistently and effectively.

Well, my fellow patriots, I hope today’s essay was helpful and… “let’s roll.”

My best for your weekend,

Paul