Looking at Ukraine, nearly a year from Putin's genocidal invasion
Building the case for victory
Yesterday, as reported by REUTERS, Russian/ “Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: "We have repeatedly said that such supplies will not fundamentally change anything but will add problems for Ukraine and the Ukrainian people." This reference pertains to the announcements from a variety of NATO nations that they’re in process of shipping more armored vehicles such as the US, Bradley fighting vehicles and approving more armored weapons, such as German made, Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. “Moscow Dmitry’s” press statements have become a guilty pleasure for me since the beginning of “Putin’s War.” Peskov has become the “Baghdad Bob” of Russia with his farcical statements of false bravado and comically dishonest press statements. That’s where the laughing stops.
As we near the first-year anniversary of Putin’s cultural and actual genocide-centric invasion of his sovereign neighbors, Ukraine, we’ve learned a great deal about Putin’s inept hordes and the globe’s resolve. This is mostly good news but there are some outliers. The downside is limited to two primary areas, casualties and the nations who support and enable Putin like China, Serbia, Belarus and to some extent, Modi’s India.
Putin’s assault on the people and infrastructure is beyond horrific and must be a focus of post-war reparations. The deaths and injuries cannot be undone. The human toll physically and emotionally is staggering for Ukraine. I would also add that Russian mothers are devastated as well at the unnecessary losses, Putin has inflicted on their sons.
1. Russia’s previously described military might, isn’t.
a. There are countless reports, think tank assessments and other expertise that have labeled Putin’s invasion, a massive failure.
i. Failed weapons and systems.
ii. Poorly trained troops, even the Spetnatz reduced to rabble.
iii. Inability to protect comms and intelligence systems.
iv. Inability to demonstrate even the rudimentary logistics capability.
v. Failed Russian military leadership.
b. The Russian people want nothing to do with the war.
c. Sanctions are taking a big bite out of Putin i. The Impact of Sanctions and Export Controls on the Russian Federation - United States Department of State
ii. Sanctions on Russia Over Ukraine (brookings.edu)
d. Putin’s thugs, also known as the Wagner Group, are being thrashed.
i. Terrorist leaders like Kadyrov, a Chechen terrorist along with Prigozhin, “Putin’s Chef” have degenerated to arguing over the rule forbidding beards in Russia’s army. Both have been soundly defeated on the battlefield despite, being the best armed, trained and supported of Russia’s forces.
a. The Crucial Difference in How Russia and Ukraine Wage War - The Atlantic
b. Be Prepared for Ukrainian Victory Over Russia (foreignpolicy.com)
c. Ukrainian morale far exceeds that of their Russian foes.
d. Ukraine has a decided advantage over Russia on the influence battlefield.
e. Ukraine has and continues to receive massive support from NATO and most of the RBIO, rules-based, international order.
3. Putin’s allies or cautious supporters are few and are marginalizing their credibility on the world stage. Both China and to some extent, India are paying for their close association with Putin. Neither will condemn the massive war crimes overtly and both continue to profit on the backs of Russia’s misery. More accurately, the Russian people’s misery.
b. The Ukraine war has made Iran and Russia allies in economic isolation. Here’s how. - Atlantic Council
c. Last Friend in Europe: How Far Will Russia Go to Preserve Its Alliance With Serbia? - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The short summary to this collection of excellent reporting and analysis is that things are tough during the Russian and Ukrainian winter, but… Ukraine has the support, the morale and the home turf advantage. They will continue to have the support, including better and more powerful offensive weapons. Every dime the RBIO spends on supporting Ukraine, is a bargain in the long run.
What comes next, even if the conflict extends into another year, is what matters. Putin’s invasion is absolutely genocidal for the Ukrainian people. Putin is a sick, immoral has-been who must be finished off in order to save Ukraine. The world will stand with Ukraine and most likely the Russian people if, they can rid themselves of Putin and the tyrannical oligarchs.
In 1917, the last Tsar, Nicholas the II, brutally oppressed the Russian people as serfs, acting as cannon fodder in an unpopular war. The corrupt and incompetent Russian command structure behaved like Putin, his generals and his henchmen. Landed Gentry of the time were like today’s oligarchs. The Russian people had enough, and Imperial Russia ended… quite badly, only to be replaced by Bolsheviks, later communists, acting no different than the Tsars. At the moment, the Russian people have had enough. Ukraine, the victim of Stalin’s Holodomor in the 1930’s has also had enough of Russian Imperialism, whether communist or Tsar centric.
History and logic are on Ukraine’s side. Current, credible reporting supports this opinion. It’s up the world to see this through to its logical and moral conclusion. I stand, ever with Ukraine.