Russian missiles hitting a NATO member is what we've all held our breath over.
Now that it has happened... what now?
So, TAT friends, as I sat down to write this afternoon, the topics of choice have been replaced by the breaking news, at approximately 1330/ 1:30 p.m. CST, I received a news notification from the Associated Press regarding Russian missiles landing in Poland, killing two. Poland is a NATO nation and it is of importance, that people understand the risk of how this act, could trigger a war much larger than Ukraine.
Let me try and put this event into the proper context so as to; 1, head off any potential panic and 2, to understand that Putin, already in a deep hole of his own making… has now begun digging a far deeper hole that he will not be able to get out of.
Today’s crisis regarding Russian missiles striking a village in Poland, killing two, revolves around something called Article 5 of the NATO Treaty of 1949. Article 5 is the requirement of treaty signatories come to the collective defense of any NATO nation that has been attacked. Please note the word “requirement.” This is not a, “do I want to help? but, I am required to help.” It is due to this article, more than any other reason, that NATO nations have worked prudently to give Ukraine what she needs rather than to fight alongside her. This distinction has so far prevented a far larger-scaled war between all of NATO and Russia. This would quite likely have drawn reluctant allies of Putin into the fight as well, such as Iran, China, Belarus and more.
Putin has been warned repeatedly to exercise caution but true to form, has apparently rejected this sound advice. He has been warned about war crimes… to no avail. He has been warned of the illegality of his war… to no avail. He has been warned over his genocidal activities against a sovereign neighboring nation… again, he has turned a deaf ear. Einstein’s definition of crazy applies here. “Doing the same thing, over and over again while expecting different results, is crazy.” Now, NATO in emergency meetings will have to decide if this strike against Poland is worth going to war over. If Poland decides to unilaterally do so, we and the rest of NATO must comply. The G 20 meeting in Bali has stated, after already announcing a resolution against Russia that they will now take up this issue.
So, here we are at the most dangerous global crossroads since September of 1939, when Hitler, under a false-flag operation rolled into Poland and began, WW II. Like the crossroads, we must now, along with our NATO Allies, decide which road to take; war, measured responses, ultimatums, no response… etc. Every one of these options and more, will be exceptionally difficult and come with a nearly unbearable burden of “what comes after” for those faced with these decisions. Monday-morning-quarterbacks are of no help when it comes to these types of decisions. Lives, misery and great costs of every imaginable kind, are on the line. This is a time for leadership.
In my opinion, the only option not worth considering, is to do nothing. This is called appeasement and it didn’t work prior to WW II and it won’t work now. Both Putin and Hitler share a sense of destiny, immorality and are/ were entrenched in their decisions. Appeasement will only delay matters, making everything worse when it does come to war.
With this situation being only a couple of hours old, we’ll all have to wait and see what develops, if anything. My personal hope is that we and our allies don’t adopt the automatic response that Europe followed at the outset of WW I and as laid out so masterfully, in the Guns of August, by renowned historian, Barbara W. Tuchman.
JFK, during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, so enamored of the analysis and wisdom of Tuchman’s book, wanted every officer in the Army to read it. He ordered it delivered in bulk to all global military basis and wished to avoid the catastrophic, bungled decision-making process that led to 16 million deaths between 1914 and 1918.
I, like most am fed up with despots and dictators turning the world into selfish chaos and want justice for what Putin has done to Ukraine and others. All out war though is like President Kennedy foresaw, not the answer, or at least not if it can be avoided via other means of justice. Still, we must find a way for a response that imposes enough cost on Putin, his siloviki, oligarchs and organized crime bosses that they will stop treating the globe as their personal property to be exploited unmercifully.
If or when we impose these costs, we need to take this tactic on the road and impress the same on Xi, the military Junta in Myanmar, Kim Jong Un in N. Korea and so many other, soulless thugs. We must impress on leaders like Modi that refusing to firmly condemn Putin’s genocidal activities, is not the attitude that the US accepts in a partner. In less than a century, we’ve seen two world wars and dozens of lesser conflicts. At some point, we must say “no” to thugs, impersonating national leaders and stop affording them the status of legitimacy.
Whatever measures NATO and other leadership come up with, will no doubt have been carefully considered, with the ramifications of massive war, weighing on them heavily. Again, I don’t believe we have a choice to do nothing, but we must build in safety valves to keep the pressure for all-out, global war in check. We also may never hear of what cost has been imposed on Putin and his thugs due to classification issues. It’s incumbent upon those of us in NATO countries to be supportive of our leadership, whatever their decision.
Here in the states, with the likely next, Speaker of the House being Kevin McCarthy, we must also insist that he and his extremist wing quit calling for a stop or defunding of Ukrainian efforts to tame the Russian bear. McCarthy’s statements, much like campaign ads here in TX call for the ignoring our responsibilities as Americans. It’s imperative that those wittingly or unwittingly supporting Putin on the right side of the aisle, stop the nonsense and back our treaty responsibilities and our commitment to freedom from oppression. This is not a political statement. It’s the great American narrative I grew up believing in and still do.
God-speed our “better angels,” to see us and countless others through this crisis, born of Putin’s selfish and soulless war.