The four horsemen of the MAGA Apocalypse: Autocracy, Oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and Violence
TAT readers,
I always begin my day with coffee and a careful review of morning headlines. As I took a tour of my favorite sources searching for a topic to write about, one popped up this morning from the AP, that reluctantly inspired today’s essay. I say “reluctant,” because I have intentionally avoided this topic when discussing the Trump/ MAGA threat to our constitutional republic. It is personally painful and historically painful, to anyone familiar with the devastating losses stemming from our Civil War, 1861-1865. No one that considers themselves patriotic, should ever incite violence against another citizen or other US resident… NEVER.
Inciting violence against fellow Americans is the actual “fourth horseman of the apocalypse” of MAGA ideology. I have written extensively on the other three, autocracy, oligarchy and Christian Nationalism, but today, I must address this formerly unspoken warning about the NI/ Narrative Identity of hardcore Trump/ MAGA voters.
Narrative identity Narrative framing confers meaning to the facts and elements of a person's or communities' identity. A critical aspect of narraitve is that it is unique to a specific identity or audience. Every person or group of people with similar identities has a unique narrative which expresse who they are, their history and is their lens to the world aorund them. - Introduction to Narrative Warfare: A Primer and Study Guide - by Dr. Ajit K Maan (Author), Paul L Cobaugh (Author) - June 16, 2018
The four elements of autocracy, oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and violence, are clearly primary parts of who they are, and it is not even a conscious thought, for a majority of MAGA devotees. Narrative Warfare occurs subconsciously in nearly all cases. MAGA devotees, have been in lay terms, brainwashed by a three decades long “conditioning” by FOX and other far-right propaganda outlets, Trump, his key influencers like Brad Parscale and of course, Russian influence operations. As noted, I have invested plenty of time at my keyboard, on all of these topics. Some of those essays, are listed below and which explain my positions in detail. For those with interest, I believe that you will find the background reading, as disturbing as it is dangerous to our republic and its citizens. These are merely the short list.
Conned, the conversion of the GOP conservatives into right-wing extremists (truthaboutthreats.com)
Without factoring "brainwashing" into the equation for 2024, we're doomed to another far-right, extremist administration, no matter what pollsters say. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Christian Nationalism and theocracy are the antithesis of democracy, not the foundation, as Putin and the US right would have us believe (truthaboutthreats.com)
The GOP war on women and all things gender. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Project 2025; part cheerleading, part war plan and all, bullets of BS, aimed at the heart of American Democracy. (truthaboutthreats.com)
The real Axis of Evil in the US is Russia, the MAGA controlled GOP and spineless Republican voters, putting party over country. (truthaboutthreats.com)
This restack from March, is the first of two TAT essays today: Oligarchy is an acute threat to democracy (truthaboutthreats.com)
Thugs, Despots, Dictators and Populists - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Yes, extremist politics increases the threat to a nation's national security. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Iran, Mike Flynn and MAGA, Christian Nationalists or.... (truthaboutthreats.com)
With the background presented and my intent for today acknowledged, let’s look at MAGA’s violent intentions.
Onward
Trump’s obsession for violent rhetoric is legendary or rather in my opinion, infamous. In an article in Politico back in August of 2016, journalist Michael Crowley wrote a long, excellently detailed article showing just a fraction of Trump and his MAGA hordes’ penchant, for violence against their political opponents. Now as we approach our national election, six weeks from tomorrow, the incitement has exponentially increased from 2016. The MAGA internet, regularly incites political violence in support of Trump and a violent civil war if he loses, or is jailed for his endless felonies, including espionage.
In May of 2020, ABC reporter Mike Levine published an article detailing 54 incidents where Trump/ MAGA rhetoric was involved in violence, threats and alleged assaults. Clearly and as any honest American already knows, this is who Trump and MAGA are, it is part and parcel of their identity. I use the word identity carefully as that it is a core field of focus in NW/Narrative Warfare, my specialty. Despite the US national security community’s resistance to understanding NW, it is the core of all influence operations. It is precisely those types of operations that altered the NI or identity of GOP voters.
As we all learned in high school science class while discussing Pavlov’s Dog, behavior can be incrementally altered over time. In narrative, this means that over time a person’s identity can be converted into something the complete opposite of what it once was. This is why that today’s MAGA Republicans falsely believe themselves “conservative” while that in truth, they are far-right extremists. The entities to blame are many but the two primary culprits are FOX News and Russian influence operations. What occurred is precisely what the Soviets intended throughout the Cold War, which continues to this very day. Originally called Active Measures and now the Gerasimov Doctrine, reflexive control is the intention. In lay terms, reflexive control means that influence operations can trigger predictable responses in audiences by experienced influencers, after they understand an audience’s identity.
What this describes is the heart and soul of Narrative Warfare. There are only two ways to understand such identity, and neither are understood by national security professionals. The first is to know how to analyze audiences’ identities or to build it incrementally over time. This is what FOX, mirroring Russian influence operations has done over thirty years. Now built, they can trigger their audiences to believe in and act on those beliefs, with a short message, colors, numbers, symbology or any combination of these. Like most decisions that humans make, 80-90 % are made subconsciously. This is what makes the “brainwashing” so dangerous when violent rhetoric is part of someone’s identity. The proof of this was January 6th and the historical spike in far-right violence, during the Trump era. That era is not over, and the coming election has been preprogramed to be defended violently within the most fully brainwashed MAGA crowd.
Below are several articles from excellent sources that clearly demonstrate Trump’s dependence and addiction to violence as a method to acquire whatever he wants. Like all malignant narcissists, he could care less about anyone but himself and will stop at nothing to satisfy his desires. This includes violence and as displayed in his persistent calls for violence in support of January 6th. He had his militias, an operational commander in former and disgraced LTG (R) Mike Flynn. To this day, leadership of the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and 3%ers are jailed from their subservience to his false, destructive and anti-American narratives. Those narratives are still in play and supported by substantially more violent rhetoric than in 2020/ 21.
A handful of plentiful credible sources, supporting my claims:
Trump's intensifying rhetoric offers insight into how he might govern again as president | AP News
Donald Trump: Aggressive Rhetoric and Political Violence | Perspectives on Terrorism (icct.nl)
Excerpt from research by the ICCT/ International Centre for Counter-Terrorism
"During Donald Trump’s presidential candidacy and presidency political discourse in the United States became more hateful and divisive. Threats and actual violence against groups and individuals singled out and demonized by Trump increased. The targets of his verbal attacks were most of all racial, ethnic, and religious minorities, the news media collectively and individual journalists, and well-known politicians, mostly Democrats. There was a rise in bullying incidents in schools against minority students. Assuming that aggressive rhetoric by influential political leaders affect their supporters’ words and deeds, we examined Trump’s online and offline hate speech, the rhetorical reactions of his followers, and the violent consequences suffered by their declared enemies. We found that contrary to an old children’s rhyme (“Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me”) Trump’s aggressive, divisive, and dehumanizing language was seconded by his followers and inflicted directly or indirectly psychological and physical harm to Trump’s declared enemies." - Donald Trump: Aggressive Rhetoric and Political Violence - Perspective on Terrorism - by Brigitte L. Nacos, Robert Y. Shapiro, Yaeli Bloch-Elkon - VOL. XIV, Issue 5
A New Era of Violent Rhetoric Began in 2015, and We're All in Danger | Opinion - Newsweek
Trump's MAGA movement nurtures violent threats. Don't ignore them (usatoday.com)
The MAGA Internet Calls for War - The Atlantic
From the article The MAGA faithful are once again on the internet threatening violence. Lots of Republicans, of course, responded to Trump’s felony verdict with simple outrage rather than calls for a “neutralization operation.” But more extreme language has appeared all across the right-wing posting ecosystem. Some Proud Boys chapters responded with the word “war” on their Telegram channels, as reported by Wired, and Reuters found instances of Trump supporters calling for violence against jurors and the judge in the case, as well as calls for civil war and insurrection. An anonymous right-wing X account went viral by posting “Third World Problems Require Third World Solutions” on top of a video of the 2020 military coup in Myanmar. - The MAGA Internet Calls for War - The Atlantic - Ali Breland - 31 May 2024
The times Trump has advocated for violence (axios.com)
Trump supporters call for riots and violent retribution after verdict | Reuters
Summary
In the next six weeks and as we’ve seen all year now, violent Trump/ MAGA rhetoric will continue to grow in quantity and ferocity. Election Day will see us experiencing MAGA at a fever pitch in their uncontrollable support for Trump and his anti-American, MAGA key elements mentioned at the beginning of this short essay. By understanding Narrative Warfare and one of its core-principles regarding just how easily, indoctrinated extremists can be predictably and subconsciously triggered, should give everyone pause and hopefully, the Federal Government and local authorities will pay attention as well.
After nine years of overt and blatant MAGA rhetoric from the GOP and their Russian influence operations that support them, those still brainwashed by MAGA extremist ideology, are only more entrenched in that ideology. I am not predicting an all-out civil war but based on January 6th and the record expansion of hate crimes by the right, I do believe that there will be pockets of violence. We see this here in Texas regarding the intimidation of poll and election workers. Texas is not alone but we do have a governor and GOP that back anything MAGA says and does. There are no patriots left in elected Republicans. It is that simple. We see the same in Missouri where I was born and Ohio where I was raised. In fact, any so-called “red state” will look and act in similar fashion and have from the very beginning of the Trump era.
What MAGA wants is anti-American values and a destroyed constitution. The only answer is for every honest American, regardless of political beliefs, to vote MAGA to the curb, for good. There is value in having principled political belief systems competing for space in the public square, but the operable word is, “principled.” Based on this statement, the current GOP is devoid of principled conservatives for the sole reason, that those few still remaining have no voice. The GOP agenda now is very close to what we see in Russia who also embodies the aforementioned, “four horsemen of the apocalypse.” There is no place for these horsemen called, autocracy, oligarchy, White Christian Nationalism and violence, in the America our founders envisioned.
Abstract "Income inequality in Russia is extreme, and wealth inequality is higher than in any other country in the world. Russia’s economic inequality has resulted not only from the privatization of state assets in the 1990s, but also from the continuing exploitation of opportunities to profiteer from corrupt and cronyistic relations between those controlling rent-extracting assets, both in state and in private sector activity, and those in power. The regime has refrained from limiting the influence of oligarchs as a group. Beginning in the early 1990s, the regime made concessions to powerful economic interests to maintain power, and this alliance has persisted since then. Together with a growing economic reliance on natural resources, regime policies have led to a diminishing middle class, extreme wealth concentration at the top, and economic precariousness for much of the population. To maintain power, the regime has suppressed all democratic institutions and turned to ultranationalism and aggression." - Autocracy and Oligarchy in Russia - Oxford Academic - Thomas F. Remington - May, 2023
The current administration has put us significantly back on track, to rebuild after Trump and his MAGA hordes, attempted to dismantle our republic. We still have a way to go, in order to make that progress secure from another MAGA administration. There are responsibilities for everyone to do this, from your hometown, all the way up to the Oval Office. We will not get the chance however, if we don’t treat MAGA as the extremist movement that they are. The only question that matters to voters is whether or not they wish to live in a republic or a Russian styled autocracy.
Like all military and many Government workers, I swore a sacred oath when joining to, “protect and defend the constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic.” Like nearly all people I know that have sworn that oath, I also believe that the oath has no expiration date. Now more than ever, our nation needs all of us, regardless of political “side,” to stand for the principles our brilliant founders expressed in our founding documents. I know where I stand and if you are reading this, I imagine you do as well.
Thank all of you for your patience and willingness to read TAT. I remain, humbly honored.
Paul
I think historians will date the start of our second civil war to January 6th, 2021, but we're about to transition into a time where it can no longer be denied. We're a bit handicapped by our first civil war - there aren't going to be uniformed armies engaged in cavalry charges. We've got a weakened, discredited central power, multiple aggrieved ethno-sectarian groups that are so polarized they don't mix ... I fear the best outcome will be a preservation of democracy at a federal level, but places like Texas, the southeast, and the mountain west will form religious para-states.