Today's TVP interview about the Russian and N. Korean pact, and how it fits into the new Axis of Evil Threat

TAT readers,

Well, it is another Monday and, there is still no world peace. This week, I began by preparing for another interview with the Polish Public news service, TVP/ Telewizja Polska. The link to the interview is below:

TVP South Korea blasts Russia-North Korea deal | Paul Cobaugh (youtube.com)

For those here in the US that don’t typically follow national security movements in Europe and NATO, Poland has become somewhat of a superstar, especially in support to Ukraine as a member of NATO. Like the US, Poland last December convincingly booted their right-wing government out of office and reelected former Prime Minister Donald Tusk, a centrist to lead the nation. Sound familiar? Yes, much like the US.

The former Polish government was more along the lines of the FOX News crowd and troublesome for both the European Union and Polish viewers. Viewership plummeted as TVP began to look more like FOX than regular reporting. I don’t mean to say any mainstream news service is as immoral and dishonest as FOX, but yes, TVP, occasionally ran some of the same conspiracy theories as are common in today’s GOP, especially in their chryons (those news banners running at the bottom of the screen). They have recovered in inspiring fashion with a new centrist Prime Minister, Donald Tusk.

I was fortunate though as I began appearing on this critical European news broadcast last year, often to discuss issues regarding China. Yes, there were occasionally subtle efforts to steer me towards an opinion more favorable to the same right-wing trends popular globally. The news anchors and reporters alike though, were always kind and honorable with me, never pressing for some official supporting opinion of the Polish administration at the time. As with my writing here at Truth about Threats, I simply tell the truth as based on credible sources evaluated in objective context.

The far-right in Poland came to power in 2015, just as global right-wing extremism was hitting its peak, here in the US, Europe, India, Brazil and several other corners of the world. After eight years of the same assault on Polish values, Polish voters last December, did precisely as American voters had done and said, no more! Very quickly, incoming PM Donald Tusk and his new administration put an end to the right-wing propaganda and its leadership at TVP. Like Polish support for Ukraine, Poland is also demonstrating leadership in pushing back against the Russian, far-right narratives that infect all democracies and their support within parties like the US GOP.

In today’s interview, the discussion pertained to the recent announcement that Putin and that little pipsqueak (KJU/ Kim Jong Un) in N. Korea had signed a mutual defense pact. In my words today, this is merely a classic, “dog and pony show.” Putin, like KJU/ Kim Jong Un a.k.a. the “pipsqueak” is fond of bellicose threats that cannot be backed up. Putin has been bellowing threats against the West, since his initial and large-scale invasion failures in Ukraine, well over two years ago. This is a classic case of the “boy who cried wolf.” In this case it’s the Russian bear bellowing in a futile attempt to scare off the West's support for our fellow democratic brothers and sisters in Ukraine, fighting not only for their survival but for everyone in the West.

I focused a good deal of the interview on understanding the now well-established hierarchy of the Axis of Evil that has Xi at the top, then followed by Putin, the theocratic terrorist regime in Tehran and followed by KJU shouting like the donkey in the cartoon classic, Shrek, “pick me, pick me.” The truth about the new Axis, is that at the end of the day, everyone is supporting Xi, in one way or another.

The admittedly, oversimplified paraphrasing of this concept, sounds something like the following:

Xi, in pursuing his China Dream strategy, built on the back of the BRI which intends to see China as the regional hegemon by 2035 and global hegemon by 2049, requires Russia to not be defeated. This also means keeping Putin or someone else similar in power and Russia intact. Putin is Xi's attack dog the same way that Iran is Putin's. The war in Gaza, like coups in Niger, conflicts Azerbaijani aggression against Armenia and stirring up tension in the Balkans are merely diversions to take the attention off of his failures in Ukraine. All regions are of critical importance to Xi's Belt and Road Initiative or BRI. 

- Cobaugh
- 2024

Xi threw seemingly unlimited FDI/ Foreign Direct Investment funding into Europe and his global BRI targets ever since he came to power but his penchant for making endless poor strategic decisions, have left China’s economy running on fumes and with little left to purchase more influence in the West. This opens a large opportunity for the RBIO/ Rules-based International Order, to modify Xi’s aggression called, the China Dream.

No one would have paid any attention to Putin and KJU’s agreement had S. Korea, a long-time and close ally of the US and the West, not announced immediately after the Putin/ KJU announcement, that they were reconsidering the opportunity to also provide weapons and support to Ukraine. Now, the national security community and diplomats globally are concerned about this escalating the potential for a worldwide conflict. I say that this is typical western thinking and sometimes, a nation or collective defense entities like NATO must stop fretting and just call the bluff of bullies and demonstrable aggressors. Each of the Axis of Evil nations are serial aggressors. None alone, have the capacity to take on the world at the moment and each day that we continue to react to their baseless provocations and vapid attempts at intimidation, the world is less safe.

Whether or not S. Korea who is perpetually at threat from Russia, N. Korea and China will go forward with their reconsideration of providing Ukraine arms, we are far better off calling Putin’s pathetic string of baseless bluffs, threats and ultimatums right now. Xi, the big dog of the Axis, is in no way ready to enter a full-blown war with the West. Putin, who has gone begging for help to Iran, N. Korea, South Africa and more, most certainly is in no shape for a global war. Iran is absolutely nothing but a regional bully without Putin and to some extent, Xi. KJU, mostly still operating on 1950s Russian military hardware with only some recent new additions, is more a threat to himself and N. Korea than anyone else.

The lesson that the West must relearn while the rest of the world is largely sitting on the sidelines, is that just being, is not deterrence. We must continue to act collectively via active leadership and with all manner of behavior modification tools or as in the old proverb, “sticks” like sanctions and when the time is right, carrots as well. This is what makes the world a safer place from autocrats, dictators, despots and thugs.

Democracy is finding its legs again after being nearly disabled by a generation of intense, authoritarian attempts to destroy it. Let’s not just sustain our current pace of recovery but accelerate it too.

My very best for your week,

Paul