TAT readers,
PHEW! The issues in our threatscape are coming at us fast and furiously. There is not enough time for a deep dive on one single topic, so today’s essay will be focused on just three timely and critical areas. The thread that ties them all together is propaganda, false narrative, conspiracy theories, mis and disinformation and of course, just plain lies.
Let’s get right to it…
As I sat down to write today, Hurricane Milton was upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane with imminent landfall at or around Tampa, Florida, the second such storm in the past two weeks. The devastation from Hurricane Helene has accounted for more than 200 deaths and will cost an estimated $ 30-35 billion dollars for recovery. Estimates from those who monitor insurance costs have published numbers showing that less than 1% of those devastated, were insured for the types of damages incurred.
This singular threat revolves around several threats, such as;

Climate Change is real, no matter what big oil and the MAGA folks tell you. Climate change denial is a concept, birthed by, embraced, marketed by and continually pushed by hired guns in the public affairs/ marketing world, hired by big oil oligarchy, that posts record quarterly profits. This has been the case for nearly half a century and continues unabated, until this very day. Big oil still receives massive US government subsidies, despite being more aligned with the Saudi/ Russia led OPEC.
Oligarchy within the insurance field.
Oligarchy
Big oil and Insurance are but two business sectors that operate as oligarchies. All oligarchies increase costs and other burdens onto taxpayers, while concurrently paying far less than their fair share of taxes. No nation can afford to continue giving multi-national corporate oligarchs, a free pass that the rest of us pay for.
Here are a few interesting reads regarding oligarchy in the US, that should anger and frustrate even the most tolerant taxpayer.
Full article: American Oil-Igarchy: How the Corporate Assault on Liberal Democracy and the Climate Are Connected (tandfonline.com)
Wind, Fire, Water, Hail: What Is Going on In the Property Insurance Market and Why Does It Matter? | Office of Financial Research
Why more and more homeowners are dropping insurance - The Washington Post
New Report Reveals Gov. DeSantis’ Role in Florida Home Insurance Crisis: Workers and Allies Condemn Governor’s Brazen Corruption | American Federation of Teachers (aft.org)
“Floridians are suffering from the threat of floods, hurricanes and other natural disasters, and homeowners are increasingly at risk of losing it all because they simply cannot afford spiraling insurance premiums,” said Weingarten. “Where is the governor? Well, he has picked sides: When given the choice of helping Florida’s working families or doing the bidding of the insurance lobby, Ron DeSantis puts his donors first. This report joins the dots. We can’t allow DeSantis to dismantle the livelihoods of millions of Floridians in the service of corporate interests.” - New Report Reveals Gov. DeSantis’ Role in Florida Home Insurance Crisis: Workers and Allies Condemn Governor’s Brazen Corruption - National and Local Union Leaders, and Florida Workers Gathered to Slam DeSantis for Selling Out Floridians to Big Insurance, amid Record Natural Disasters Threatening Florida’s Homes - May 23, 2023
The bottom line to these thoughts and links, is that Climate Change costs are unsustainable for our economy, especially when corporate oligarchy refuses to pay their fair share and continues to profit wildly at the expense and suffering of the American people. Until Congress takes action to reform the legislation that has allowed oligarchy to thrive again in our nation, nothing of substance can done to relieve the intense suffering, of these increasingly frequent and horrific natural disasters. If your elected representatives are still lying about climate change, you need a new one in November. I believe that we owe our children and grandchildren at least a fighting chance at being prepared for the future that they, not us, will live in.
The end of the first threats discussion segues quite nicely into the next, mis/ disinformation.
Surrounding the multistate disaster that Helene has become, has been an entire media circus of made up, conspiracy theories, from both MAGA, their army of immoral influencers like Brad Parscale and as always, Russian influence operations. Not only are these outright lies harmful to trust in government and the deeply supportive army of government workers, contractors and all manner of other volunteer efforts, but it imposes fear, anxiety and low morale, on those already suffering from the massive storm itself.


How sad must the MAGA crowd be, to constantly spread mis/ disinformation and the false narratives spewing from Trump’s, the MAGA media influencers like Brad Parscale and ultimately spread/ amplified by the Kremlin, in support of Trump’s reelection. Even Netanyahu in Israel is pumping mis/ disinformation into the media environment in support of fellow felon, Trump.

Below you find links to the most credible sources, refuting the bizarre, outrageous Trump/ MAGA conspiracy theories about Hurricane Helene.
The Charlotte Observer knocks Donald Trump over Helene response 'falsehoods' (thehill.com)
Trump makes false claims about federal response as he campaigns in area ravaged by Helene | AP News
Misinformation from Trump, far-right hampers Helene recovery - CSMonitor.com
FEMA chief blasts false claims about Helene federal response | AP News
Right-wing influencers were duped to work for Russian operation, US says | AP News
After the deluge, the lies: Misinformation and hoaxes about Helene cloud the recovery - POLITICO
Hurricane Helene: Fact vs. Rumor | NC State Extension (ncsu.edu)
Finally, the last section for today also segues nicely from the last, regarding mis and disinformation, as it pertains to Israel’s wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and their state sponsors, Iran and Putin.
To begin, today marks the one-year anniversary of the barbaric, surprise attack on Israel. In the ensuing months, the overwhelming majority of western media, even from news outlets that I once endorsed, like Reuters and the BBC, have been overtly dishonest about these wars. In many cases their reporting has been in my professional opinion, antisemitic in nature.
The horrific attacks by Iranian sponsored HAMAS last Oct. 7th, were focused on barbarity as a tool of influence, in order to threaten and frighten Israeli citizens. This was their first mistake. The majority of Israelis despise Bibi, PM Netanyahu but when it comes to defending the nation, there will be unity and fearlessly so. Israel was attacked by all of their neighboring Arab (mostly) states, literally one minute past midnight on the very day became a nation. Genocide against Israel has long been the intention of all Middle Eastern Muslim nations, including Egypt.
On the destruction of Israel: "Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it." (Preamble) - Hamas 1988 Covenant
"Palestine is a land that was seized by a racist, anti-human and colonial Zionist project" - 2017 Hamas doctrine
The covenants and founding documents of most regional terrorist organizations cite genocide for Israel, as a primary goal. Both Hamas and Hizbollah cite genocide in their doctrine.
"The first declaration of principles, which many consider to be Hizbollah’s ideological foundation, was published on February 16, 1985, following the creation of the group in the early 1980s. Formulated in the midst of both the Lebanese civil war and the Israeli intervention in the country, the group’s document reflected a Manichean view of the world, divided between the forces of evil, namely the West and its local allies, and the Party of God. More specifically, the 1985 Letter rejected all foreign presence and interference within Lebanon and the Muslim umma in general, and maintained the need both to repel the presence and corrupting influence of the West on the Islamic world and to fight until the final destruction of the State of Israel." - The “Rebirth” of Hizbollah: Analyzing the 2009 Manifesto - INSS.ORG - Benedetta Berti
So, let’s put this in a way that even those of us here in the West can understand.
Imagine that here in the US, both Mexico and Canada, yearly shot somewhere between a 1,000 - several thousand rockets a year into the US and sent countless numbers of terrorists into the US yearly, that focused on murdering and maiming civilians. To make matters worse, both Mexico and Canada, along with the extremist groups that they harbored, were being trained, equipped and supplied by NATO or other nations that we considered allies or friends.
Finally, just imagine that nearly all of the world’s news outlets played the, “blame the victim” game and said it was our fault that we were being attacked.
This is what Israel is up against. Western media, other than the first couple of days immediately after the Hamas attack, have been blaming the victim, overtly and with subtle but equally dishonest reporting. The BBC and Reuters had long been on my list of credible journalism entities but after both of their shameful and dishonest behavior against Israel, will likely never return as one of my sources. Both behaved in a nearly anti-Semitic manner and to some extent, still do.
Israel today, mourned the dead and hostages as we did post 9-11 but the difference is, the majority of the world supported us. The precise opposite is the case in Israel’s case.
The accusations of wanton killing of civilians, is patently untrue. As observed and assessed by the prestigious Lieber Institute at West Point, Israeli actions have long been the Gold Standard for warning civilians and having standard processes and procedures that mitigate attempts to harm civilians. This is war though and at full-scale. Innocent people get hurt and yes, it is painful for moral combatants, like most Israeli service members.
Conclusion The law of targeting lies at the very heart of LOAC because the act of targeting requires consideration of both military necessity and humanity. Understanding how the IDF conducts its targeting analysis can go a long way towards explaining, and in some cases predicting, what we will see as the conflict rages on. Decision-making on all of these matters is time-constrained and challenging. The IDF, therefore, incorporates legal advice at every echelon of command. It is provided by its highly competent MAG attorneys, who operate fully aware that their foes will capitalize on mistakes, seek to inflame opinion, and practice “lawfare” in the global information arena. This war began with atrocities, and it is too soon to predict how it will end, but I am confident that the IDF has mainstream legal positions and is equipped with first-rate legal advisors. What remains to be seen is whether the conflict can be contained and how well IDF precautions can serve to limit the death and destruction, as well as what further outrages Hamas may commit and the effects these have on the direction of the Israeli war effort. - Israel – Hamas 2023 Symposium – Inside IDF Targeting - Lieber Institute at West Point - John Merriam - October 20, 2023
he pain of civilian casualties is at the core of PTSD, for troops from most nations that have seen war. It is at the heart of my own. Terrorists that are heavily indoctrinated, rarely suffer such effects. The barbarity witnessed October 7th last year is a perfect example. Hamas attackers took photos, publicized their beastly activity and even carried handbooks explaining how to go about taking hostages and inflicting as much terror on victims as possible, alive or dead.
Every day, we see in western headlines that tell us how many people Israeli Defense Forces/ the IDF has inflicted on Lebanese, Syrian or Palestinian people but rarely anything that differentiates between civilians or combatants. We hear almost nothing of Israeli casualties or those killed by the terrorists operating in Israel or fighting them. Russia, China, Iran and quiet efforts from some entities within the Gulf States enable all of this propaganda. Still, it is Israel alone.
I have written roughly two dozen deep dive reports on the conflict, ever since Oct. 8th last year, telling the whole story, not just the pro-Hamas/ Hizbollah versions favored by dishonest media. Yes, Israel, like most militaries, have bad apples or those who pay less attention to their civilian protection doctrine than they should. This is wrong and Israel investigates these incidents, including through appropriate punishment, when necessary.
I am a supporter of Israel but, like anyone doing their best to be honest, have also been quite critical of her faults, especially Netanyahu’s right-wing extremist administration. In fact, shortly after the war began, I wrote an analysis of the six primary entities to blame for the Oct. 7th war, and included Bibi’s racist/ extremist administration as one of the six.
Today, we remember all of the innocent lives destroyed on Oct. 7th and I will add, all of the innocent lives lost since Hamas and Iran went to war against Israel, with barbaric violence more akin to the Middle Ages, than any modern warfare. As is said in Judaism, “may their memories be a blessing.”
The common threads running through these three threats facing the nation and global democracy, are the wielding of influence for evil and immoral purposes. The core of resilience is a strong moral compass and even the US national security community refuses to endorse this truth. They cannot protect the nation from immoral, adversarial influence campaigns and worst yet, refuse to learn from those who can teach them.
Our national media environment is saturated with influence operations from a wide variety of sources with multiple agendas. Even marketing of products has taken on a whole new air of disgrace via digital and unethical marketing. Ads pop up anywhere and everywhere on devices, often obscuring the news itself. Big data entities like Google and Amazon, constantly use our data to shove targeted ads in our faces. It was that same data that Facebook allowed into the hands of Russian influence operations collaborating with the Trump campaign in 2016 and ever since.
We here in the West, remain unarmed in this battle of influence, known professionally as Narrative Warfare. Our national security community and those of most of our allies who employ very similar doctrine have been on a four-decade losing streak against influence and show no sign of improving. Their dedication to failed experts and defense contractors have allowed nepotism to trump national security. This is why that I often end my essays with the admonition, “there is no cavalry.” We must do this ourselves by building resilience in ourselves and our communities, via truth and understanding.
So long as we remain hostages of unethical and alleged news services and other media, disaster victims will suffer more, our allies will remain victims of aggressors and our republic will be at severe risk from influencers, not experienced and honest politicians. Trump, Putin and MAGA nearly broke our constitutional republic during his administration and things are little better now, if any. Even worse, both the 2024 GOP platform and Project 2025 are literally “playbooks” for overthrowing our constitution, hence our republic.
My dad was wise and extremely well informed as a history and government teacher early in his career and throughout his life. When it came to lying to win an argument, he always taught that, “if you must lie to win, you should probably change sides or your opinions.” He was right then and still is.
My very best for the rest of your week,
Paul
Hey FYI Substack does TERRIBLE things to images. You give it legible stuff, there's a good chance it'll turn it into a hopeless blur. You've got a bar chart up there on insurance and it's been stepped on bigly.