Trump, Xi, Putin and Modi, A New World Order?
There's no honor among thieves
TAT readers,
Welcome back from the long holiday break. I am hoping that everyone savored all the intended joy from just being grateful. Like any holiday gathering in the Trump era, I also hope that you escaped the animosity that is always near the surface between pro and anti-Trump family members. Today we will take on a topic that is a by-product of Trump’s election. It is also a topic so complex, that it will be a challenge to create a cohesive narrative about what lies ahead, from a foreign policy perspective. I will do my best to keep it as focused as possible. It is not that TAT readers are not bright enough for complex topics, but that even I, who has spent a career immersed in this field, will struggle to paint this picture clearly.
Onward
A Den of Thieves
For those old enough or otherwise have seen the original masterpiece movie, The Godfather, you will be familiar with the high-level meeting between the heads of the New York crime families, that determined who was entitled to what turf, profits and criminal enterprises. This is a terrific analogy to what Putin was talking about when just after our election, he congratulated president-elect Trump and declared, the beginning of a “new world order.” This is nothing new for Putin or Xi, who’ve been talking about this now for a couple of years. In fact, I have frequently written about the different prospects, from the perspective of US foreign policy.
A NWO or New World Order now has the potential to take on a variety of forms and each one presents a unique threat to all democratic nations as well as the organizations that they belong to, such as the G7, NATO or even the G20. A world best defined as the RBIO or Rules Based International Order, has been the loose system of global affairs that kept relative stability, since the end of World War II. Now, a collective of nations, largely run by autocrats or similar and allied with Russia, China, India or all three, wish to alter the RBIO, to the advantage of such autocracies. None of these nations are democratic in function, although a handful like India do claim to be democratic.
The RBIO vs. the Thug Club (BRICS +)
The rules-based international system "The post-World War II, rules-based international system, led by likeminded allies and partners, has produced unprecedented levels of peace, prosperity, and freedom, but it is coming under increasing strain. A foremost challenge to the system is the return of great-power competition with revisionist, autocratic states—especially China. The rules-based international system was constructed mostly by leading democratic allies at the end of World War II and was deepened and expanded by many other countries over time. The system is predicated on a set of norms and principles pertaining to global security, the economy, and governance. It consists of: a set of rules encouraging peaceful, predictable, and cooperative behavior among states that is consistent with liberal values and principles; formal institutional bodies, such as the United Nations (UN) and NATO, that serve to legitimize and uphold these rules, and provide a forum to discuss and settle disputes; and the role of powerful democratic states to help preserve and defend the system." - Strategic context: The rules-based international system - The Atlantic Council - By Jeffrey Cimmino and Matthew Kroenig - December 16, 2020
Two of the world’s largest economies, China and India, three of the world’s largest and best armed militaries, Russia, China and India, plus a multitude of nuclear armed states, and the majority of the world’s population, are all on the Eurasian continent. The only thing that has stood in the way of their pursuit of global autocracy has been the RBIO. Now, with Trump’s deep sycophancy for Putin, who is now subservient to Xi, threatens to add the US to their autocratic club. As we can see in the photo below, the primary leaders of BRICS + are not exactly the people you would trust your family’s safety to.
There are plenty who would argue that the US is still the most powerful nation on the planet, but what if we were aligned with the thug club, as represented by Xi, Putin, Modi and Trump? It is not just the major players either, that present a significant threat to the RBIO. Eurasia in particular hosts several more nations of weight that operate on the thug club principles. There’s Iran, N. Korea, the Afghanistan and other “Stans” along with Turkey, some of the Gulf States like Saudia Arabia, etc. Many of these nations also are members of BRICS + or the recently expanded BRICS group.
A primary agenda of BRICS + is to replace the dollar with a currency of their choosing, which at the moment, Xi in China would propose using China’s currency, the Renminbi or Yuan. It is the most used currency within BRICS + trading but has far less stability than the dollar. Replacing the dollar may be a long way off, but the goal remains a primary focus. With an ever-expanding BRICS +, the likelihood increases.
It’s not just international rules, but the deep rivalries between Xi, Putin, Modi and Trump
So, if we know that there is no honor among thieves, the competition between the four primary powermongers, Xi, Trump, Putin and Modi don’t so much represent an alliance to rule the world but a new approach to global stability. What I believe more likely is a geo-strategic game of “Survivor”, the TV show where a group of competitors lie, cheat and backstab, in order to win two million dollars. When it comes to global security, such competition is fraught with the danger of war, economic chaos and all the suffering that goes with either. The US would not be isolated from any of this danger.
For example, here’s but one of countless scenarios and one that is particularly dangerous. There is no love lost between Trump and Xi. Both want to rule the world. Trump only knows Mafia-styled aggression, and which is one of the reasons that he is so enamored of Putin. Xi is far more strategically oriented and has his China Dream via the BRI strategy to help him achieve his intended regional hegemony by 2023 and global by 2049. Trump and Putin are neither, strategic geniuses. They both depend exclusively on intimidation, immoral aggression and dishonesty.
Putin has become a junior partner to Xi since his failed invasion of Ukraine. He has had to beg and borrow support primarily from Xi, but also from Modi, Iran, N. Korea, South Africa and more. Putin is seething that he has allowed himself to become second fiddle to Xi. With Trump as an ally, Putin just may attempt to outmaneuver Xi. With Trump and likely also Modi, he would predictably have some success, but at what risk? There is no love lost between India and China which would push Xi to defend his China Dream, possibly via armed conflict. This would put Russian, US and Indian troops at war together, against China.
The question of Iran in such a conflict is still unwritten. Trump despises the Ayatollah and the IRGC, but Iran is allied with Russia and China. The Middle East, should it be so disrupted would be catastrophic to the global economy because neither China nor India’s behemoth manufacturing sectors have their own domestic oil resources. In fact, any such conflict that disrupts the global energy supply so drastically, would push the global economy into a scenario most don’t even wish to consider.
Again, this is just one of several potential conflicts that could ensue if the Thug Club couldn’t come to some sort of a sharing agreement. For those of us who are not among the oligarchical elite, even an equitable agreement between Xi, Putin, Modi and Trump would degrade our standard of living. Trump was disastrous for our economy in his first administration. Allying himself with other global autocrats whose own nations are abysmal human rights poster children, also share poor standards of living. Allying in support of global autocracy would deprive the planet of a leader capable of leading a coalition of nations fighting to retain both human rights and reasonable standards of living.
Speaking from experience, the first Trump administration hurt our NATO standing badly and with a Trump 2.0 administration, there will be zero trust among our allies. This has always been Putin’s plan when helping to elect Trump. As much as Trump wishes to be king, Putin a Tsar, Xi an Emperor and Modi a Rajah, each and every one of them, also have their eyes set on global domination. It doesn’t take a genius or history scholar to know that this doesn’t end well. The only people that suffer during a global conflict, are the troops and the innocent victims. At risk of losing my rights to being a lifelong optimist, I am very deeply concerned about our future, at home and abroad.
Profiles in Courage
The one bit of optimism that I will never relinquish is as follows. The Russian, Chinese and Indian people have all known domination in different forms. The identity of each has experienced conquest and domination. India still unofficially operates on a caste system where human beings of lower castes, never have expected to be treated equally or even humanely. Almost all Russians have a gene in their identity that reflects their serfdom at some point in their history. For more than four thousand years, the Chinese people have known the most brutal and massive oppression, which continues to this day.
Americans, with the exception of those with a slavery or native American heritage, have never known such servitude. Within the hearts of all of us, we do not have a gene that would accept such oppression without a fight. If Trump and his cowardly MAGA GOP push us much further, the Civil War 2.0 that they like to brag about, just may occur. If it does, Trump and his sycophants will lose, and our constitutional republic will be restored. The costs in lives, treasure and progress would be nationally debilitating.
The current SCOTUS would be purged of un-American ideologues like Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh. Congress would be purged of the for-hire congressmen. Local Trump thugs like the Constitutional Sheriffs would no longer be welcome in their home communities. Such purges are also not in alignment with American values but, like the end of our first civil war, purges do occur. We never wish to experience such a civil war again. The only answer to avoiding it is for all Americans, to stand up for our actual values now, not tomorrow. To do this, we must oppose in numbers, every single Project 2025 agenda item Trump intends to use, as a method to subdue the American people and overturn our constitution.
Such opposition is by definition, required to be loud and public. American values are not relegated to quiet reading rooms but draw their life and relevance, from the public square. As much as I understand that this is difficult for some Americans, your children’s and grandchildren’s future depends on your voice. We can avoid all the sobering and unusual pessimism on display in today’s essay. It just requires doing what Americans have always done in the face of aggression, push back and hard! I’m there and made my intentions known last week in my open letter to President-elect Trump. I didn’t spend close to three years in combat zones to be pushed around here at home by those who would destroy the nation I served.
A famous poem by Dylan Thomas captures my feelings about sustaining the republic our founders intended for us. I hope you will find it inspiring as well. I will not allow the nation and its principles I have always loved and defended to, “go gentle into that good night.”
Do not go gentle into that good night, Old age should burn and rave at close of day; Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Though wise men at their end know dark is right, Because their words had forked no lightning they Do not go gentle into that good night. Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay, Rage, rage against the dying of the light. Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight, And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way, Do not go gentle into that good night. Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay, Rage, rage against the dying of the light. And you, my father, there on the sad height, Curse, bless, me now with your fierce tears, I pray. Do not go gentle into that good night. Rage, rage against the dying of the light. - Dylan Thomas - 1914 –1953
My very best to all for your upcoming week,
Paul