When it comes to Modi’s India… Caveat Emptor
There is no difference between his leadership of the BJP and Trump’s leadership of MAGA hordes. This isn’t even the worst of it.
TAT readers,
Another short post today, but one that is critically important to US national security concerning India’s Prime Minister Modi, getting a high-profile welcome from the White House.
Yes, India, loosely considered the world’s largest democracy, is a potentially important strategic partner for the US, the Quad, ASEAN, AUKUS, NATO and more. This is never so true as in our collective efforts to stem China’s aggression. Still, we must be exceedingly cautious of Modi, his intent and his trustworthiness. The phrase, “trust but verify” should serve as the watchword for all national security professionals. I have major concerns about Modi and the willingness of so many national security professionals, who trumpet his partnership without all due caution.
On a normal day, this topic would be worthy of a series of articles, but today only time for a succinct word of caution to readers. Here are the salient points:
India’s status as the world’s largest democracy is more of a narrative than reality since Modi took over.
Modi, leader of the BJP is no different than Trump’s leadership of the MAGA hordes that now control the US Republican Party; xenophobic, violent, corrupt and dismissive of the rule of law, along with the civil rights of India’s non Hindu minorities.
Modi has inspired and enabled ethnic violence, primarily against but not limited to Muslim citizen’s. This violence and disenfranchisement has often turned violent to the point of being lethal.
Modi, still enables Putin’s genocidal war against Ukraine by being a tool of sanction evasion for Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping hold a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka on June 28, 2019. Mikhail KLIMENTYEV / SPUTNIK / AFP India’s military shares the use of Russian weapons and related systems with not only Russia, but with China and many other Putin-friendly nations. None of these nations are fully supportive of international law, norms and policies.
Russian weapons and systems have largely been full-scale failures on the battlefields of Ukraine.
India and China, two of the three largest global economies are supporting Putin is similar ways, despite their historical national paranoia of each other.
The Asian continent has at least, 5 nuclear armed states with another, Iran, a near nuclear armed state.
China’s BRI/ Belt and Road Initiative, or also commonly known as “Silk Roads,” are the skeletal support for Xi’s interconnected, global aggression. These SRs or Silk Roads are also the backbone for consolidating these two, major economies, 5 nuclear armed states and the majority of the globes energy resources.
Here’s the summary for this short and succinct PSA about Modi’s visit to our capital today:
An objective view would show us that India is well suited to partnership with nations and organizations, that are attempting to mitigate and diminish Xi’s aggression. India has a millennia old rivalry with China. India also has a very deep trade relationship with China, dating to centuries prior to the original Silk Road. To most, this sounds like India would be a natural fit regarding China, until… Putin began his genocidal invasion of Ukraine. Hold your horses. This alleged “natural fit” isn’t as clear as one would think, including many in my line of work.
Modi is living on a largely false narrative that allows his India to look appealing to the RBIO, or Rules-based international order. As the expression betrays, Modi’s alleged success leading India is very much a “smoke and mirrors” view.
Modi’s economic successes are much like those claimed by fake experts here in the States during the Trump administration. The so-called 1% wealth holders in India, like their US counterparts have done extraordinarily well while working classes still mostly struggle to make ends meet. Additionally, Modi’s hold on government entities is mostly ironclad and oppressive, which is again in direct parallel to the Trump administration, Putin’s, Xi’s and so many more.
Modi wields the Indian government as a weapon against those who stand in his way. High profile recent tactics include banning BBC media and blocking digital access to honest critics of Modi’s, dramatic deviance from democracy. On a personal note, I was banned from being read in India when on the LinkedIn platform, via a variety of methods, most revolving around the tactics employed by Indian Intelligence. To be in the same company as BBC bans, I see my ban as a badge-of-honor.
Part of India’s economic false narrative is that India is a top-tier manufacturer. The massive trade deficit they have with China says otherwise. There are plenty of other bright red flags too. India’s shortcomings regarding national infrastructure, are legendary and little improved under Modi. Both India and China must have access to Russian oil and gas. They also must have access to OPEC + fossil fuels to drive their, gasping for air manufacturing sectors. The symbiotic nature of globalization means the no country can make it without the strongest of allies, be they military, commercial, diplomatic, technology or otherwise.
The potential risks to the RBIO are hefty, when added together. In fact, when weighed against whether or not Modi can be trusted, finds the risks significantly outweigh the benefits… unless we and our allies are planning for less than credible trust. Make no mistake about it, I’m not critical of the majority of similarly cautious Indian citizens. It is they that are having their constitutional rights and guarantees, slowly but effectively limited or ignored.
The BJP, Modi’s violent hordes, are riding a tsunami of far-right extremism called, Hindutva, the violent extremist Hindu nationalists with control over the BJP Party, dominant in India today.
The bottom line to this entire article is that, yes, let’s work with India, but if Washington D.C. is not focused on the tried and true, “trust but verify” model, I don’t particularly see our partnership being all it has been advertised to be. Modi cannot continue playing India’s long history of alleged, Non-Alignment. His actions betray more alignment with Putin, Xi and their satellites states, than with what, western interests would have us believe.
Caveat Emptor
Best to all,
Paul
I am wiling to concede that you may be right about President Trump. My comment was made within the context that President Trump was the first US President whom I can remember who made such a public demonstration of the USA's changing attitudes toward India. This is not to denigrate the efforts made by others except to note that their endeavors were so low key as to be virtually invisible.
It has been an interesting few days in DC as the two freely elected leaders of arguably the world's two greatest democracies have met face-to-face for hopefully substantive discussions. The re-evaluation of America's bilateral relationship with India -- a process begun by President Trump -- has been long overdue. This is no longer your grandparents India where the Congress Party and the Nehru/Gandhi families ran the show It is long past time for official Washington to wake up and smell the curry. These are the new realities in South Asia and it behooves the USG to adjust its foreign policy in this region accordingly.