A PSA about our election in two weeks, plus a restack of MAGA's alternative reality based on fake patriotism.
TAT readers,
This is a rare Sunday essay. Yes, thank goodness it is a short one. It is two weeks from this Tuesday that we will decide by a political party that whether you agree with them or not, keeps their agenda between our constitutional guardrails and one that supports a demi-god, and an entire political platform designed to render our constitution a relic of history and replaced by the Four Horsemen of the MAGA Apocalypse. In order to help voters better understanding the depth of the threat, I am publishing this short TAT to better understand why we are fighting to sustain our constitutional republic from conspiracy theories, false narratives and overt and un-American lies.
Restacking this TAT/ Truth about Threats essay from last month is largely for those in the national security community that deal with influence. This essay details, along with the supporting sources, how the US has lost at NW/ Narrative Warfare for forty years plus, and there is little hope on the horizon operationally, nor in research. We can never win because we simply don't understand NW and far worse, we are not even on the battlefield.
Our election in two weeks is Narrative Warfare. Half of American voters believe and vote for an alternative reality. It is quite literally, this simple. That alternative reality is a complex series of false narratives that subconsciously allows those under its spell, to be predictably controlled by those behind the lies. In simplest terms, they cannot help themselves. The Soviets during the Cold War, called this Reflexive Control. With Russia playing such a significant role in MAGA politics since at least, 2014, this should come as no surprise.
The national security community's obsession with technology as the mechanism to solve four decades of abject failure to project US values and democracy or defend our citizen's cognitive security, is our most serious and present threat. If we cannot protect our citizens from foreign and domestic malign influence, half of our voters impacted by MAGA/ Russian influence ops, will grow into a majority. Their success will come, via insurgency plans like Project 2025 and the current 2024 GOP Platform, and both harken end our "great American experiment."
The Great Experiment: George Washington and the American Republic | The Morgan Library & Museum
The American Experiment Launched by Jefferson Goes On, Says Justice Breyer
In today’s restacked essay, I discuss early on, a bit about Narrative Warfare which is something that 99% of our national security community fails to understand at all. Afterwards, I walk you through the four primary Narrative and physical threats from MAGA. Each threat is full of supporting narratives that go wholly unaddressed.
Most are unaware of how they have been victimized by enemies of democracy, via Narrative Warfare. In fact, most of those under the spell of conspiracy theories, have no idea that they are being conned. - Conned, the conversion of the GOP conservatives into right-wing extremists - TAT/ Truth about Threats - Cobaugh - Aug 16, 2024
Neither U.S. Department of Homeland Security nor the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) who are mostly responsible for protecting us at home, have any understanding of Narrative Warfare. To make matters worse and as noted earlier, the entire community, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, National Security Agency and all entities subordinate to them are also, all but devoid of understanding, re: NW or how to operate with this core requirement for influence in support of national security.
We are just days from our national election and anyone that believes Trump voters will not vote for him, are wrong, dead wrong. Millions more Americans voted for him in 2020, than 2016, after four years of catastrophic leadership. This is what happens when you do not, nor even attempt to campaign with NW. Russian far-right ideology is largely the ideology of MAGA. They amplify and provide other assistance to MAGA to this day and yet, the national security community, has done nearly nothing, since 2016.
boondoggle noun [ C ] US informal an unnecessary and expensive piece of work, especially one that is paid for by the public: The senator called the new highways proposal "a fraud and a boondoggle that the taxpayer should not tolerate." - Cambridge online dictionary
Bottom line: we will lose our republic if we don't understand NW. Even the new, ridiculously expensive boondoggle called the National Center for Narrative Intelligence at the University of Mississippi, hasn't got a clue about narrative. It's just another waste of our tax dollars, like the billions we have wasted on similar nonsense for four decades.
The threat is real, and we aren't even on the cognitive battlefield.
My very best to all,
Paul
The four horsemen of the MAGA Apocalypse: Autocracy, Oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and Violence
The four horsemen of the MAGA Apocalypse: Autocracy, Oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and Violence
TAT readers,
I always begin my day with coffee and a careful review of morning headlines. As I took a tour of my favorite sources searching for a topic to write about, one popped up this morning from the AP, that reluctantly inspired today’s essay. I say “reluctant,” because I have intentionally avoided this topic when discussing the Trump/ MAGA threat to our constitutional republic. It is personally painful and historically painful, to anyone familiar with the devastating losses stemming from our Civil War, 1861-1865. No one that considers themselves patriotic, should ever incite violence against another citizen or other US resident… NEVER.
Inciting violence against fellow Americans is the actual “fourth horseman of the apocalypse” of MAGA ideology. I have written extensively on the other three, autocracy, oligarchy and Christian Nationalism, but today, I must address this formerly unspoken warning about the NI/ Narrative Identity of hardcore Trump/ MAGA voters.
The four elements of autocracy, oligarchy, Christian Nationalism and violence, are clearly primary parts of who they are, and it is not even a conscious thought, for a majority of MAGA devotees. Narrative Warfare occurs subconsciously in nearly all cases. MAGA devotees, have been in lay terms, brainwashed by a three decades long “conditioning” by FOX and other far-right propaganda outlets, Trump, his key influencers like Brad Parscale and of course, Russian influence operations. As noted, I have invested plenty of time at my keyboard, on all of these topics. Some of those essays, are listed below and which explain my positions in detail. For those with interest, I believe that you will find the background reading, as disturbing as it is dangerous to our republic and its citizens. These are merely the short list.
Conned, the conversion of the GOP conservatives into right-wing extremists (truthaboutthreats.com)
Without factoring "brainwashing" into the equation for 2024, we're doomed to another far-right, extremist administration, no matter what pollsters say. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Christian Nationalism and theocracy are the antithesis of democracy, not the foundation, as Putin and the US right would have us believe (truthaboutthreats.com)
The GOP war on women and all things gender. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Project 2025; part cheerleading, part war plan and all, bullets of BS, aimed at the heart of American Democracy. (truthaboutthreats.com)
The real Axis of Evil in the US is Russia, the MAGA controlled GOP and spineless Republican voters, putting party over country. (truthaboutthreats.com)
This restack from March, is the first of two TAT essays today: Oligarchy is an acute threat to democracy (truthaboutthreats.com)
Thugs, Despots, Dictators and Populists - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Yes, extremist politics increases the threat to a nation's national security. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Iran, Mike Flynn and MAGA, Christian Nationalists or.... (truthaboutthreats.com)
With the background and my intent for today acknowledged, let’s look at MAGA’s violent intentions.
Onward
Trump’s obsession for violent rhetoric is legendary or rather in my opinion, infamous. In an article in Politico back in August of 2016, journalist Michael Crowley wrote a long, excellently detailed article showing just a fraction of Trump and his MAGA hordes’ penchant, for violence against their political opponents. Now as we approach our national election, six weeks from tomorrow, the incitement has exponentially increased from 2016. The MAGA internet, regularly incites political violence in support of Trump and a violent civil war if he loses, or is jailed for his endless felonies, including espionage.
In May of 2020, ABC reporter Mike Levine published an article detailing 54 incidents where Trump/ MAGA rhetoric was involved in violence, threats and alleged assaults. Clearly and as any honest American already knows, this is who Trump and MAGA are, it is part and parcel of their identity. I use the word identity carefully as that it is a core field of focus in NW/Narrative Warfare, my specialty. Despite the US national security community’s resistance to understanding NW, it is the core of all influence operations. It is precisely those types of operations that altered the NI or identity of GOP voters.
As we all learned in high school science class while discussing Pavlov’s Dog, behavior can be incrementally altered over time. In narrative, this means that over time a person’s identity can be converted into something the complete opposite of what it once was. This is why that today’s MAGA Republicans falsely believe themselves “conservative” while that in truth, they are far-right extremists. The entities to blame are many but the two primary culprits are FOX News and Russian influence operations. What occurred is precisely what the Soviets intended throughout the Cold War, which continues to this very day. Originally called Active Measures and now the Gerasimov Doctrine, reflexive control is the intention. In lay terms, reflexive control means that influence operations can trigger predictable responses in audiences by experienced influencers, after they understand an audience’s identity.
What this describes is the heart and soul of Narrative Warfare. There are only two ways to understand such identity, and neither are understood by national security professionals. The first is to know how to analyze audiences’ identities or to build it incrementally over time. This is what FOX, mirroring Russian influence operations has done over thirty years. Now built, they can trigger their audiences to believe in and act on those beliefs, with a short message, colors, numbers, symbology or any combination of these. Like most decisions that humans make, 80-90 % are made subconsciously. This is what makes the “brainwashing” so dangerous when violent rhetoric is part of someone’s identity. The proof of this was January 6th and the historical spike in far-right violence, during the Trump era. That era is not over, and the coming election has been preprogramed to be defended violently within the most fully brainwashed MAGA crowd.
Below are several articles from excellent sources that clearly demonstrate Trump’s dependence and addiction to violence as a method to acquire whatever he wants. Like all malignant narcissists, he could care less about anyone but himself and will stop at nothing to satisfy his desires. This includes violence and as displayed in his persistent calls for violence in support of January 6th. He had his militias, an operational commander in former and disgraced LTG (R) Mike Flynn. To this day, leadership of the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers and 3%ers are jailed from their subservience to his false, destructive and anti-American narratives. Those narratives are still in play and supported by substantially more violent rhetoric than in 2020/ 21.
A handful of plentiful credible sources, supporting my claims:
Trump's intensifying rhetoric offers insight into how he might govern again as president | AP News
Donald Trump: Aggressive Rhetoric and Political Violence | Perspectives on Terrorism (icct.nl)
Excerpt from research by the ICCT/ International Centre for Counterterrorism
A New Era of Violent Rhetoric Began in 2015, and We're All in Danger | Opinion - Newsweek
Trump's MAGA movement nurtures violent threats. Don't ignore them (usatoday.com)
The MAGA Internet Calls for War - The Atlantic
The times Trump has advocated for violence (axios.com)
Trump supporters call for riots and violent retribution after verdict | Reuters
Summary
In the next six weeks and as we’ve seen all year now, violent Trump/ MAGA rhetoric will continue to grow in quantity and ferocity. Election Day will see us experiencing MAGA at a fever pitch in their uncontrollable support for Trump and his anti-American, MAGA key elements mentioned at the beginning of this short essay. By understanding Narrative Warfare and one of its core-principles regarding just how easily, indoctrinated extremists can be predictably and subconsciously triggered, should give everyone pause and hopefully, the Federal Government and local authorities will pay attention as well.
After nine years of overt and blatant MAGA rhetoric from the GOP and their Russian influence operations that support them, those still brainwashed by MAGA extremist ideology, are only more entrenched in that ideology. I am not predicting an all-out civil war but based on January 6th and the record expansion of hate crimes by the right, I do believe that there will be pockets of violence. We see this here in Texas regarding the intimidation of poll and election workers. Texas is not alone but we do have a governor and GOP that back anything MAGA says and does. There are no patriots left in elected Republicans. It is that simple. We see the same in Missouri where I was born and Ohio where I was raised. In fact, any so-called “red state” will look and act in similar fashion and have from the very beginning of the Trump era.
What MAGA wants is anti-American values and a destroyed constitution. The only answer is for every honest American, regardless of political beliefs, to vote MAGA to the curb, for good. There is value in having principled political belief systems competing for space in the public square, but the operable word is, “principled.” Based on this statement, the current GOP is devoid of principled conservatives for the sole reason, that those few still remaining have no voice. The GOP agenda now is very close to what we see in Russia who also embodies the aforementioned, “four horsemen of the apocalypse.” There is no place for these horsemen called, autocracy, oligarchy, White Christian Nationalism and violence, in the America our founders envisioned.
The current administration has put us significantly back on track, to rebuild after Trump and his MAGA hordes, attempted to dismantle our republic. We still have a way to go, in order to make that progress secure from another MAGA administration. There are responsibilities for everyone to do this, from your hometown, all the way up to the Oval Office. We will not get the chance however, if we don’t treat MAGA as the extremist movement that they are. The only question that matters to voters is whether or not they wish to live in a republic or a Russian styled autocracy.
Like all military and many Government workers, I swore a sacred oath when joining to, “protect and defend the constitution from all enemies, foreign and domestic.” Like nearly all people I know that have sworn that oath, I also believe that the oath has no expiration date. Now more than ever, our nation needs all of us, regardless of political “side,” to stand for the principles our brilliant founders expressed in our founding documents. I know where I stand and if you are reading this, I imagine you do as well.
Thank all of you for your patience and willingness to read TAT. I remain, humbly honored.
Paul