A threat advisory about April 19th and 20th, by Trump & the far-right GOP

Don't be caught unaware

TAT readers,

As noted, this past Monday, I’m attempting to bring a little shorter works to you, in order to inform you regarding the torrent of unconstitutional and un-American activities during the ongoing overthrow of our republic, by the MAGA GOP. Their daily Project 2025 Coup actions are simply too many to write in-depth essays about all of them. Today’s edition of TAT is about the many inquiries I receive about social media narratives regarding a Trump and GOP martial law declaration on April 20th, an auspicious day for the far-right.

In my long career in the national security world, threats are rarely seen as imminent or an absolute, yes or no. the IC/ Intelligence community operates on probability, low to high confidence and a variety of other partially ambiguous language. The reasons are simple; when it comes to most intelligence, declaring a threat absolute or no threat, is as rare as a Dodo Bird in the wild. Intelligence is as complex a profession as they come and this makes absolutism, even riskier than having no intelligence. Even when I write these essays, I still today, do what those outside of the IC would call “hedging my bets” regarding prediction.

With this explanation serving as an introduction of sorts, today’s article will be to discuss what could potentially be what I would currently assess as a low-probability threat, revolving around a couple of key days this month, April 19th and 20th. Both are significant days on the calendar for America’s far right and have been for decades. There are plenty of well-informed reasons to highlight these days to you, our family of readers. In my former military community, assessing threats and fully understanding an operational environment, are “must-do.”

The two primary reasons for this PSA of sorts, are below.

1. April 19th is the next Hands-Off rally across the nation and the world.

2. Far-right media has made repeated mention of April 20th as a day of importance to be paid attention to this year.

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Background

The ADL/ Anti-Defamation League, founded in 1913, have for years, warned citizens to be extra-vigilant, from April 15th - 24th. To be clear, the ADL is one of the most recognized centers for fighting hate and bigotry globally, and they partner with a wide variety of other excellent organizations with the same or similar missions. With our new, draconian extreme-right wing administration, this year’s warning should be taken very seriously. Still, threat situations evolve and while that my current assessment is “low probability,” threatscapes can and often do, change very rapidly.

Some of the dates to be aware of and vigilant for:

- April, the 15th, when income tax filings are due, is also noted by anti-government extremists.  The Michigan Militia, for example, has traditionally held a "TaxBlast" event to protest it.  This year, the event, renamed Militia Field Day, is occurring on April 16.

- Known planned celebrations include an April 16 event in Osceola, Indiana, hosted by the National Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, to celebrate the birthdays of both Hitler and Klan leader Ray Larsen.  They also include the "6th Annual Adolf Hitler Birthday Bash," scheduled for April 23 in Detroit, Michigan.  This hate rock concert is organized by the Northern Hammerskins each year and will feature hate music bands Max Resist and Final War.  Possible celebrations may take place in New Jersey and Florida, but details have not been finalized.

- Anti-government extremists pay more attention to April 19, which is the anniversary both of the violent end to the Branch Davidian standoff at Waco, Texas, in 1993, and the bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City two years later by Timothy McVeigh, in a twisted act of retaliation for Waco.  A variety of Oklahoma City bombing conspiracy theorists will be holding a two-day event, "OKC Bombing:  A Day of Truth 10 Years Later," in Oklahoma City on April 19-20, 2005.

Omen: The Lessons of Oklahoma City

- For white supremacists, the key April date is April 20, the anniversary of the birth of Adolf Hitler.  Each year, racists and anti-Semites schedule several events to celebrate the Nazi leader's birthday.  Because April 20, 2005, occurs in the middle of the week, this year such celebrations can occur on the previous weekend (April 16-17) or following weekend (April 23-24) as well. 

- Although not tied to any particular extremist group or movement, the anniversary of the tragic Columbine, Colorado, school shootings also falls on April 20.  This anniversary may seem more significant in the wake of the recent deadly school shootings in Minnesota.

- They also include the "6th Annual Adolf Hitler Birthday Bash," scheduled for April 23 in Detroit, Michigan.  This hate rock concert is organized by the Northern Hammerskins each year and will feature hate music bands Max Resist and Final War.  Possible celebrations may take place in New Jersey and Florida, but details have not been finalized.

- Extremists Look to April Anniversaries
- ADL Website
- April 6th, 2005

As readers can see from the ADL quotes above, their advisory was written in 2005. Considering that right-wing violent extremism has grown almost exponentially in the interim, the threat potential is now significantly more developed.

Part of this PSA is to weave in an integral part of the ongoing social media, “chatter.” This chatter refers to April 20th, being the day that Trump declares martial law. This probability is much harder to assess, largely due to Trump’s pining away for his long-held fantasy of being, a mafia Don, an all-powerful oligarch or his penchant for worshiping and emulating brutal despots like Hitler and Putin. He has also oft times pondered his absolute power in texts and other public utterances. This is in fact, a deeply held desire for him and that raises the risk slightly.

The constitution is silent on martial law, not even explaining who or who may not make the declaration. Still, it has been used some 60 times in our history, although most often during war or domestic armed conflict. Trump doesn’t care about precedent or in fact, the law. This also complicates a well-informed threat assessment. From where I sit, here in TX, things also look a bit more probable for such an act or even something similar, albeit still not terribly likely. I always reserve the right to be wrong and, in this case, I absolutely don’t wish to be wrong.

Another reason that I am hesitant to lend significant credence to such an event, is that Trump and the GOP’s, Project 2025, 180-Day Transition Playbook, is still far from accomplished. In other words, the pieces required for a successful martial law operation are not yet in place and may never be. Military leadership would likely be hesitant to respond as Trump requires due to their obligations to honor the UCMJ, Uniformed Code of Military Justice. Service members are not required to follow unlawful orders and the legal wrangling at the Pentagon would be fierce and time-consuming. During a crisis, time is of the essence and the GOP certainly don’t have their ducks all in a row at this stage of their coup.

Trump’s go-to tactic is brutal intimidation. His attempts at intimidation of American citizens is going poorly, despite the fact that media, law firms and other key elements of America’s economic infrastructure, have already rolled over and played dead. As an old guy I can tell you that I haven’t seen this level of unified resistance to the US government, since watching the protests and violence of the late sixties and early seventies, on the 6 o’clock news. The GOP has created a tinderbox, by their subservience to Trump, rather than their oath to the constitution.

One very sensitive factor that could play a significant role of increasing the threat assessment, is that April 20th is Easter and with White Christian Nationalism being one of the four primary elements of today’s GOP, it would be risky to rule out the most important day in Christianity, as a motivating factor for the MAGA GOP’s support, for such a move. Additionally, it is not uncommon for governments to select Friday nights and holidays as opportunities for controversial action. This tactic is far more common than most realize.

The last factor that I believe makes a more certain threat assessment possible, is that this is the second Trump/ GOP coup attempt. Jan 6th was the first and it was a classic case of domestic terrorism in support of a coup. The right is already familiar with violent participation in a coup attempt. There is no reason to believe that they won’t again.

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Summary

The only intent of this article is to offer a PSA/ Public Service Announcement regarding potential April threats. I’ve made clear my probability ratings of a low threat, but they are not out-of-the-question. Vigilance must be the watchword for all citizens, not just for martial law, but increased domestic, far-right extremist violence and the rest of America’s likely response to it. I’m not seeing a civil war type event at the moment, but if the Trumpian GOP keeps poking all Americans, the wrath of true patriots if pushed too far, will far exceed expectations.

I have long adhered to a closely held personal belief that, you cannot push a true American patriot too hard without a powerful response, not to your liking. Those coals are now glowing all across America and just waiting for a little breeze to turn them into a bonfire. Just review history books from the pre-civil war period and you will find the same.

I hope this essay quells, at least some of the fears that I been asked about privately and publicly. Remember the lessons also from pre-war Europe in 1939, “appeasement is a failed strategy.”

Back on Friday and my very best for your “hump day.”

Paul