An honest Iran narrative, not the media's and especially not the White House's

"All the world’s a stage, and all the men and women merely players" - William Shakespeare

TAT readers,

As I mentioned yesterday in a “read-ahead” essay, I will offer a wider perspective on the situation in Iran, that I find extremely disturbing in its national security implications. The reason that I restacked the “read-ahead” is that although it was about a different topic, it is largely about the relationships between major powers, their strategic ambitions and their interactions with all Middle Eastern states. In the case of the ongoing wars between Israel, Iran and primary, genocidal terrorist organizations in the region, the potential for a domino effect that scales globally, is much higher than media and especially this woefully incompetent White House, will admit.

As I noted in yesterday’s essay, I have zero intention of fear-mongering. What follows is simply me, attempting to offer a truthful perspective regarding the current threat (s) emanating from the escalation of conflict in the region. So here’s the premise of this essay.

The Middle East has long been a long sought after strategic prize, for warring superpowers. No, not just in our modern era, but dating back to the beginning of recorded history. This is what we are watching again, and in real-time. Greed, poor or non-existent strategy and violent indifference to the plight of the region’s inhabitants, have long been defining traits of maintaining power at this “crossroads of the world.” 

That Trump felt the need to directly involve the US, without a post-strike strategy, is unconscionable and just plain… idiocy. You and I along with the rest of the world, will be the ones to bear the burden of said, “idiocy,” should a war or series of conflicts occur. This is not just about the military, but about a conflict that embodies all the levers of national power. Now, let’s talk about this a bit deeper, so that we can all better understand.

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First and foremost, the US military and our NATO allies, have long operated with a keen eye on what we call, Great Power Competition or GPC for short. In its simplest form, GPC is nothing more than primary global powers, like the US, Russia, China and as many believe, India, jockeying for position around the globe in order to become the next primary superpower. This takes many forms, such as building a booming economy, prepositioning large military resources where they serve as intimidation, altering the rules of the RBIO/ Rules-Based International Order in a manner that confers advantage to the nation changing the rules. There are plenty of other tactics in GPC, but I imagine all of you get the point with just this handful.

Great-power competition (GPC) is a touchstone for strategists and policymakers. Its popularity stems from perceptions of China’s rise, Russia’s resurgence, and the United States’ relative decline. The term’s notoriety in policy circles is related to its use in U.S. national defense and strategy guidance documents. Sometimes GPC is dismissed as a buzzword, but it is a distinctive phenomenon that deserves scholarly investigation.

GPC is a classic feature of modern international relations grounded in a traditional power politics approach. Specifically, GPC is a permanent, compulsory, comprehensive, and exclusive contest for supremacy in a region or domain among those states considered to be the major players in the international system. The contest varies in intensity over time and space but remains a persistent aspect of the international system of sovereign 

- Great Power Competition
- Jonathan - M. DiCicco and Tudor A. Onea
- International studies
- Oxford University Press
- January 30th, 2023 

I would imagine that by now, you’re asking yourself how this talk of GPC, connects to the situation in Iran and other engaged, neighboring states. It is the right question and the answer is simple, it is because that is what all of this conflict is primarily about for the superpower type nations. Russia, China, India and of course, the US have deeply entrenched interests in the region, largely built around three issues. The first is the region’s critically important strategic location, secondly, access to the region’s fossil fuels and finally, religious dominance by Muslim regional powers that believe religious dominance will secure their nations, without large, capable militaries.

I don’t name Muslim nations for the sake of my own religious beliefs nor from any bias, but because they are in fact, the owners of nearly all of the territory in the region. Even in Israel, the Muslim population is roughly 20% of the population and three quarters of those, are ethnically Arab. In all of the Middle East, only the Israeli Christian population is not declining and is in fact, slowly increasing. We are all too often distracted by the wars of religious fervor, but this pales in comparison to the struggle for strategic posturing and access to massive fossil fuel reserves by superpowers. This issue is rarely discussed openly and honestly by superpowers or wannabes.

Everyone is entitled to their own religious beliefs, so long as these are not the motivations for conquest and the all too common, regional episodes of intended genocide. Super powers like Russia and China have no problem inciting and supporting genocidal activities by terrorist movements like Hezbollah and Hamas, to name just a couple. After all, Putin’s intent in Ukraine is no different than Xi’s in China against the Uyghur population and other minorities. These two nations are our biggest concern in the GPC game, but ever since Putin’s failed conquest of Ukraine, they, along with their dirty tricks lapdog, Iran, have taken a far more aggressive and intensely violent turn, especially via Putin’s Russia. Today’s Middle East is one such example.

Without Russian weapons, doctrine, training and supervision, both Hezbollah and Hamas would have been little more than lightweight terrorist movements. Both are hellbent on Israeli genocide, even in their official charters and doctrine. Russia enabled all of this and Iran did their dirty work for them. China’s connectivity with Iran is based largely on oil and access to a critical region where they wish dominance by 2049. They are already well on their way with major investments in Israel, Turkey, Egypt and so on.

This is how the BRI/ Belt and Road Initiative works for Xi, build infrastructure and then bring in Han Chinese workers for the well-paying jobs and isolate locals as laborers. The three defining characteristics of Chinese ascension are, predatory financial agreements, human rights abuse and military intimidation. So long as Iran takes care of the human rights abuse against Iranians, Xi gets to keep his hands clean but still, he has economic leverage over Iran.

GRAJEWSKI: Iran's relationship with China is primarily more economic focused. China is one of the largest investors of foreign direct investment in Iran. They have quite a bit of investments when it comes to Iranian ports. And, of course, China imports a lot of Iran's oil through teapot refineries, and so that relationship's quite crucial when it comes to the economic dimension.

- Iran's relationship with Russia and China could come into play after U.S. strikes
- NPR Interview with Ayesha Rascoe
- Nicole Grajewski of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- June 22nd, 2025

Putin on the other hand has been forced to deeply depend on Iran’s military sector to produce drones, assist him in evading sanctions and a variety of other supporting military oriented activities and products. Putin’s military failures are nearly as prominent as were the last Tsar’s efforts during WW I. That failure cost Tsar Nicholas and his entire family, their lives. So far, Putin is surviving but without Iran’s manufacturing sector to support Russia, he must find another capable supplier or give up his gains acquired, when the Trump administration gave him the opportunities. This Monday, the 23rd, Iran went crying to Putin for help. Putin’s answer wasn’t exactly what they had hoped for either.

In my opinion, Putin has found Iran to be an expendable ally. Now that Putin has set up an Iranian styled drone manufacturing operation in Russia, Tehran’s value to Vlad, is shrinking. The competition for Iran’s substantial oil reserves is still a primary factor in their viability, but that door is also beginning to look worrisome too. Currently, China buys roughly 90% of Iranian oil and at a steep discount due to sanctions on Iran. China’s oil is a must have for Xi and his response will be critical to watch in the coming days, especially if any attacks focus on oil infrastructure. Despite Iran’s ad nauseum threat to block the Straits of Hormuz and deny the world the very oil they need to drive their economies, this is in my opinion, a longshot.

What Is the Strait of Hormuz and Why Is It So Important? | TIME

The blocking the Straits of Hormuz strategy may hurt all of us for a little while, but it will also lead directly to intense economic pain in Iran, where the regime is perpetually aware of their fragility, as to remaining in power. The truth is, Iran’s production of oil, really only matters to Iran and China unless there is a semi-permanent downturn in their production and marketing of oil. Not very likely. If it were to occur, we could see oil going for as much as $120 per barrel. This would hurt everyone, especially us, the consumers worldwide.

The world just has too much oil 

Oil analysts call it "the fundamentals" of the oil market: supply and demand, how much of the stuff the world needs and how much it makes. Lately, demand has been growing slowly, thanks in part to an underwhelming Chinese economy. Supply, though, has been booming, in part because OPEC and its allies keep putting more barrels on the market. The market is oversupplied. That pushes prices down — and it means there's less panicking about something that could potentially cut into supplies.

- Why a war in the Middle East hasn't sparked an oil crisis
- NPR
- Camila Domonoske
- June 25, 20255:00 AM ET

Where does this leave the US and why is this so dangerous?

Our relative strategic position would have been far stronger, had we not participated in the Israeli assault on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Yes, it is true that we have the only weapon that could penetrate deep enough with the explosives capable of shutting down Iran’s pursuit of a weapon. Sadly, over the past twenty four hours, the reporting appears to show that our success was less than originally broadcast by the Trump/ GOP administration. Trump, Hegseth and Republicans in general, have become quite testy about this issue, but facts are facts. One of the scariest aspects of our strike against the Iranian nuclear facilities is that we do not know at this time, if their enriched Uranium had been relocated prior to the strike.

Look everyone, I have no doubt that our crews and their teams did excellent jobs on this dangerous and difficult mission. These crews train relentlessly and are exceptional, but this was first known operational use of this particular weapon. The target was built to withstand such efforts and without independent confirmation, there is no reason to believe this perpetually dishonest administration’s claims that the nuclear program was “obliterated.” Professionally speaking, I believe that substantial damage occurred to the program but to call it “obliterated” is over the top until we see verifiable evidence.

The point of rebutting the administration’s claims of eradicating the Iranian nuclear program is that if this turns out to not be true, Trump and his band of merry misfits and incompetents, will now be faced with a far more difficult decision, go to war to achieve success or simply slink away and move on to their next, drama queen event. They are though attempting a last-ditch effort to “market” their claims of obliteration with a “full court press.” Frankly, with the exaggerated hate and discontent spewing from both Trump and Hegseth, I sense that their claims are at best, partially true. For the world’s sake, I hope to be wrong.

No one needs to convince me of Iran’s commitment to terrorism and as of 1984, the US has identified them as a state-sponsor of terrorism. This theocratic terrorist regime in Tehran, is a top tier evil-doer. Mass casualty terrorist activities around the world, opponents in Iraq where their IEDs, improvised explosive devices took a huge toll on US and allied servicemen. Some of us encountered some of their more elite assets in Afghanistan too, where IED technology had been shared by Iran, with the Taliban.

Let’s not lose sight of the plight of the Iranian people. These people have been suffering horribly under the government for decades. The point here is that Iranians are in my opinion, as fiercely loyal to their country as they are hateful of the Ayatollah and his cruel regime. If boots-on-the-ground are required to finish the job regarding nuclear weapons, such a decision would be fraught with peril. Iran has a long history of not being overly fond of the US and for good reasons.

First, along with Britain, we assisted in the overthrow of their first democratically elected leader and this has left an ugly taste in their mouths. Just when they had rid themselves from their cruel, dictatorial Shah, we put him back into power. Supporting that brutally oppressive Shah until the 1979 revolution, kept that bad taste in their mouths. Not coming to their aid when massive demonstrations against their government put them close to overthrowing that government, hasn’t helped either. Trump, Hegseth, Gabbard etc. have now put us into a no-win situation with Iran and her people. In the eyes of the Iranian people, America walks on thin ice.

I would be remiss if I didn’t add a note or two about Putin and Trump’s seemingly fading bromance. Look, Trump in all actuality is not very bright and in the past few weeks, I believe Netanyahu bullied Trump into supporting this strike. To be clear, I feel like “Bibi” is little different from Trump but has a substantial advantage in intelligence. Like Trump, Bibi is looking to resurrect his career and stay out of prison. Before Oct 7th’s Hamas massacre, the overwhelming majority of Israelis took to the streets for months in support of removing him from office. Once Israel had cleared a corridor for our bombers, Trump likely couldn’t help himself and took the bait. There is a great deal more to this that is not for public consumption, but based on credible reporting, there is a strong likelihood that Trump was “played.”

Another internal issue for Bibi in his redemption tour, is that Israel has substantial Russian and Ukrainian populations, largely Jews or those claiming to be Jews in order to emigrate to Israel, when the old Soviet Union opened the door to Israel in the 1970s. It wasn’t until 1990 though that the floodgates were thrown open wide, seeing over three hundred thousand former Soviet Jews emigrate to Israel in just a couple of years. Bibi has also had disturbances in his semi-bromance with Putin. Currently, they are on the outs and I doubt if Putin lost any sleep over the Hamas attack on Israel. I also doubt that Bibi lost any sleep over thrashing Putin’s best war-buddy Iran. Now, Bibi needs all the support that he can get and forceful war agendas have partially kept him in power. Attacking Putin’s ally Iran, may have earned him some extra votes from Ukrainian and Russian Jews in Israel.

Trump falling for ruses is nothing new. Putin has been playing him for years, maybe decades if reporting is accurate. He has certainly given Putin just about everything he wanted, except the keys to the White House. Now that the bromance shows signs of degradation, he’s angry that not only did Putin play him, but he continues to deprive Trump of success regarding his claim of a peace deal with Ukraine and between Israel and Iran.

The entire administration has been a failure. Only one tariff deal (Great Britain), no trade deals, no battlefield successes, failure in his cruel, illegal immigration agenda and for all of us who aren’t oligarchs, no improvement in our economy. Most campaign promises are stagnant at best and utter failures at worst. On top of Trump and the Republican’s failures, Putin’s very public humiliations were too much for our cognitively challenged malignant narcissist, in the Oval Office.

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Summary

As you can see from this already too long essay, the Middle East is always a pile of shouldering coals that sees Trump, Putin, China, Iran and Israel, using bellows to turn into a raging wildfire. There are countless pitfalls in the current situation. Personal agendas between world leaders, millennia of turf and religious wars, economic factors, mistakes and countless other factors that we take into account when mission planning. Good military planning comes with contingency planning or… what will I do if things don’t go as planned. This administration never looks past their toes and I don’t believe for a second that we are ready to engage in another Middle Eastern war, nor support the combatants as required. Like the kids game Jenga, one wrong move and the whole structure comes tumbling down.

I was raised to stay quiet if I couldn’t say something nice about someone, but our current administration calls for me to break this rule. Pete Hegseth must be replaced by a competent SECDEF and one that isn’t a drunk and a racist like Pete and his buddies. His management of DoD has been far worse than a catastrophe. The majority of our armed forces will defend their oath, not Pete and Donny’s sham fascist regime. We cannot go to war with a force so low in morale as to be only partially engaged in their duties. We cannot go to war with a force that is being intentionally converted to an all-white Confederacy, 2.0. We especially cannot go to war without professional expertise leading, planning and executing.

We must never go to war when our administration lies daily about everything. This causes more chaos and endangers our troops for the selfish, power-hungry current administration. We have had our intelligence failures throughout our history but it’s quite different when the CIC/ Commander-in-Chief refuses to even read intelligence. Even if he did, he would lie about it anyway. I’m not just taking “cheap shots” at the idiots in the administration, it is their very own fact-check history, that shows the veracity of my claim.

As disturbing as what I have written seems, it is only the tip-of-the- proverbial-iceberg. Our military has suffered enough with Beltway generals and so-called, experts. Now, we must add, incompetent, immoral and profiteering to that list of this administration’s character traits. Their sheer ignorance has already degraded our world class military. Their greed and incompetence undermines it even worse. Our men and women of our military, deserve professional leaders. They deserve leaders who are not obsessed with only, “lethality,” and they sure as hell deserve leaders who won’t lie to them daily.

I hope that today’s essay gives everyone a wider perspective on what is occurring in the Middle East. There are excellent reporters in the national security community and some extraordinary ones like Jeff Stein of SpyTalk. I highly recommend finding those reporters who are not cowed by the media moguls into lying for or minimizing the harm that these Trump Republicans are doing to our nation.

Last but not least, what we must be most concerned about in this crisis, is not whether the targets were, “obliterated” but rather the big picture, that discusses the dangers of ignorantly managed GPC. This is about who ends up on top in the Middle East and what they will do to achieve it.

My friends, if we allow Trump and his clowns to steer our ship of state into peril, it is our own fault that it sinks. If we do not put an end to this MAGA/ Republican regime, our ship of state will have shrunk to a dingy (pun intended) and will slip beneath the waves.

My kindest regards to all for your weekend,

Paul