Good analysis. While, as of 26 June, the threat of war seems to have abated, I still feel that there is more to problems to come. Sure Iran could take the billions of dollars worth of incentives to drop its program, but I just can’t see them doing it. After this recent attack they will still pursue their nuclear desires. I hope that with Netanyahu being distracted by his ongoing criminal trial we can focus at least for a little while on the domestic issues that are plaguing our country.
Oh, I believe that there will still be war in the region..just not at this time.
Whether Israel, Russia or Iran (including its proxies), none are “mission ready” at this time.
Netanyahu is undergoing political turmoil in his country and many other politicians may not want the political risk of Israel getting hit with another bomb. Everyone eventually tires of war.
“An Israeli court has rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to postpone upcoming hearings in his ongoing corruption trial, dismissing the argument that his national security duties following the recent conflict with Iran should exempt him from appearing.”
Thank you KI. I'm not quite ready to assume that the threat of war has passed in this instance. The region is always simmering and I foresee less than all-out war conflicts on the horizon. On top of the normal issues nations go to war for, religious and turf issues are embodied with a hair trigger in the Levant. When major power dynamics are altered, there will be sufficient friction to light a match. They may or may not directly involve the US but they will definitely affect our national security posture. Let's not forget that old adage that says, "when there is a power vacuum, someone will rush in to fill it." A largely decapitated Iran, with diminishing value to Putin as their "big brother" creates somewhat of a vacuum. They have no friends in the region aside from their terrorist thugs in a variety of extremist groups. This makes them vulnerable to millennia old adversaries among the Sunni states and all of those states come with superpower backing to some extent. This requires someone as astute as former president H.W. Bush who knew the region and its leaders quite well. His management post the first Iraq war, was very impressive. Now we have an administration beholden to Putin and neither Putin nor Trump give a damn about the people in the region.
I sincerely wish that you are correct regarding no war, however, I will remain quite cautious going forward. I see China as a wild card of sorts and will be watching them very closely.
Paul, I know how difficult it is for you to criticize Democrats, Liberals and Progressives when you find Republicans and Conservatives so much more enticing to vilify, but I did catch one glimmer of hope for a return to even handed analysis in this post when you wrote: "... Not coming to their aid when massive demonstrations against their government put them close to overthrowing that government, hasn’t helped either. ..." I know this is hard for you to do this, so let me help: the reason we did not come to the aid of the Iranians during the "Persian Awakening" or "The Iranian Green Movement" of 2009-2010 is spelled O-B-A-M-A. See, now that is not so difficult, is it? With a little more practice I think we can restore the fair and balanced analysis that I know you are so profoundly capable of producing.
You've been trolling my essays and other social media posts for nearly a decade, with your MAGA ideology and overt dishonesty. You have never once provided a credible source for your claims and to be frank, I simply don't understand how the friend I had, could be so dishonest. Yes, it is painful to have to say these things to you publicly but you have given me no choice.
What credibility you once held as a fine intelligence analyst has evaporated along with your honor. If you cannot be honest, I warn you now, that I will simply delete any and all comments that cannot be supported with credible sources. I refuse to allow my essays to be your vehicle for MAGA, un-American propaganda. If you wish to preach MAGA, start your own Substack publication. It is not welcome here.
Good analysis. While, as of 26 June, the threat of war seems to have abated, I still feel that there is more to problems to come. Sure Iran could take the billions of dollars worth of incentives to drop its program, but I just can’t see them doing it. After this recent attack they will still pursue their nuclear desires. I hope that with Netanyahu being distracted by his ongoing criminal trial we can focus at least for a little while on the domestic issues that are plaguing our country.
Oh, I believe that there will still be war in the region..just not at this time.
Whether Israel, Russia or Iran (including its proxies), none are “mission ready” at this time.
Netanyahu is undergoing political turmoil in his country and many other politicians may not want the political risk of Israel getting hit with another bomb. Everyone eventually tires of war.
“An Israeli court has rejected Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s request to postpone upcoming hearings in his ongoing corruption trial, dismissing the argument that his national security duties following the recent conflict with Iran should exempt him from appearing.”
https://newscentral.africa/israeli-court-denies-netanyahus-bid-to-delay-corruption-trial/
Agreed and thanks for adding.
You are welcome.
Thank you KI. I'm not quite ready to assume that the threat of war has passed in this instance. The region is always simmering and I foresee less than all-out war conflicts on the horizon. On top of the normal issues nations go to war for, religious and turf issues are embodied with a hair trigger in the Levant. When major power dynamics are altered, there will be sufficient friction to light a match. They may or may not directly involve the US but they will definitely affect our national security posture. Let's not forget that old adage that says, "when there is a power vacuum, someone will rush in to fill it." A largely decapitated Iran, with diminishing value to Putin as their "big brother" creates somewhat of a vacuum. They have no friends in the region aside from their terrorist thugs in a variety of extremist groups. This makes them vulnerable to millennia old adversaries among the Sunni states and all of those states come with superpower backing to some extent. This requires someone as astute as former president H.W. Bush who knew the region and its leaders quite well. His management post the first Iraq war, was very impressive. Now we have an administration beholden to Putin and neither Putin nor Trump give a damn about the people in the region.
I sincerely wish that you are correct regarding no war, however, I will remain quite cautious going forward. I see China as a wild card of sorts and will be watching them very closely.
Paul, I know how difficult it is for you to criticize Democrats, Liberals and Progressives when you find Republicans and Conservatives so much more enticing to vilify, but I did catch one glimmer of hope for a return to even handed analysis in this post when you wrote: "... Not coming to their aid when massive demonstrations against their government put them close to overthrowing that government, hasn’t helped either. ..." I know this is hard for you to do this, so let me help: the reason we did not come to the aid of the Iranians during the "Persian Awakening" or "The Iranian Green Movement" of 2009-2010 is spelled O-B-A-M-A. See, now that is not so difficult, is it? With a little more practice I think we can restore the fair and balanced analysis that I know you are so profoundly capable of producing.
My friend,
You've been trolling my essays and other social media posts for nearly a decade, with your MAGA ideology and overt dishonesty. You have never once provided a credible source for your claims and to be frank, I simply don't understand how the friend I had, could be so dishonest. Yes, it is painful to have to say these things to you publicly but you have given me no choice.
What credibility you once held as a fine intelligence analyst has evaporated along with your honor. If you cannot be honest, I warn you now, that I will simply delete any and all comments that cannot be supported with credible sources. I refuse to allow my essays to be your vehicle for MAGA, un-American propaganda. If you wish to preach MAGA, start your own Substack publication. It is not welcome here.
Regards