In Latin America, our adversaries are playing chess while the US national security community, plays checkers.
The error of ignoring LATAM
TAT readers and subscribers,
Like most subjects regarding threats to our national security, today’s topic is very complex, steeped in complicated history and yet, a topic that our national security community mostly ignores, until a crisis arises. The crisis is now at our doorstep… again. My fear is that like most knee-jerk reactions from those alleged experts in the strategy world, we will again default to a cursory understanding of the threat and throw together an ad hoc response. Defending the Americas, needs a real effort that is resourced, sustained and that elevates the nations within our hemisphere to true partnership.
Southern Command’s commander, General Laura Richardson has worked hard to raise interest in mitigating the Chinese, Russian and Iranian threats in LATAM, but I’ve seen this show before. Our follow-through at the national level, just rarely seems to maintain their interest.
It is not that the wolf is at our door here in the Western hemisphere, but more like Xi’s dragon, Putin’s bear and of course, the terrorist thugs from Tehran. They are also not simply, “at our door” but tearing it down while the natsec community does their usual pontificating rather than acting. This is called, PbA or Paralysis by Analysis. Even if we had a real strategy and resourced it, we have entirely lost our former proficiency to campaign in support of those objectives. Congress will forestall funding, pundits will take us down rabbit-holes and a whole hemisphere of oligarchs, will ensure that nothing of substance comes to pass, that may limit their rape of the resident nations’ resources.
Add to this harsh but accurate assessment, that the US and often our allies, are impotent in campaigning in support of a strategy, and you can see how it is us, not Xi, Putin and the Iranians, that have left the backdoor unlocked, standing wide-open and beckoned the competition to come in.
One of the few major US and allied security strategies that managed to survive multiple administrations, was the Cold War against Russia and the Warsaw Pact. Some of the deals we made with less than ethical regimes around the world during the Cold War, have come back to bite us and bite with a whole new set of teeth. Some of these were in LATAM and which followed on top of even older failed excursions into LATAM. Our history in LATAM is complicated, to say the least. Still, this does not mean that we cannot do all possible to build and sustain new, far better-grounded relationships. The only question is, “will we?”
Background
The US and our allies are and have been for roughly a decade, looking at the world through the lens of GPC/ Great Power Competition. I agree with this approach but wish that there would be more focus on how all of our current challenges and wars, are deeply tied to this competition. Ukraine is a key element of the global competition landscape. It is critical to Xi’s BRI/ China Dream and Russia herself is even more important to Xi’s global dominance strategy. Xi, the bromance’s senior partner, needs Putin or one like him in power, to maintain the type of Russia that supports his China Dream Strategy. Ironically, the war in Gaza is as well. Both of these issues have been discussed at least tangentially on TAT and below are a couple of links to those essays that go deep into the explanations.
LATAM, Argentina and global security. - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
US National Security means giving Central and South America real attention, and honesty. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
When it comes to India under Modi, it's Caveat Emptor (truthaboutthreats.com)
Part I: The roadmap to mitigating Xi’s aggression is called: “Using the BRI as a non-kinetic, Targeting Diagram. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Seeing Xi's China threat, clearly - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
US National Security means giving Central and South America real attention, and honesty. (truthaboutthreats.com)
"Great Power competition (GPC) is a framework for understanding global interstate relations that dominated global political affairs for centuries prior to World War II. Many past GPC eras have featured multiple powerful states jockeying for relative status and position. During the Cold War (1945–1991), GPC played out as a two-state competitive dyad between the United States and the Soviet Union. After lying dormant during a relatively short two-decade period of post–Cold War globalization and American international ascendance, the construct of GPC returned to the vocabulary of international relations and security studies in earnest during the late 2010s.1" - Strategic Assessment 2020 - National Defense University Press - Thomas F. Lynch III
In short, GPC is the competition to see which nation or group of nations, gets to dominate global affairs. The US has long, either been a part of or led a group of nations in ensuring that the RBIO/ Rules Based International Order prevailed rather than other belief systems such as the communism of the Cold War.
"The international order established by the victorious allies after the Second World War has been remarkably enduring. The framework of liberal political and economic rules, embodied in a network of international organizations and regulations, and shaped and enforced by the most powerful nations, both fixed the problems that had caused the war and proved resilient enough to guide the world into an entirely new era." - Challenges to the Rules-Based International Order - Chatham House
During the Cold War, the US and our allies all over the globe, battled to keep markets, commerce, peace etc. safe from Communism. Now that this threat has no real-world significance, the same effort is applied to competitors like China, Russia, India, etc. The dominant ideology in our modern times is liberty vs. fascism, not liberty vs. communism. These types of efforts cannot not see success from any single nation but requires strategy and collective activity from many nations. This is why on the Putin, Xi, Iran side, BRICS is expanding with the nations aligned with the three primary thugs of modern global realignment. India under Modi, an original BRICS member, still calls herself “non-aligned” but their interests overlap with the Xi/ Putin side more than the West.
So, what does all of this have to do with LATAM?
During the Cold War, LATAM was a primary front in the contest to have dominant influence in the Western hemisphere. It is again a frontline battle to retain unimpeded sovereignty in the Americas, and has been acutely so, since Xi came to power in 2012. Now that Putin is Xi’s junior partner and Iran does the dirty work for both of them, Xi has far more leverage. This correlates to him having more advantage than he had, unilaterally.
In many respects historically, LATAM has suffered a similar fate as Africa. From colonization up through and well past the Cold War, the continent has been seen largely as a place where superpowers and greedy oligarchs, could strip the continent of her rich natural resources, for the cost of then Soviet weapons and a big brother at the UN. The US also made some tough choices to back harsh dictators and authoritarians, simply to deny the Soviets. The only difference now, is that the Soviets have been replaced by Russians and Putin is in a subservient role since Xi bailed him out in Ukraine. Iran also has played a serious role on the continent, especially in regard to terrorism, and facilitation of their fellow thugs.
In South America, the dedication of most states to a primary relationship with China has cost Taiwan traditional nation-state supports and some BRICS expansion has also invaded the continent. To date, only Argentina has deviated from overt Chinese subjugation regarding Taiwan. The new somewhat enigmatic president, Javier Milei, has taken a couple of definitive steps to become more aligned with the West, than China, who has made several inroads into Argentina, related to Xi’s BRI.
China has built a large, deep space station in Argentina’s south and continues to pressure the nation for a port in Ushuaia. Argentina also is part of the Lithium triangle along with Chile and Bolivia which contains roughly half of the world’s Lithium deposits, a key component of batteries. Xi’s BRI is the mechanism for expanding Chinese influence globally and is laser focused on controlling transportation infrastructure. The graphic below from Boston University, is startling in how much Chinese influence has grown, just in the past couple of years.
Russia not only has her legacy connections in LATAM but is now expanding efforts in a number of ways that broadens the leverage of the relationship between Xi and Putin in the South.
One recent event that demonstrates Putin’s anti-US reach into our elections, is his use of “weaponized migration.” The short version goes something like this; Putin has encouraged his friends, allies and nations over which he has leverage, to put their refugees on ships and planes and transport them to Cuba, where they are transported to his buddy in Nicaragua, Daniel Ortiz. From there, they begin their trek north to our Southern border.
This massing of foreign refugees highlights Putin’s overt support for a GOP, fully controlled by the Trump/ MAGA wing of the party. This allows immigration to remain a hot, popular, “red meat” item of the GOP campaigns in the 2024 election. Also, this fits nicely into Trump’s demand that Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, refuse to consider the mostly Republican Bill that addressed the Southern border and provided aid to Ukraine. Both are key and powerful narratives in today’s MAGA world, regardless of their falseness. This, issue, including the data from the Customs and Border patrol data are included in the essay at the link below:
Separating the Wheat from the Chaff about our Southern Border. (truthaboutthreats.com)
As for Iran, they are already well known in LATAM and not in a very favorable way. They have bent over backwards to deepen their presence south of our border. Embassies in 11 nations and military cooperation in four, is extremely dangerous, considering that Iran is Putin’s favorite “go-to” for doing his dirty work in specific situations. Just last week Argentina recognized one of the two horrific terrorist attacks by the precursor to Iran’s Quds Force/ Unit 840, in Buenas Aires. One act against the Israeli Embassy and the other against a Jewish community center. This is still a painful scar to many Argentines.
Argentina has a longstanding and notable Jewish community, pretty much since the years after the beginning of the Inquisition. Mass immigration of Sephardic Jews began somewhere around between 1860-1880. Her new president, Javier Milei, has made it clear where he stands on Ukraine and is continuing to build a supportive relationship with her. He’s planning a large summit in Buenas Aires later this year and Zelenskyy, even flew to Buenas Aires for Milei’s inauguration. The bond between the nations, is quite real.
What all of this background tells us is that a new “Axis of Evil,” in hierarchical order of; China, Russia and Iran is well embedded in South America. The threats are real, not only to LATAM but to the US, Canada and in fact, all global democracy.
As we stand currently, Putin’s genocidal war in Ukraine is wearing LATAM patience thin, very thin. Knowing the financial and labor abuses that comes with Chinese BRI investments in LATAM is also becoming far more suspect and uncertain. Iran’s last decade or so of intense efforts to deepen their presence in LATAM is now also beginning to show signs of being tolerated less. This though is not enough. We nor LATAM can afford to wait and see what the outcome will be for a continent dominated by an Axis of Evil. We must act collaboratively and as soon as possible. Milei, despite his less than attractive social agenda, is at least choosing to nudge Argentina away from the Axis and end up on the right side of history. Although Argentina has a memorandum aligning them with the BRI, the enthusiasm has waned.
Now may be very late, but there is no time like the present to begin new and trusting relationships with our Southern neighbors. This time though, we must maintain and work towards more equitable relationships built on pursuing a better “greater good” that is good for all parties and all citizens. Sometimes, I believe that we fail to acknowledge that human investment means more in the long run than writing checks. Supporting despots and authoritarians is not the answer unless there is measurable evidence towards better human rights, fair commerce, security guarantees etc. We here in the states, could use some of this improvement too.
The threats posed by the Axis, are real and acute, for the entire hemisphere. In our modern world, only collaboration is the effective answer to global threats. Simply being a superpower is no longer enough. If we are to claim our democratic values, enhancing neighborly collaboration with our neighbors on this topic, simply makes the neighborhood safer for all. There is as they say, “a lot of baggage” between the US and our Southern neighbors but it cannot be jettisoned, unless we put in the work. One thing for sure, Xi, Putin and the Iranian terrorist regime won’t work together on these topics. They will simply dictate what they want and coerce participants into providing their demands.
From a US/ Western democracy perspective, deep and sustainable partnerships in LATAM, will end up being one of the most effective answers to Great Power Competition. If we don’t collaborate, nation by nation, western nations will succumb to a modern version of collective colonialism, where citizens become essentially, serfs in the Russian and Chinese style. In actuality, The China Dream Strategy is pursuing global domination via a tributary system with China at the top. I had the high honor to sit on a panel discussion on this topic at Catholic University in Buenas Aires a couple of years ago. Sadly, it was during COVID, which prevented participating in person. One day perhaps.
Final comments:
In the end, all of the nations in the Americas are far better off unified than owing anything to nations operating without restraint when it comes to either the law or moral codes. The Axis is such an example. Since global collective security is the only answer to sustaining and improving the RBIO, it needs to become codified, protected and enforced. This deprives those nations who wish their own selfish system that disadvantages everyone else, must be managed in an effective manner.
Only effective cooperation can achieve such a result. We may approach this from different perspectives or a less formal arrangement, as do Brazil and Argentina in how they manage Xi’s BRI, but it must be done. Xi, Putin and Iran, mean no good for anyone but themselves. This is fact and all of them display their commitment to authoritarian dominance in their daily activities and cooperation. This sounds to me, to be the best reason for improving cooperation in the neighborhood. This time let’s get it right.
My best,
Paul