Upon reflection I think we are saying substantially the same thing only using different terminology. For example, is not "mirror imaging" the same or at least similar to "seeing what they wanted to see?" Likewise I agree with you that Narrative Identity Analysis is critical to understanding cultural nuances that while crystal clear to the native population are totally opaque to the outsider. Unfortunately, that type of analysis, so dependent upon the "squishy" sciences, is neither sexy nor is it bright and shiny.
As for both phrases being the same... I partially agree. Seeing things “we want” is not quite the same as seeing things framed via our own identity. Even seeing what we don’t want and acknowledging it occurs via the phenomena of narrative between our ears. We just reframe things subconsciously and in a manner that gives it unique meaning based on our own unique ID. Seeing what we want w/o narrative insight is something like the entire GOP believing that the “election was stolen.” For the MAGA crowd especially, their operative narratives allowed them to believe what they wanted due to being seduced by GOP and Russian Intelligence operatives. The rest of the GOP simply declares what they want, despite knowing the truth. This is a good example to see the difference.
Here is another well reasoned analysis on "Putin the Lucky" by Ambassador Michael McFaul. Reflects my own thesis that Volodya is tactically brilliant but strategically myopic. It should also be noted that Putin's "luck" was facilitated by US and European leaders who saw in Putin what they wanted to see and not the actual reality.
As usual my friend, we are mostly in agreement. The only slight suggested consideration of difference is that I am not completely convinced that a couple of decades of US leadership, “saw what they wanted to see,” or if it is more a case of our most significant defense/ IC vulnerability... mirror imaging. As we’ve often discussed, the US has an Achilles heel in that, we see things exclusively through how we would see things, but not as our adversaries do. This flaw has been the basis for our failures in Iraq, parts of Africa and Afghanistan. It’s one of the reasons that I am so adamant about Narrative Identity Analysis. If done properly, the true picture comes together with significantly improved, predictability.
In amidst all the whack-a-Republican posts, I thought you might find this report on the Wagner Group by The Atlantic Council as part of their Global Sanctions Dashboard to be of interest:
Among the key takeaways in their research are these two nuggets:
Despite sanctions and efforts to curtail the Wagner Group’s illicit activity, the group has successfully evaded financial sanctions through a series of facilitators and front companies around the world.
$5 billion: That's how much the Wagner Group has made since 2017 mainly from mining, illicit gold trade, and forestry business in Africa, as well as funding from the Russian state.
As part of their research, The Atlantic Council cites a June 2013 USG White Paper "Africa Gold Advisory" which uses Prigozhin's Wagner Group activities in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Sudan as a case study. (To which I add, better late than never as I was following this activity at least five to seven years ago.)
I am familiar with many of the names and shell companies associated with Prigozhin and the Wagner Group mentioned in this White Paper but from different sources. It is reassuring that the USG is finally showing some interest in Prigozhin's "commercial interests." Now if he was only engaged in enhancing global warming then Washington would really get interested.
Greatly appreciate the links and sources. Indeed, the key to disrupting oligarchical aggression is removing the funding streams… or rather dismantling them, would be even better. The Threat Finance folks have long had a great focus and some impressive successes. The key here is an expanded network of global partners that have the will and resources to contribute.
IMO, protecting wealth and maintaining access to Prigozhin’s hidden assets is one reason that he’s still above ground. Putin needs those who facilitate the activities that Prig has the networks to enable.
It is interesting to note the degree of success that Moscow (and by extension Wagner PMC) has had in Africa--first Sudan, then CAR, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Libya and other locations by now as well. I remember reading from other sources a suggested thesis that Russian/Wagner success in Africa was in part due to the old Soviet Union policy of educating bright young Africans at Lenin University in Moscow. Decades later these former students have risen to positions of power and influence in these countries and still retain fond memories of their student days in Russia. Thus, according to this theory, these leaders would be predisposed to giving Russia/Wagner an opening to move into their countries.
Two other factors at play would be latent animosity amongst African leaders toward their former colonial masters, the UK, France, Portugal, etc., coupled with the long standing USSR/Russian Federation narrative of being the friend of the oppressed masses suffering at the hands of the Western Imperialists.
It is perhaps perplexing why the same suspicions are leveled against Washington since the US never colonized any part of Africa. One possible explanation has been Washington's inexplicable pattern of ignoring investment in Africa for anything other than petroleum products in the Gulf of Guinea. With the exception of President George W. Bush's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) I can't think of any major initiatives undertaken by Washington in Africa,
One of the Russia experts that I follow is Mark Galeotti. His recent observation encapsulates some of the strangeness in the recent Wagner mutiny.
“It’s likely that this is the start of the real endgame… most crucially of all it was the spectacle of the security forces in the main not joining Wagner, but nor did they act to stop Wagner. They sat back and just thought, let’s see how this all plays out.”
There is one other possible explanation for the lack of response by Russian security forces to the Wagner mutiny. Because Wagner is a mercenary force it operates outside the purview of counterintelligence and the security units that ordinarily monitor the loyalty of the military. Therefore the GRU, SVR and FSB never saw this revolt coming.
This still does not fully explain the lack of a response by the Kremlin once Wagner's tanks started rolling toward Moscow. There may be some credence to Galeotti's thesis that Russia's security forces (to include Zolotov's Rosgvardiya) all took a "wait and see" attitude to these events. If that is the case then Volodya may have more problems than just a few unhappy mercenaries.
Agreed on all of your points, especially regarding the importance of following Galeotti. Since Russia is really in its modern sense, an oligarchy-based government, few understand oligarchy and its sibling threat of organized crime, as does Galeotti.
You and I specifically agree that this so-called coup attempt has many unknown facets None of those facets are good for the long-suffering Ukrainian people, and not in the slightest worthy of peace negotiations that reward Putin's aggression.
Here are some interesting stories from various sources on the firing of Russian Major General Ivan Popov, call sign "Spartacus", the former commander of 58th Combined Arms Army. Taken as a whole these reports shed some corroborative light on Yevgeniy Prigozhin's mutiny. If true, these news stories indicate a significant degree of dysfunction within the Russian military. If nothing else, the mere fact that Popov's criticisms went public in Russia is breathtaking in its own right regardless of their impact on the Kremlin.
With a nod to Sherlock Holmes, among the many curious aspects to the recent events in Russia is the inactivity of Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov and Viktor Zolotov, Commander of the Rosgvardia (roughly translated as "Russian National Guard") following Yevgeniy Prigozhin's monumental temper tantrum. This series of articles by CEPA highlights some of this strange behavior by both Kadyrov and Zolotov as well as others in the Kremlin hierarchy.
Setting aside Kadyrov for the time being and focusing on Zolotov, his actions going forward may be the most interesting to observe as this article by TIME magazine indicates.
About the only substantive piece of information so far in the public record is the acknowledgement that Zolotov attended the "peace talks" between Putin and Prigozhin following Wagner's 24 June mutiny.
Two additional articles provide useful background information on Zolotov and help to place him within Putin's inner circle. They may also provide some possible clues as to Zolotov's future actions.
It is still far too early to speculate on the fallout from Prigozhin's antics but I would suggest that Zolotov bears watching, not least because he commands the 400,000 strong Rosgvardia, an organization described as a cross between Caesar's Praetorian Guard and the Waffen SS.
Two recent thought piece articles on Russia, Putin and Prigozhin for your consideration.
The first is by Ambassador Michael McFaul on "Putin the Weak." McFaul's thesis is that actions and decisions by Putin that on the surface appear to manifest strength are in actuality signs of weakness.
The second is by Oleksandr Shulga, writing for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), discussing the "Age of Prigozhin." Regardless of whether or not Prigozhin is dead or alive, Shulga's thesis is that Yevgeniy represents a new type of political figure who "chooses mutiny and violence rather than political rallies and discussions" to achieve his ends. Part of Prigozhin's success, Shulga claims, lies in his ability to speak to Russians "in the language of criminal romance, a cult of violence, homophobia, and a lack of responsibility and trust in civil society." It will be interesting to see if others duplicate this recipe.
I will admit that being proven right fills me with a certain sense of schadenfreude. But then, we at least had the proper type face fonts and color palette on our PPT slides. That should count for something in the grand scheme of national security.
A late update to this post: PBS Frontline aired a special (11 July) on Putin's Crisis with Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC. Here is their synopsis:
"With Vladimir Putin facing down a mutiny, FRONTLINE examines how the Russian leader reached this moment of crisis. Veteran filmmaker Michael Kirk and his team examine the story of Putin’s rise, his clashes at home and abroad, and how his troubled Ukraine war led to the greatest threat yet to his grip on power."
Overall, the FRONTLINE analysis runs parallel my earlier paper on "The Once and Future Czar" which also analyzed Putin's rise to power from the relative obscurity of a mid-level KGB officer of mediocre success. While obviously I would not have the most recent data on Volodya his present actions remain in line with our projections of his behaviors as he aged. Just proves that it is a bitch to be right.
While on this topic, here is an interesting companion piece from an earlier (31 Jan 2023) FRONTLINE broadcast, "Putin and the Presidents." Here is the synopsis to this episode:
"FRONTLINE investigates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s clashes with multiple American presidents as he’s tried to rebuild the Russian empire. Veteran filmmaker Michael Kirk (Putin’s Revenge, Putin’s Road to War) and his team trace the miscalculations and missteps of U.S. presidents over five administrations, culminating in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine."
Many thanks Doc. I will certainly see these. I also saw a report today suggesting Prigozhin may be dead. Still following up.
Also and for the record... too bad no one paid attention to your earlier writings on this and related topics. It's your turn to say, "I told you so." ;)
Paul, I think you may have misread my original post. I was speaking of a showdown between Shoigu and Prigozhin, not Gerasimov. Based on the historical record, Shoigu and Gerasimov have established a very effective and professional working relationship in stark contrast to their many MoD/CGS predecessors. Of all the possible post-Putin scenarios one might care to spin for future Russian leaders, a tandem of Shoigu/Gerasimov is perhaps the most intriguing however implausible it may sound.
Two quick thoughts on the recent events in Russia:
1) In any showdown between Sergei Shoigu and Yevgeniy Prigozhin, bet on the Russian Defense Minister.
2) The events surrounding the recent coup (?) mutiny (?) joy ride with tanks in Rostov-on-Don (?) call to mind Sir Winston Churchill's description of Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." About all that we can be sure of, again to quote Churchill, is that "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
It will be interesting to see if Yevgeniy Prigozhin will reprise the role of Ernst Rohm in a Russian version of "Night of the Long Knives."
All excellent input my friend, including the historical quotes. Agreed regarding Shoigu’s edge over Gerasimov. The only thing that gives me pause is that Gerasimov did play effective roles in Chechnya for Putin. He’s capable of playing hardball but should have no fears of Shoigu to trigger his darker side. Sometimes I wonder if there might not be a precedent setting dual leadership role, that has them sharing the top job. Considering the centuries long snake pit that seems to dominate elite Russian leadership levels, it might just be the most prudent solution. It’s also one that the West would likely approve of.
Both very good and thanks Doc. Shulga is actually declaring that the key supporting narratives to Putin far-right thuggish behavior, are largely the same as we’ve seen throughout our current wave of rabid populism and nationalism. Key proponents of this far-right trend have been Putin, Trump and Bolsonaro and Modi. Trump and Bolsonaro are now at least temporarily out so we have a chance to at least restore some semblance of stability but only a continued effort by the majority rather than apathy can reduce their threats on a long term basis.
As for McFaul, he’s been a reliable and expert voice worth paying close attention to.
I agree with your assessment that people tend to see things as they want to see them. A mental process often aided and abetted by mirror imaging. ("If they look like us then they will act like us.") Another fine example of this phenomena would be Democrats and Administration officials claiming that Washington has full control of the US/Mexican border while FBI Director Christopher Wray in Congressional testimony said “very serious criminal threats” were coming across the border. I guess rather than seeing unnumbered hordes of illegal immigrants swamping our borders the Administration sees legions of future Democrat voters. Here is another fine example of cognitive dissonance.
Upon reflection I think we are saying substantially the same thing only using different terminology. For example, is not "mirror imaging" the same or at least similar to "seeing what they wanted to see?" Likewise I agree with you that Narrative Identity Analysis is critical to understanding cultural nuances that while crystal clear to the native population are totally opaque to the outsider. Unfortunately, that type of analysis, so dependent upon the "squishy" sciences, is neither sexy nor is it bright and shiny.
As for both phrases being the same... I partially agree. Seeing things “we want” is not quite the same as seeing things framed via our own identity. Even seeing what we don’t want and acknowledging it occurs via the phenomena of narrative between our ears. We just reframe things subconsciously and in a manner that gives it unique meaning based on our own unique ID. Seeing what we want w/o narrative insight is something like the entire GOP believing that the “election was stolen.” For the MAGA crowd especially, their operative narratives allowed them to believe what they wanted due to being seduced by GOP and Russian Intelligence operatives. The rest of the GOP simply declares what they want, despite knowing the truth. This is a good example to see the difference.
Hi Paul,
Here is another well reasoned analysis on "Putin the Lucky" by Ambassador Michael McFaul. Reflects my own thesis that Volodya is tactically brilliant but strategically myopic. It should also be noted that Putin's "luck" was facilitated by US and European leaders who saw in Putin what they wanted to see and not the actual reality.
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/why-vladimir-putins-luck-ran-out/
V/R
Doc B
As usual my friend, we are mostly in agreement. The only slight suggested consideration of difference is that I am not completely convinced that a couple of decades of US leadership, “saw what they wanted to see,” or if it is more a case of our most significant defense/ IC vulnerability... mirror imaging. As we’ve often discussed, the US has an Achilles heel in that, we see things exclusively through how we would see things, but not as our adversaries do. This flaw has been the basis for our failures in Iraq, parts of Africa and Afghanistan. It’s one of the reasons that I am so adamant about Narrative Identity Analysis. If done properly, the true picture comes together with significantly improved, predictability.
Hi Paul,
Interesting commentary from RUSI in light of the recently concluded NATO conference in Vilnius.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/after-nato-summit-are-we-already-war-russia
The discussion on messaging is particularly interesting, particularly when one asks the question: "Is what they say actually what they mean?"
V/R
Doc B
Hi Paul,
In amidst all the whack-a-Republican posts, I thought you might find this report on the Wagner Group by The Atlantic Council as part of their Global Sanctions Dashboard to be of interest:
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/econographics/global-sanctions-dashboard-sanctions-alone-wont-stop-the-wagner-group/?mkt_tok=NjU5LVdaWC0wNzUAAAGNHDti_OzoAUu5KDqRqSl08rdxa1wjf9FDBC7vyX9OY4LLKblLEf_Ftb3-p7eLwyo7qoPCBNXV4Ph0XXdIuj3d09fefRnzt0vcaJsfIxfT-LXsJXpB8PXSYzs
Among the key takeaways in their research are these two nuggets:
Despite sanctions and efforts to curtail the Wagner Group’s illicit activity, the group has successfully evaded financial sanctions through a series of facilitators and front companies around the world.
$5 billion: That's how much the Wagner Group has made since 2017 mainly from mining, illicit gold trade, and forestry business in Africa, as well as funding from the Russian state.
As part of their research, The Atlantic Council cites a June 2013 USG White Paper "Africa Gold Advisory" which uses Prigozhin's Wagner Group activities in the Central African Republic (CAR) and the Sudan as a case study. (To which I add, better late than never as I was following this activity at least five to seven years ago.)
https://ofac.treasury.gov/system/files/2023-06/africa_gold_advisory_06272023.pdf
I am familiar with many of the names and shell companies associated with Prigozhin and the Wagner Group mentioned in this White Paper but from different sources. It is reassuring that the USG is finally showing some interest in Prigozhin's "commercial interests." Now if he was only engaged in enhancing global warming then Washington would really get interested.
V/R
Doc B
My friend,
Greatly appreciate the links and sources. Indeed, the key to disrupting oligarchical aggression is removing the funding streams… or rather dismantling them, would be even better. The Threat Finance folks have long had a great focus and some impressive successes. The key here is an expanded network of global partners that have the will and resources to contribute.
IMO, protecting wealth and maintaining access to Prigozhin’s hidden assets is one reason that he’s still above ground. Putin needs those who facilitate the activities that Prig has the networks to enable.
Great reading and gracias,
Paul
Paul,
It is interesting to note the degree of success that Moscow (and by extension Wagner PMC) has had in Africa--first Sudan, then CAR, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mozambique, Libya and other locations by now as well. I remember reading from other sources a suggested thesis that Russian/Wagner success in Africa was in part due to the old Soviet Union policy of educating bright young Africans at Lenin University in Moscow. Decades later these former students have risen to positions of power and influence in these countries and still retain fond memories of their student days in Russia. Thus, according to this theory, these leaders would be predisposed to giving Russia/Wagner an opening to move into their countries.
Two other factors at play would be latent animosity amongst African leaders toward their former colonial masters, the UK, France, Portugal, etc., coupled with the long standing USSR/Russian Federation narrative of being the friend of the oppressed masses suffering at the hands of the Western Imperialists.
It is perhaps perplexing why the same suspicions are leveled against Washington since the US never colonized any part of Africa. One possible explanation has been Washington's inexplicable pattern of ignoring investment in Africa for anything other than petroleum products in the Gulf of Guinea. With the exception of President George W. Bush's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) I can't think of any major initiatives undertaken by Washington in Africa,
V/R
Doc B
Hi Paul,
One of the Russia experts that I follow is Mark Galeotti. His recent observation encapsulates some of the strangeness in the recent Wagner mutiny.
“It’s likely that this is the start of the real endgame… most crucially of all it was the spectacle of the security forces in the main not joining Wagner, but nor did they act to stop Wagner. They sat back and just thought, let’s see how this all plays out.”
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/commentary/podcast/what-just-happened-the-wagner-mutiny/
There is one other possible explanation for the lack of response by Russian security forces to the Wagner mutiny. Because Wagner is a mercenary force it operates outside the purview of counterintelligence and the security units that ordinarily monitor the loyalty of the military. Therefore the GRU, SVR and FSB never saw this revolt coming.
This still does not fully explain the lack of a response by the Kremlin once Wagner's tanks started rolling toward Moscow. There may be some credence to Galeotti's thesis that Russia's security forces (to include Zolotov's Rosgvardiya) all took a "wait and see" attitude to these events. If that is the case then Volodya may have more problems than just a few unhappy mercenaries.
Agreed on all of your points, especially regarding the importance of following Galeotti. Since Russia is really in its modern sense, an oligarchy-based government, few understand oligarchy and its sibling threat of organized crime, as does Galeotti.
You and I specifically agree that this so-called coup attempt has many unknown facets None of those facets are good for the long-suffering Ukrainian people, and not in the slightest worthy of peace negotiations that reward Putin's aggression.
Hi Paul,
Here are some interesting stories from various sources on the firing of Russian Major General Ivan Popov, call sign "Spartacus", the former commander of 58th Combined Arms Army. Taken as a whole these reports shed some corroborative light on Yevgeniy Prigozhin's mutiny. If true, these news stories indicate a significant degree of dysfunction within the Russian military. If nothing else, the mere fact that Popov's criticisms went public in Russia is breathtaking in its own right regardless of their impact on the Kremlin.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/13/world/europe/russia-generals-ukraine-turmoil.html
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/top-russian-general-fired-for-telling-kremlin-the-truth-about-war-in-ukraine/ar-AA1dS0Un
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russian-general-fired-telling-truth-ukraine-war-popov-rcna94011
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-13/ouster-of-russian-general-spartacus-sparks-ruling-party-feud
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/07/13/ivan-popov-ukraine-russia/
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/14/1187644890/russian-general-fired-for-being-critical
Kadyrov and Zolotov: Two Dogs That Did Not Bark
With a nod to Sherlock Holmes, among the many curious aspects to the recent events in Russia is the inactivity of Chechen strongman Ramzan Kadyrov and Viktor Zolotov, Commander of the Rosgvardia (roughly translated as "Russian National Guard") following Yevgeniy Prigozhin's monumental temper tantrum. This series of articles by CEPA highlights some of this strange behavior by both Kadyrov and Zolotov as well as others in the Kremlin hierarchy.
https://cepa.org/article/the-prigozhin-uprising-the-aftermath-and-what-comes-next/
Setting aside Kadyrov for the time being and focusing on Zolotov, his actions going forward may be the most interesting to observe as this article by TIME magazine indicates.
https://time.com/6290766/zolotov-putin-prigozhin-russia-wagner/
About the only substantive piece of information so far in the public record is the acknowledgement that Zolotov attended the "peace talks" between Putin and Prigozhin following Wagner's 24 June mutiny.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/putin-is-struggling-to-solve-his-prigozhin-problem/
Two additional articles provide useful background information on Zolotov and help to place him within Putin's inner circle. They may also provide some possible clues as to Zolotov's future actions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261
https://en.atomiyme.com/general-viktor-zolotov-biography-and-interesting-facts-from-life/
It is still far too early to speculate on the fallout from Prigozhin's antics but I would suggest that Zolotov bears watching, not least because he commands the 400,000 strong Rosgvardia, an organization described as a cross between Caesar's Praetorian Guard and the Waffen SS.
Hi Paul,
Two recent thought piece articles on Russia, Putin and Prigozhin for your consideration.
The first is by Ambassador Michael McFaul on "Putin the Weak." McFaul's thesis is that actions and decisions by Putin that on the surface appear to manifest strength are in actuality signs of weakness.
https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/why-he-may-soon-be-remembered-as-putin-the-weak/
The second is by Oleksandr Shulga, writing for the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), discussing the "Age of Prigozhin." Regardless of whether or not Prigozhin is dead or alive, Shulga's thesis is that Yevgeniy represents a new type of political figure who "chooses mutiny and violence rather than political rallies and discussions" to achieve his ends. Part of Prigozhin's success, Shulga claims, lies in his ability to speak to Russians "in the language of criminal romance, a cult of violence, homophobia, and a lack of responsibility and trust in civil society." It will be interesting to see if others duplicate this recipe.
https://cepa.org/article/russia-enters-the-age-of-prigozhin/
Some additional pieces of information on events in Russia:
"General Armageddon" is reported to be "resting." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-general-surovikin-is-currently-resting-lawmaker-says-2023-07-12/
It looks like CAGS Gerasimov has kept his job (and his head): https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/general-gerasimov-russias-top-soldier-appears-first-time-since-wagner-mutiny-2023-07-10/
Meanwhile another Russian general is now at room temperature: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66171638
And finally, he should have turned off his Fit-Bit: https://nypost.com/2023/07/11/russian-submarine-captain-killed-by-assassin-on-morning-run/
Also, nothing to report on "Where in the World is Yevgeniy."
I will admit that being proven right fills me with a certain sense of schadenfreude. But then, we at least had the proper type face fonts and color palette on our PPT slides. That should count for something in the grand scheme of national security.
Hi Paul,
A late update to this post: PBS Frontline aired a special (11 July) on Putin's Crisis with Prigozhin and the Wagner PMC. Here is their synopsis:
"With Vladimir Putin facing down a mutiny, FRONTLINE examines how the Russian leader reached this moment of crisis. Veteran filmmaker Michael Kirk and his team examine the story of Putin’s rise, his clashes at home and abroad, and how his troubled Ukraine war led to the greatest threat yet to his grip on power."
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/putins-crisis/
Overall, the FRONTLINE analysis runs parallel my earlier paper on "The Once and Future Czar" which also analyzed Putin's rise to power from the relative obscurity of a mid-level KGB officer of mediocre success. While obviously I would not have the most recent data on Volodya his present actions remain in line with our projections of his behaviors as he aged. Just proves that it is a bitch to be right.
While on this topic, here is an interesting companion piece from an earlier (31 Jan 2023) FRONTLINE broadcast, "Putin and the Presidents." Here is the synopsis to this episode:
"FRONTLINE investigates Russian President Vladimir Putin’s clashes with multiple American presidents as he’s tried to rebuild the Russian empire. Veteran filmmaker Michael Kirk (Putin’s Revenge, Putin’s Road to War) and his team trace the miscalculations and missteps of U.S. presidents over five administrations, culminating in Putin’s invasion of Ukraine."
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/documentary/putin-and-the-presidents/
One disclaimer -- You will find duplication of video segments between these two broadcasts. Enjoy.
Many thanks Doc. I will certainly see these. I also saw a report today suggesting Prigozhin may be dead. Still following up.
Also and for the record... too bad no one paid attention to your earlier writings on this and related topics. It's your turn to say, "I told you so." ;)
Paul, I think you may have misread my original post. I was speaking of a showdown between Shoigu and Prigozhin, not Gerasimov. Based on the historical record, Shoigu and Gerasimov have established a very effective and professional working relationship in stark contrast to their many MoD/CGS predecessors. Of all the possible post-Putin scenarios one might care to spin for future Russian leaders, a tandem of Shoigu/Gerasimov is perhaps the most intriguing however implausible it may sound.
Two quick thoughts on the recent events in Russia:
1) In any showdown between Sergei Shoigu and Yevgeniy Prigozhin, bet on the Russian Defense Minister.
2) The events surrounding the recent coup (?) mutiny (?) joy ride with tanks in Rostov-on-Don (?) call to mind Sir Winston Churchill's description of Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." About all that we can be sure of, again to quote Churchill, is that "This is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
It will be interesting to see if Yevgeniy Prigozhin will reprise the role of Ernst Rohm in a Russian version of "Night of the Long Knives."
All excellent input my friend, including the historical quotes. Agreed regarding Shoigu’s edge over Gerasimov. The only thing that gives me pause is that Gerasimov did play effective roles in Chechnya for Putin. He’s capable of playing hardball but should have no fears of Shoigu to trigger his darker side. Sometimes I wonder if there might not be a precedent setting dual leadership role, that has them sharing the top job. Considering the centuries long snake pit that seems to dominate elite Russian leadership levels, it might just be the most prudent solution. It’s also one that the West would likely approve of.
Both very good and thanks Doc. Shulga is actually declaring that the key supporting narratives to Putin far-right thuggish behavior, are largely the same as we’ve seen throughout our current wave of rabid populism and nationalism. Key proponents of this far-right trend have been Putin, Trump and Bolsonaro and Modi. Trump and Bolsonaro are now at least temporarily out so we have a chance to at least restore some semblance of stability but only a continued effort by the majority rather than apathy can reduce their threats on a long term basis.
As for McFaul, he’s been a reliable and expert voice worth paying close attention to.
Thanks again for the supplying great reading.
I absolutely did. Yes, Shoigu is a hands down favorite vs Prigozhin.
I agree with your assessment that people tend to see things as they want to see them. A mental process often aided and abetted by mirror imaging. ("If they look like us then they will act like us.") Another fine example of this phenomena would be Democrats and Administration officials claiming that Washington has full control of the US/Mexican border while FBI Director Christopher Wray in Congressional testimony said “very serious criminal threats” were coming across the border. I guess rather than seeing unnumbered hordes of illegal immigrants swamping our borders the Administration sees legions of future Democrat voters. Here is another fine example of cognitive dissonance.