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Dr. Gary W. Buffington's avatar

Hi Paul,

Here is another well reasoned analysis on "Putin the Lucky" by Ambassador Michael McFaul. Reflects my own thesis that Volodya is tactically brilliant but strategically myopic. It should also be noted that Putin's "luck" was facilitated by US and European leaders who saw in Putin what they wanted to see and not the actual reality.

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/why-vladimir-putins-luck-ran-out/

V/R

Doc B

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Paul Cobaugh's avatar

As usual my friend, we are mostly in agreement. The only slight suggested consideration of difference is that I am not completely convinced that a couple of decades of US leadership, “saw what they wanted to see,” or if it is more a case of our most significant defense/ IC vulnerability... mirror imaging. As we’ve often discussed, the US has an Achilles heel in that, we see things exclusively through how we would see things, but not as our adversaries do. This flaw has been the basis for our failures in Iraq, parts of Africa and Afghanistan. It’s one of the reasons that I am so adamant about Narrative Identity Analysis. If done properly, the true picture comes together with significantly improved, predictability.

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