The Iran War, Part VIII: The liars, cowards and thieves, looting our household budgets.
TAT readers,
First and foremost, thank you for your patience these past few days while I took a short break. An opportunity arose for me to spend these days with my grandchildren who live far away. With our airlines operating far below any level of real dependability, I made this visit a road trip. The truth is, I was raised with and still find time alone on the road not only peaceful, but useful for pondering serious issues, such as the myriad of acute threats facing our nation and in fact, our world. In many ways, what I experienced on the road became the inspiration for today’s essay, the 8th in a series about the administration’s ill-conceived war with Iran. The focus today is the deep impact that this war, compounded by a year and a half, of criminal mismanagement of our government, has had on the day-to-day lives of all Americans.
It is no secret that the painful and so-called “affordability issues” facing most families, have been steadily increasing since January 20th of 2025. Now that we are engaged in an unconstitutional war with Iran, those painful issues have seen the administration and the ruling Republican Party, throw the proverbial “salt in the wounds” of most citizens, their families and especially their household budgets. Via decades in business prior to returning to the Army to finish my military career, I have long understood the difficulty for citizens to correlate major national and global events to their own daily lives.
I write now to better help readers understand that there are direct and often painful personal correlations to these high-profile events. As a spoiler alert, I want everyone to know there is more pain ahead with little to no relief anywhere in sight. We are being robbed by the “liars, cowards and thieves” in government, associated oligarchy and the alleged experts permeating our daily online and other news experiences. As the title, Truth about Threats clearly states, I am here to distill complex situations into digestible narratives that illustrate the truths that our media and pundits won’t. Unlike the news channels and political pundits, I have no partisan axe to grind. I have zero corporate affiliations or other entanglements that skew my opinions away from truth. My north star is our constitution and the true American principles defined by that sacred document.
As we continue to wade even deeper into the quicksand of another Middle Eastern war, it is imperative that voters have a much clearer view of what is at stake, if only to better protect themselves. To date, this series has been an attempt to give readers exactly that view. As I have mentioned in the previous essays, this topic is beyond complex and so for those who’ve not read the first seven essays, they are linked here below and preceding the body of today’s essay.
Onward
Background since Part VII was published on April 11th.
Eleven days ago, we were told that we had entered into a ceasefire with Iran, despite there being no evidence of any written agreement. This is SOP or “standard operating procedure” for this administration and their party. We the people, have been mostly in the dark about this war from even before the first munitions were released. In fact, this administration treats all information as gold to be hoarded. Their coercion of all corporate media to only report the little “good news” about the war and refusal to inform the public with truth, has those without deep experience and connections to the national security community, largely in the dark. It’s a dangerous time for Americans to be “in-the-dark” about the threats to their daily lives.
In the time between the last installment and today, little of significance has occurred regarding the war itself. In the ripple effects created by the war, there have been significant developments in the global order, the economies of most global nations and direct ramifications for Americans here at home. Abroad, we’ve seen lip-service to ceasefire talks from J.D. Vance and his fellow henchmen, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff. Zero progress has been made and worst of all, Iran still holds all the “trump-cards”… pun intended. Even in today’s Times of Israel, there is an article stating that the Trump administration’s messaging about the war and ceasefire talks has been “muddled” and unhelpful to any resolution. In the meantime, Trump continues to bluster nonsensical threats against Iran. Iran and all true experts regarding the region, haven’t stopped laughing at these threats, despite none of this being a laughing matter.
There are no major agreements on the horizon. Mr. “Art of the Deal” is clueless about negotiating with anyone in the Middle East and Jared Kushner, Mike Huckabee and Steve Witkoff are sure as hell clueless. Negotiation in the region is an artform, foreign to most Americans. I have decades of experience dealing with those in the region both in business and via military engagement. Such negotiations are unlike anything we experience here in the US and all of them involve significant risks to the losers in such negotiations. Trump’s Mafia-styled and heavy-handed tactics are all he knows. None of these coercive tactics have any resonance in the region. To be frank, regardless of ethnicity, religion or otherwise, most indigenous populations in the region, simply laugh at Trump’s worthless threats.
Outside of violating even more international laws regarding war, Trump has no cards at all. Threatening the “end of a civilization” or destroying all of Iran’s civilian infrastructure, are both overt and serious violations of all international law regarding armed conflict. The US under this administration, is a pariah to most of the world. The only option left to the US is to put massive numbers of troops on the ground and hope for the best. Even if we won, Iran still has the wherewithal to undo pretty much all of the region’s oil infrastructure. In fact, they have threatened to do so in response to Trump’s boisterous and impotent threats. This would toss the global economy into freefall. Such a freefall would make the Great Depression of the 1930s look like a minor hiccup in the global economy.
"WASHINGTON—US President Donald Trump wants the Iran war to be a “win” for the United States. It could be—if Iran gives up building a nuclear weapon, opens the Strait of Hormuz, ends its support for proxy militias, and accepts limits on missiles and drones. However, on March 30, Trump said that if there is no deal on these issues, the United States “will conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!).” Two days later, in a primetime national address, Trump said, “If there is no deal, we are going to hit each and every one of their electric-generating plants very hard and probably simultaneously.” But strikes on Iranian infrastructure would not constitute a winning strategy for the United States. Iran’s peculiar sense of symmetry means that Tehran will almost certainly retaliate by attacking Arab Gulf states’ energy and drinking water infrastructure—with potentially catastrophic consequences. Moreover, given how Iran’s leaders think, infrastructure strikes are unlikely to get Iran to lift its blockade of the strait." - Attacking Iran’s energy and water infrastructure is not a winning strategy - The Atlantic Council - By Thomas S. Warrick - April 3, 2026 6:21 p.m. ET
So there we have it, Iran does indeed hold the trump-cards and they know it. So do Iran’s backers, Russia and China. This cruel and greedy administration have cut off America from her century-old allies at NATO, the EU and others around the world. We are alone except for Trump’s penchant for saving Putin. Even Putin though is focused exclusively on saving himself and Russia and who has often humiliated Trump on the global stage. The four most powerful militaries and economies on earth are the US, China, India and to some extent, Russia and should they decide that a US led by a mafia-like extortionist is a threat to their economies, there is the distinct potential for an anti-US alliance. With Iranian fossil fuels being critical to the economies of all the above, they will have no choice but to unify to keep the global economy on sound footing. With this said, now we must look at what an isolationist and cruel US is doing to global economies, including ours. This is where warning lights are flashing red for the overwhelming majority of US households.
So what does all of this background have to do with your household budgets?
Step one is to acknowledge that the war on Iran was quite far from the beginning of our affordability crisis. For most Americans, budgets have been tight since the COVID pandemic. What so many called inflation during the run-up to 2024 election, was in my opinion, mislabeled. Yes, things cost more and in some cases, far more but except for the first year of COVID, I often wrote during those days that what we were experiencing was price-gouging by oligarchical corporations rather than inflation. I won’t write much today on the details of why I believed this, but will include below a couple of links from that period, that explain in detail.
The Trump campaign in 2024 employed the false narrative of “inflation” during the campaign, promising to lower prices across the board if elected. Well, as any US family knows, affordability is an ongoing serious issue and is worsening. Inflation last month jumped to 3.3% last month alone, and largely due to the war with Iran.
Another way to look at affordability besides inflation data is via CPI or the Consumer Price Index.
“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas. Average price data for select utility, automotive fuel, and food items are also available.” - US Bureau of Labor Statistics
What this data is telling us is that yes, there are serious affordability issues for most Americans. As the chart below indicates, the CPI has been mostly declining since we began getting control of COVID in 2023 and since this January, has spiked upwards significantly. Most economists predict it will continue to climb and dramatically so should the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for an extended period of time.
With wages stagnant and and the income disparity between the ultra wealthy and the other 90% of Americans continually increasing, there is little or no hope for higher wages to offset inflation on our horizon. In a long report from the Brooking Institution at the end of 2025, that data paints a dim picture for the middle and lower classes.
"The nation’s affordability crisis has not spared middle-class families, one-third of which struggle to afford basic necessities such as food, housing, and child care. Across the 160 U.S. metro areas studied, at least 20% of middle-class earners cannot afford to live in that place, after adjusting for local income ranges and price variations. The share of struggling middle-class families varies by race: 27% of white families, 39% of Black families, 41% of Asian American families, 46% of Native American families, and 50% of Latino or Hispanic families are unable to afford basic necessities. - In every corner of the country, the middle class struggles with affordability - The Brookings Institution - Hannah Stephens and Andre M. Perry - December 2, 2025
As noted, the Brookings report was December of 2025 and with the war beginning February 28th, things have gone downhill from there. They will continue to do so without adult intervention at the highest levels.
As mentioned at the beginning of today’s essay, I have just completed a road trip to and from California from Texas. Long road trips give those who are observant some decisive insights into the state of affairs for working Americans. For example, gas was terribly expensive, but diesel was roughly two dollars a gallon more than gasoline. The reason this matters is that nearly everything we buy somehow is moved by truck, all across the nation. Last December, diesel was roughly $3.50 per gallon and now it hovers between $5.50 and $6 dollars per gallon. These significant transportation costs are then passed along to us, the consumers. The 19% increase in fuel costs represent the biggest monthly jump since records began being collected in 1967.
While that much of what we purchase off of supermarket or retail shelves was transported before the war, new shipments will reflect the large jump in fuel prices caused by the war. As for increases in food prices, the Persian Gulf, now controlled by Iran, contributes another immovable obstacle to lowering food prices. Roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer comes from the Persian Gulf. Spring planting across the nation is at risk for farmers because of this issue. Even if farmers can get the fertilizer they need, the costs will be far in excess of what they can afford, necessitating that they take the risk of borrowing at higher interest rates, just to be able to plant. It may take another month or so before we begin seeing these price increases but we will see them. The ripple-effect from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, means more pain at the cash register for all of us.
With the bulk of the US middle class having to make hard budget decisions at home, the lack of expendable income impacts nearly every aspect of our economy. Consumer confidence is now at its lowest point since records have been kept.
"The Consumer Sentiment reading from the University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers sank 11% to an all-time low of 47.6 in early April 2026, far below both market expectations of 52. That was 9% lower than last year. Consumers “across age, income, and political party all posted setbacks in sentiment, as did every component of the index, reflecting the widespread nature of this month’s fall,” the survey director said in a release. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 11%, with consumers expressing a substantial increase in concerns over high prices and weaker asset values,” the release added. “Open ended comments show that many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes to the economy." - Inflation surged following start of Iran war, March CPI report shows - USA Today - Andrea Riquier Rachel Barber Jessica Guynn Betty Lin-Fisher - April 10th, 2026
One last issue that exacerbates affordability for US families is the issue of healthcare. Although not linked directly to the Iran war, most consider increasing healthcare costs the most significant issue on their affordability list. With over a million losing their healthcare since passage of the Big Ugly Bill and another 14 million projected to lose their healthcare if the Republican-led Congress fails to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits, even more stable middle class families will be at risk for being able to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads. Across the board, Americans cannot afford their current lives. The increased costs from the war simply make an untenable situation, far worse and yet, the administration, GOP-led Congress and their billionaire enablers don’t give a damn.
To rub salt into the wounds of struggling families, a select few within and closely associated with the administration, have made more than a billion dollars in suspicious, perfectly timed trades. Enormous defense contracts to administration insiders with hastily created business entities, reek of overt nepotism as well. With DOJ impotent due to corrupt leadership, firings and an unwillingness to prosecute anyone in or associated with the administration leaves a vile taste in the mouths of those laboring just to make ends meet.
There are plenty more issues that reinforce my points regarding the travesty of what is being done to the working Americans, who support our nation with their toils and taxes, but by now I believe that we all get the point. It’s now time to wrap up this sobering essay.
As noted earlier at the beginning, I write these essays because I believe that everyone one of us deserves to know the whole picture about what is occurring to our nation. Most news media in the Trump/ MAGA era won’t publish the comprehensive stories for fear of upsetting the administration. We struggle to acquire any facts at all from our own government and the administration’s extortion of media conglomerates, prevents them from shining too much negative reporting on the overt and pervasive criminality oozing from it. Republican politicians shamelessly stand in front of cameras and tell us that we didn’t see what we saw and didn’t hear what we heard. We are devoid of any sense of reality from the very government that we pay for and that the so-called 1% don’t.
Those taxes we pay are now being used to pay for a war we didn’t want or need, and that in my opinion was for oil and power. The costs of this war far exceed what we are actually spending on it. As we learned in this essay, the ripple effects emanating from the ensuing calamity are having a painfully direct impact onto the lives of middle and lower class Americans. To make matters worse, there is no obvious end anywhere in sight. Even should a perfect agreement be made tomorrow between all of the warring parties, the damage is already done. In recent remarks, Senator Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, a former CIA officer made it very clear that it will take well over a year to put the global economy back onto stable footing.
Opening the Strait of Hormuz is the least of the problems if a sustainable peace can be achieved. The damage to regional infrastructure will persist for a couple of years and the reputational damage to the US will last generations. We are now a pariah to the world. This war will negatively impact global US business and commerce interests for at least a generation. As discussed in previous essays, our national security is more at risk now, than at any time since our Civil War. These are long-term concerns but at the moment, we must focus on putting an end to the cruel, selfish greed of this criminal administration before they can do any more damage to our already fragile constitutional republic.
We have little immediate say in the prosecution of this war or its outcome. We will though pay the price as we go about our daily lives, whether it’s at the supermarket, gas pump or our jobs. The light at the end of this tunnel will be the midterm elections. We will even have to fight to win those, especially with the Democratic Party missing in action six months before these all important elections. As sobering as all of this sounds, we do have one ace-in-the-hole, American tradition. Part of American identity, is to stubbornly succeed when the odds are stacked against us. Few nations love an underdog the way the Americans do. We’re not just any underdog either. We’re scrappy, well-seasoned and have 250 years of experience standing up to authoritarian bullies and winning. It will still require more work than we can now imagine, but if we behave as our patriotic predecessors and channel their tenacity, we can do this.
Returning for just a moment to visiting with my grandchildren, it’s their future that I must commit to defending. I have no doubt that all of you feel the same for the future of your loved ones. Protecting liberty for the oppressed is also part of our patriotic DNA. We must not fail.
Onward,
Publius Redux