Trump and the GOP's obsession, with Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal
Yes, it's for Putin's sake... mostly
TAT readers,
Today is a short piece about a critical topic that refuses to go away, but also most mainstream news, hasn’t explained in-depth and from a national security perspective. Understanding this a bit deeper will be further evidence to those still puzzled, about why today’s MAGA GOP has allied us with Russia, instead of our allies. Trump and his extremist GOP, are serving Putin’s concept of sovereignty, in a bid to carve up the globe, for two to four primary sovereign states, which will lord over the rest of the globe’s states.
Russia’s participation in the UN is governed by an interlocking series of concepts, starting with Russia’s definition of international law, narrowly based on the UN Charter and Security Council resolutions, as opposed to a “rules-based order” that Russia defines as expansive and promoting the interests of Western powers. This division enables Russia to reject on principle commitments regarding human rights and democratic governance. A second concept, multipolarity, asserts that an oligarchic group of states must take collective action on the basis of equality and consensus. At the UN, this plays out among the permanent members of the UNSC as an alliance with China against Western interests. The concept of a multipolar oligarchy leads to the Russian concept that true sovereignty is possessed by only a few great powers; the sovereignty of states it views as dependent on great powers is limited. The territory of true sovereigns and those states under Russian protection is sacrosanct and can be defended by force; for the others, it is impermissible to regain territory that is “in dispute” by force. As an example of the former, consider the lengths to which Russia has gone to protect Syria’s use of armed force against its own population, whereas the sovereignty of former Soviet states such as Azerbaijan, Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine must be negotiated. - Russia at the United Nations: Law, Sovereignty, and Legitimacy - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - by Philip Remler - Published on January 22, 2020
The primary reasons were spelled out in a previous TAT essay back on March 4th, titled: Yes, Trump just allied the US with Putin and against our allies. In order to keep this offering today short, I will rely heavily on that essay and a couple more. I will also weave previously unknown national security insights into the narrative.
So, here’s the bottom line to what I’m trying to explain: Russia’s concept of sovereignty in its simplest form says: only primary powers are entitled to full state sovereignty. All other nations will fall under one to those primary states. Putin has this set in concrete, between Trump’s ears, hence why Trump, fully supported by the GOP, is so dedicated to supporting Putin’s Russia, Trump’s America and either China or India. As I pay attention to the major muscle movements in foreign policy and strategic implications of national security interests, I am beginning to see Modi’s India as a potential ally as well, for this major strategic realignment.
For example, at the end of April 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, “Russia’s military operation in Ukraine contributes to the liberation of the world from the neocolonial oppression of the West” (Kommersant.ru, April 30). In June, Putin spoke about the need to “ensure state sovereignty.” He stated that “a country can be either a sovereign or a colony,” and without sovereignty, “it has no chance of surviving in a tough geopolitical war” (Izvestia, June 9). - New Concept of ‘Russian Sovereignty’ Is Inextricably Linked to the War - Publication: Eurasia Daily Monitor Volume: 19 Issue: 124 - The Jamestown Foundation - Ksenia Kirillova - August 15, 2022 07:37 PM
If we watch carefully, what Trump and Putin especially are indicating around the world, It would appear that at least the US and Russia, are already staking their claims on which spheres of influence they will claim. Clearly from Trump’s recent mention of the “Monroe Doctrine,” he’s telegraphing that America wants to fully dominate, the Americas, from the Arctic to the Antarctic. Putin definitely wishes to claim Europe and most likely, compete with China and India for parts of Africa. It is at this time most probable, that different parts of Africa, will fall under Russia, China and India but that approach will undoubtedly be tense, considering that the African continent is rich in natural resources.
The Artic plays an outsized role in this arrangement. Fishing, oil, other minerals and especially the NSR or Northern Sea Route is the biggest prize of all. With Climate Change keeping parts of the NSR ice-free much longer, whoever controls Arctic shipping lanes, has a powerful advantage over every other competitor. You will also note on the map above, that opposite Russia and the US at the top-of-the-world, there is also Greenland and Canada.
Putin and Xi have long worked together to dominate the Arctic. China has no official role in the Arctic Council, other than finagling a seat as a “near Arctic state” a few years ago. The NSR has always been a prized corridor for Xi’s China Dream Strategy, built onto the back of the BRI Initiative, also known as Silk Roads or OBOR/ One Belt, One Road. Every time that Xi runs into a roadblock in his strategy, he tends to rename his projects so as to rebrand them in a more positive manner.
I have spent a good part of my professional life doing research on Chinese strategies of global domination and a few years back during the height of COVID, presented my research at the Catholic University of Buenos Aires. What a tragedy to not be able to attend in person. Argentina has always been a fascination of mine. For those that don’t know much about Chinese Strategy, The China Dream as supported by the BRI, has been an effective strategy for Xi. The only reasons that it is not achieving its goals at the moment, is that Xi, rarely misses a chance to make poor strategic decisions, that hobble his strategy. The China Dream Strategy includes two key milestones, regional hegemony by 2035 and global, by 2049.
The most succinct narrative of China's pursuit of global hegemony The world, All-Under-Heaven, is one, with China / the “Middle Kingdom” at the center and at the pinnacle, is an Emperor or “Son of Heaven”, the sole interface with heaven with no peer. The Han are the “enlightened” while everyone outside is “barbarian” and seeking a tributary relationship with enlightened China for commerce and protection. Those who do not voluntarily seek tributary status must be persuaded or conquered militarily. This will unify All-Under-Heaven under the Chinese paradigm of world order. - China's Ascension through a Narrative Lens - Asia Power Watch - Paul Cobaugh - October 19th, 2020
Background on China’s dreams of global domination
A look at Xi's Narrative of Ascension, via narrative analysis
Declawing Pooh or... stopping the threat from Xi's global aggression
Like all around the world, Xi’s BRI controls most important waterways, canals, railroad infrastructure, undersea cables, telecommunications via satellite which also includes collaboration with Russia and countless other partnerships. This is where the Panama Canal comes into the discussion. China owns, operates and largely controls critical infrastructure at both ends of the Canal, the railroad and airports as well. Therefore, the Axis of Evil, which now includes, the US under Trump and the MAGA GOP.
Then, please don’t forget Modi in India. Modi and the BJP, run India much like Trump and the MAGA GOP run the US. Both the BJP and today’s GOP, are rabidly nationalist and neither care about their constitutions, unless others hold their feet to the fire. Instead of MAGA, Modi has his own dominant party, the BJP whose ideology is called Hindutva, the Hindu version of White Christian Nationalism, but often more violent.
So to summarize, we have a handful of primary global sovereigns, attempting to forge a world carved up like mafia families, sorting out who gets which turf. It just so happens that this plan is very much Putin’s. Yes, just like that famous scene in the original Godfather movie. It’s not completely popular with all of these despots, but it is most likely, the next step in the global, strategic realignment. The criticality of major commercial routes in the Arctic, Panama Canal, St. Lawrence Seaway in Canada and even Antarctica, have become key pieces of the puzzle to what Trump, Xi, Putin and Modi are up to.
The primary focus of my own research is now most curious about which version will materialize. Will it be;
Russia, China and the US
Russia, India and the US
Russia, India, China and the US
Or some other combination?
In order to sort out this answer, it is critical to pay attention to all of the major strategic plays and who they benefit. A good example of where this is going is that not long ago, the White House “leaked” a plan to drastically reorganize the State Department, which included massive withdrawal from Africa. Don’t get me wrong, we’ve long had a terrible strategy for engaging the African continent and her people. Some of Trump’s, GOP approved cuts to foreign aid, will result in death, illness and tragedy for the people of Africa’s lesser developed nations. Our absence, will now signal to Putin, Xi and Modi, who have all invested deeply in Africa, that it is now their continent and we’re out of the game.
Focusing on solidifying US dominance over all of the Americas, and pushing Russia and China out, indicates what our sphere of influence will be. The big questions are Asia and whether it will be India, China or a combination of who holds sway over those nations and their resources. These are just a couple of the data points, I have researched for years. My fingers aren’t up to spelling it all out now as that it would require a few volumes of books to outline. I am pretty sure that by now, readers get the point.
My friends and especially fellow Americans, if we allow Trump and this version of a sycophantic GOP enablers to pursue this route, not only will we lose our constitutionally guaranteed rights, but with our absence, we likely condemn the rest of the world’s democracies, to the same. I will fight tooth and nail to work against such a strategy. My grandchildren and yours, deserve far better than this.
Back tomorrow with another shorter TAT essay. This one isn’t as short as I promised, but it’s critically important that those who resist the current tyranny of the GOP, understand exactly what they are up to. We booted out a king nearly 250 years ago and we need to do the same now. In Britain, they called that former king, “Mad King George III.” Now we have a wannabe, King that we should call, “Mad King Donald the First.”
Cheers,
Paul