A few updates on threats, plus some good news, via Argentina

TAT readers,

My best for your Mondays, or at least the best possible for a Monday. Today is a bit of a mix and not necessarily a full, single topic of focus. There are so many things occurring at the moment that have significant impacts regarding the strength of our national security. I will talk briefly about a handful of these high-profile threats and then take a little longer look at an issue of great interest to me, and that should be to US and allied national security communities. I’ll look at the rapidly evolving changes in Argentina, that could be pivotal, in what is termed in national security circles, as GPC, or Great Power Competition.

This is a lot of ground to cover so without further ado, off we go:

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First, a few updates about ongoing threats. First up, the war in Gaza

1. Israel is engaged in CT/ counterterrorism operations in Rafah, but nowhere near the scale as we saw at the beginning of the war.

   1. This comes from pressure by the US government primarily.

   2. No, the US has placed no “arms embargo” on Israel. We simply are saying that we will not at the moment, ship more of the very large 2,000 lb. bombs that are at the heart of the large number of civilian casualties claims by outside sources.

      

   3. These huge munitions are what are called bunker busters and designed for targets like the massive tunnel complex built by Hamas, beneath Gaza, especially under what international law calls, “protected sites.” Regardless of their effectiveness, they are also so-called, dumb bombs capable of dropping the buildings the Hamas tunnel networks are built under.

   4. Current IDF operations are selective targeting without the aforementioned munitions. There are at least four battalions living in and under Rafah.

   5. Israel employs all internationally recognized legal measures to warn civilians. Most often, Hamas imposes a great deal of restrictions on local/ non-combatant Palestinians to hold them as “human shields.”

      

2. Bottom line… there is no chance for a sustained peace and movement towards a two-state solution, so long as Hamas remains and that Iran plays a primary role in training, supply and equipping of Hamas, Hezbollah and other regional Sunni terrorist groups. Also, Netanyahu and his racist, extreme-right wing government must go as well. They are one of the six entities I blame for the barbaric Hamas attack on October 7th, that ignited the current war.

   1. One additional insight here is that defeating Putin in Ukraine will also relieve pressure on the war on Gaza. I’ve discussed this often in prior deep dives. A couple of links below will provide that background.

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The war in Ukraine

Russian advances in NE Ukraine are still slowly progressing. This is not due to Russian superiority but due to the US Republicans in Congress, denying them funding for nearly a year and starving them of supplies, including ammunition and the tech required for victory. This put Ukraine’s courageous forces into a hole that they are just now slowly beginning, to move out of. It will be a painful Spring in Ukraine’s NE and not just for Ukraine. Putin’s intent is to drive the war into a long, stagnated war of attrition. In the meantime, his bromance with Xi, KJU in N. Korea and the theocratic terrorist regime in Iran are helping Russia to regain a logistics system that can support his unprovoked, genocidal invasion of Ukraine.

As hinted at in the section above about Israel and the war in Gaza, Putin via Iran contributed to the war with training, diplomatic cover and massive investments in propaganda. Much of the propaganda that spews false narratives about the war in Gaza is derived from Putin’s, Xi’s and Iranian influence operations. This can be seen in campus protest banners, slogans and other propaganda products that claim, “genocide, occupation, war crimes, etc.”

Imposing costs on Putin, therefore imposes additional costs on China, N. Korea and Iran. All are forced to supplement their support to Putin, due of Putin’s own failings that prevent effective support for his aggression. Among these failures are oligarchical corruption at every level of government and especially within national defense sectors.

Only unabated and significant support from NATO will keep the West out of war with Russia at the moment. If we don’t support Ukraine to victory for years, it is easily predictable that cooperation between the new Axis of Evil, Xi, Putin, KJU and the Iranian terrorist regime will strengthen into a severe threat to the rest of the world. It’s a case of, “pay now or pay a great deal more later.” Later will mean not only dollars but lives as well. Ukraine is doing the fighting and dying, on the frontlines of all democracy.

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Finally, I have to say that the past few weeks of Trump’s felony trial regarding a Porn Star, is just one more mountain of humiliation heaped onto, the shoulders of decent Americans. I vacillate between humiliation and anger myself. It’s not just Trump, but the MAGA movement made up of Americans who have been brainwashed with years of carefully cultivated propaganda, that are guilty of our national shame.

As that I often, “say the quiet part out loud,” I must reinforce previous statements about this MAGA movement, which is built on fake patriotism, oligarchy and White Christian Nationalism. Reading news from most decent providers, still claims the right to “conservatives” instead of reporting the reality of the GOP being fully controlled by MAGA. Not one vote for any Republican is a vote for principled conservatism. In fact, it is the exact opposite. At the national level, no matter how much you like your GOP representative or senators, party decisions in Congress, are the MAGA agenda, nothing more, nothing less.

Background reading:

• Oligarchy is an acute threat to democracy (truthaboutthreats.com)

• What is Christian Nationalism and why it is a threat to democracy? (truthaboutthreats.com)

• Being a Republican today, doesn’t make you a Conservative (truthaboutthreats.com)

• Oligarchy + Media = Hyper Partisanship, Hyper Partisanship = the death of the Republic. (truthaboutthreats.com)

When Trump finally gets to prison, the threat does not dissipate because the MAGA movement still dines on a daily diet of false narratives, mis/ disinformation and pure propaganda, streaming 24/7 from their phones. The US government is impotent in protecting us from foreign and domestic influence operations. The only way to save some of our neighbors and family members from this MAGA cancer, is to remind them what true conservatism is, not the fake version that FOX News and their ilk have conditioned viewers with, for thirty years. The left must defend themselves too as that many on the left, have absorbed and internalized the false narratives about Hamas and the Palestinian people.

As long as we continue to see headlines focusing on the dishonest, anti-American utterances of a multiple times, indicted felon whose whims become the policy of the party, our republic hangs by a thread, over the edge of the cliff.

Saving the republic depends on everyone’s contributions, not just right, left or otherwise, to truth, integrity and courage. Sadly, within the offices of oligarchs, personal and corporate, newsroom editors and the vacant thinking of those in national security responsible for protecting citizens from propaganda, ethics and courage is in short supply.

As we say in Texas, “no one is coming, we are the cavalry.”

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Today’s slightly longer focus… an update on Argentina and its primary role, in the global effort to curb Xi’s quest for global hegemony.

Okay, I have long had a minor love affair with Argentina. I can only speculate why because I only know one person, who has ever lived there. Perhaps it was my lifelong fascination with history and geography, inherited from my dad. Maybe it was the Gaucho cowboy culture. After all, I did spend much of my life in a cowboy community, that included ropers, bronc riders, saddle makers, rodeo performers and even “bullfighters,” or for those unfamiliar with rodeo culture… the rodeo clowns. Maybe it was my professional focus during part of my national security career that analyzed and promoted strategies for GPC, especially regarding China and Russia.

The iconic Argentine gaucho, Martin Fierro

It wasn’t that I spoke Spanish for a couple of decades and almost none now. For the record, Argentina’s Spanish is relatively different than many dialects as that it has so many different influences. Whatever the reason or combination of reasons, Argentina is important to me personally and exceptionally so professionally. Let’s briefly take a look today, at why Argentina matters to all of us who don’t wish to end up living in a Chinese Tributary state in the couple of decades.

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So, here’s the premise of my insights into the role of Argentina’s role in GPC/ Great Power Competition:

Xi’s China Dream strategy, built around his BRI or series of so-called Silk Roads, is his strategy for meeting his goals for regional hegemony by 2035 and global by 2049. His end game is a global, Tributary system, beholden exclusively to a Han Chinese state, which is under the control of an emperor or “Son of Heaven.”

Xi’s BRI system involves all primary commercial routes around the globe, such as ports, rail, highways, digital communications whether the simple up to satellites and undersea cables. All along these primary routes, Xi has built up control via a combination of predatory economics, military intimidation and manipulated political agendas. The west still has no overall strategy to confront this effectively. Had Xi not made so many strategic mistakes since approximately 2019, he may well have been on his way to a commanding lead.

If you are wondering what all of this China talk has to do with Argentina, it is because until the new Javier Milei administration, that it appeared Argentina had succumbed to Xi’s empty promises. One data point though, does not make a straight line. As with geometry, it takes at least two points to make a line. Presidente Milei has added more than two.

La Casa Rosada

I wish to be clear that, I have been a cautious observer of Milei and this article does not reflect comment on his domestic policies. I am strictly commenting on my professional observations regarding national security, since President Milei took control of leading Argentina from La Casa Rosada.

First, he has pushed back on some of China’s unfair contracts with Argentina who dominates the southernmost nation in South America. From the perspective of shipping alone, it would be strategically unwise to give Xi dominance of these waters. Xi has made aggressive moves also towards the Antarctic and Patagonia is considered the shipping gateway to the Antarctic.

In commercial shipping, choke points like the tip of Africa, one or both ends of a canal zone, the Malacca Straits, the Straights of Gibraltar or the NSR/ Northern Sea Route all in the hands of a serial aggressor like Xi, spells disaster, from a national security perspective. China dominates most of those named above, in one form or another. He has also changed his position on Taiwan which is a trigger issue for Xi. Argentina no longer backs the one China policy. And backed the US regarding the recent Palestinian UN resolution.

Xi’s bromance with Putin, who also has his tenacles firmly around some LATAM nations of strategic value only makes the situation more perilous. Add Iranian influence in a couple of strategically important LATAM nations and the situation becomes acute. I discuss much of this in a TAT essay from March 20th.

In Latin America, our adversaries are playing Chess, and the US national security community is playing checkers.

The US in particular and earlier colonial powers, now allies, all have less than perfect records in LATAM, and our adversaries, have capitalized. Things had been looking poorly for democratic nations and then… Javier Milei came to office and began to push back, slowly but resolutely. Yes, due to Milei’s bombastic, trumpish political persona, I was suspect but not deterred from paying close attention. Words are one thing but what counts, is what someone or some entity does. It’s interesting to note that since his election where he was most often labeled, “extreme right” I am seeing the term, “radical libertarian” sneaking into some credible press.

Unlike Trump, who Milei has often been photographed with, Milei’s national security agenda since moving in as the most important official in La Casa Rosada, has been unabashedly pro West, with little to no room for the Axis of Evil, Xi, Putin, KJU in N. Korea and of course those terrorists in Tehran. Just last month, Argentina applied for full membership into NATO. Nothing sends a signal to the likes of Putin and Xi, like a key strategic nation, applying for and being warmly welcomed by NATO. This isn’t the only sign though.

China’s alleged, space monitoring station in Patagonia, Buenas Aires’ southernmost province, saw its first Argentine inspection after the prior administration, had declined to include such in their agreement with Beijing. The purchase of F-16s and a list of other datapoints clearly indicate a firm decision to build a mutually beneficial and far better relationship with the US and the West, than in the past. Defense is not the only benefit of building a strong relationship. We both need each other for a long list of reasons.

Being at the very end of the continent, Argentina is one of the world’s most fascinating places, as rich in culture as it is in natural resources and diverse populations. She, like other LATAM nations, are a natural fit for solidifying a strong west as not only a line in the sand for the Axis of Evil but also a potentially powerful global influencer for good. It’s true that the potential may be there but is currently still far off. Only time will tell if we can collectively achieve our potential, but for the moment, President Milei has been a breath of fresh air.

I am well aware that the people of Argentina are bearing enormous burdens due to their former administrations. Milei, an economist by trade, is making some dramatic changes to the finances of the country, that like all nations fall onto the backs of its working-class citizens. There is even some recent good news on this front, but more at elite levels than at the markets where most Argentines shop. The IMF/ International monetary fund has reached a tentative agreement to put Argentina back into their good graces after multiple reviews of Milei’s austerity plan and its mostly positive progress since taking office.

The other good sign here is that Milei, often via his bombastic political persona, has come to terms with the fact that it’s not just about him and sees the requirement to stop dictating, and begin working with the National Congress. On a cooperative path, there are some strong indicators that Argentina may well be entering a whole new phase of her history. Her changes, should they remain on the same path as the majority of the West, could very well be an opening for democracy to push back against those who would replace it with oppressive, dictatorial authoritarianism, like the Axis of Evil. Considering my lifelong love affair with Argentina and her story, this just may be the chapter that I’ve waited to see written.

My very best for your week,

Paul