Let's look at the recently passed Aid packages for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and more.
Let's look at the recently passed Aid packages for Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and more.
Slava Ukraini
TAT readers,
Welcome to this week’s first essay on national security issues. After last weekend’s reluctant passage of aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, I believe it important to add some context to what has transpired. There are more facets than time allows to cover so I will focus on, a bit of what happened but primarily on how this matters overseas and what it means to US national security. This is still a tall order.
Onward
First of all, what actually happened in Congress.
Roughly six months ago the White requested the aid packages for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan but congressional Republicans stonewalled any attempt to supply what was already, critical aid for Ukraine. There were plenty of pretenses like, the deficit, false claims about our Southern border etc. Finally, once a Republican led effort in the Senate negotiated for harsh border measures, the Senate agreed and passed their version of the bill. The House, or rather Speaker Mike Johnson and the MAGA representatives in the House, refused to even put the senate version to a vote. They have continued this charade ever since. They did this at the behest of former president Trump.
Even their endless false narratives about the border that provoked the border portion of the bill attached to the aid packages, could not entice them to put the bill to a vote. Again, the former POTUS was the reason because he did not want President Biden to get any credit for improving our border situation. This is exactly how it sounds and represents a former POTUS, not the current sitting POTUS, making policy for our nation. Considering that the former POTUS and the MAGA elements of the GOP that control the entire party are overt supporters of Putin, this should terrify any truly patriotic voter.
Most believe that a classified briefing from CIA Director Burns, helped to sway Speaker Johnson’s mind on the vote. If so, I’m glad the Johnson finally stopped his obstructionism before Ukraine fell to Putin. Of course, Dir. Burns had penned an open letter on the same to the GOP in Congress on March 3rd, that didn’t help but what the heck, better late than never. Additionally, Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio (R) who heads the House committee on Intelligence has been telling Johnson all of this for months, to no avail. Turner, like the rest of the House GOP, still manages in interviews, to blame the other side of the aisle, which is in reality, talking out of both sides of his mouth. Representative McCaul, a GOP Rep. from TX and who heads the House committee on Foreign Affairs, did the same. In other words, Speaker Johnson really already knew what Dir. Burns reinforced in private briefings… or nearly so.
Before passage of the bill, Johnson hustled right on down to Mar-a-Lago to consult with Trump but at least still managed to come back and do what he should have done, six months ago and after great additional loss of life, suffering and loss of gained ground, by the forces of Ukraine. This is unforgiveable. Still, we must work with what we have and at least, we finally have a way forward. Today, with the bill now back in the senate after a little tinkering by the House, it has passed some procedural hurdles and could be passed after the 30 hours allowed for debate. I am quite certain that the Senate will move expeditiously, and this means that Ukraine could be receiving aid within days. As they say often in the Middle East, “from our mouths to God’s ears.”
Moving forward
First Ukraine
The situation in Ukraine, from the six months stalling by the right, is tenuous at best, near desperate at worst. If Ukraine falls, every single eastern European nation becomes a potential next target for Putin, who is openly supported in his genocide, by China, N. Korea, Iran and a whole host of other bad actors. Below is a quote from a recent, CSIS report on the Ukrainian aid:
More and more Russian missile and drone strikes are penetrating Ukraine’s depleted air defenses, both terrorizing the country and, strike by strike, destroying Ukraine’s energy sector. Russian troops are making gains on the front lines and have found a way to bring their air power into the war through the use of “glide bombs”—retrofitted dumb bombs that glide to their targets. Ukrainian forces have little defense against the use of glide bombs, which are causing significant damage. Russia is now believed to be gearing up for another massive early summer offensive, potentially targeting Kharkiv, as well as pressing Ukraine all along the front line. Ukraine is a country on edge. And it is desperate for the resumption of aid flows to simply hold the line. - After the Supplemental, Ukraine's Path Forward - CSIS - Max Bergman - April 18, 2024
I highly recommend reading the embedded link to the CSIS report that explains in detail, “what comes next” after Ukraine begins receiving aid. In short, immediate aid will keep a finger in the dyke against Putin while their military rebuilds what it requires to again, push Putin and his genocidal thugs out of Ukrainian territory all together.
It is of vital importance that I reiterate here, what the White House has been saying for months and that apparently, the President’s party is incapable of narrating: “Ukraine is not only fighting for their survival, but for all democracy, everywhere, especially within NATO/ Europe. Most Americans do not realize that NATO is a treaty, and our role requires certain actions under certain conditions. One such condition and the most precise obligation that has kept the Soviets and now Russia at bay since the end of WW II, is Article 5 or the concept of “collective defence.”
What this means to today’s essay is that Putin has made it quite clear that Ukraine may have been the first, but his intentions were to continue reabsorbing one nation at a time, back into the old Soviet empire. Article 5 says that this would require us to go to war with the rest of NATO against Putin. Keeping Ukraine out of actual combat with NATO forces, means that the world has its best chance to avoid another world war. Every single US or European citizen should be deeply devoted to the sacrifices of Ukrainian heroes, fighting for us and themselves.
Providing the required aid, six months ago when asked, would have also given Ukraine a chance for a more decisive victory before Xi and China became the primary military industrial complex supporting Putin. Now, we are potentially staving off, a massive, global conflict by supporting Ukraine. Sooner would have given us a decisive advantage. As they say though, “this is spilled milk.” Now, the only answer is to deliver the most critical aid as quickly as possible while building the capacity in our own defense manufacturing industry, to deliver the needs of our allies and keep our own stockpiles at the ready. After all, China, Russia and the rest of their pathetic bloc of dictatorial friends, represent a powerful bloc of adversaries. With India as an uncertain ally, the entire Eurasian continent potentially represents an extraordinary collective of aggressors, thugs, powerful economies and most of the nuclear armed states.
I’ll close this Ukraine section with a simple, “Godspeed” the relief to our allies.
Slava Ukraini
Aid to Israel
The primary point is much like aid to Ukraine, aid to Israel is critical because they are not just fighting Hamas, but also the Axis of Evil, Russia, Iran and their cohorts of evil.
In the US and around the world, Israel’s plight requires support. I will also add that the Netanyahu administration must go, in order for this aid to be used wisely and ethically, in order to pursue sustainable peace and a two-state solution. Bibi, as Netanyahu is known, is simply a smarter, more eloquent Trump. Outside of this, there is no difference. His administration is far-right extremism on daily display at home and abroad. In one of my first of nearly 20 deep dive articles about the war in Gaza, Identifies Bibi and his horde of racist, far-right ministers, were one of six entities to blame for the October 7th Hamas massacre of Israelis. As that I have written so much about the current situation in Israel, Gaza, the West bank and the Axis of evil aligned against Israel, I will simply list the most insightful previous essays below for those wanting a deeper look.
The bottom line is that Israel is a longtime trusted ally and a significant part of US national security. They are a democracy, currently as flawed as our own and due to a generational wave of global fascism that has infected the entire world for a generation now. Bibi was in deep political trouble before Gaza and even more so now. His administration will not last. Most Israelis support peace, a two-state solution and better relations with all of their neighbors. Regionally, those who desire war are Iran who is directly supported and influenced by Russia and tangentially by Xi in China. Again, democracy needs a strong Israel in a sea of governments often provoked by outside powers, like Russia and China. The aid is not just for her, but for our own national security as well.
Additionally reading on the war in Gaza
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Three things about the war in Gaza that we all must understand. (truthaboutthreats.com)
“If it bleeds, it leads” - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
When we blame countries and terrorist groups for war, don’t forget to blame corporations and Wall Street too! (truthaboutthreats.com)
Cost - Benefit Analysis, the war in Gaza - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
The road to hell, is paved with good intentions. (truthaboutthreats.com)
I derive no satisfaction from this, "I told you so." (truthaboutthreats.com)
Taiwan
As most already know, Taiwan is a redline for global democracies and an obsession for Xi. Keeping Taiwan fortified against an aggressive China is the proverbial canary in a coal mine trigger, for Chinese aggression. There is no way at this juncture to reduce our commitment to Taiwan. This is not just a line-in-the-sand issue for the West, nor an ideological issue, but a real-world threshold that shall not be crossed by China, without massive retaliation. There is no valid counterargument to giving Taiwan what she needs.
At the moment though, China is no more up to a war with the West, than Putin is. This is a powerful reason for their budding bromance/ alliance. They simply need each other.
There is one more part of the aid bill that passed that most haven’t followed. This is the so-called ban Tik-Tok bill, which actually includes a couple of other important pieces of law. Below is a look from an AP article that explains it briefly.
The revised House package also included several Republican priorities that were acceptable to Democrats to get the bill passed. Those include proposals that allow the U.S. to seize frozen Russian central bank assets to rebuild Ukraine; impose sanctions on Iran, Russia, China and criminal organizations that traffic fentanyl; and potentially ban Tik-Tok in the U.S. if the owner, ByteDance Ltd., doesn’t sell. That bill has wide bipartisan support in the House and Senate. - Aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan advances in Senate with big bipartisan vote - Associated Press - Mary Clare Jalonick
As you can see in the AP quote, there are a couple of very helpful tools to deal with the globe’s most aggressive thugs, Putin, China and Iran. There was large, bipartisan support for all of the above.
I haven’t had time to write about the threats imposed by Tik-Tok but hope to get around to it in the future.
Summary
Well everyone, we’ve pretty much covered the globe in today’s essay, but it will require a few lines to sum it all up. Nothing on the scale of the items discussed lives in a vacuum. Every one of the items discussed, are related and in a most dangerous fashion.
Xi, Putin, the theocratic terrorist regime in Tehran and N. Korea is the new axis of evil, along with those nations subservient to them in one form or another, such as South Africa and some of the expanded BRICS nations.
The 35,000-foot view shows that the Eurasian continent includes multiple aggressive, authoritarian and nuclear armed powers. Two are or were considered superpowers although after Putin’s Ukraine debacle and Xi’s penchant for making terrible strategic decisions, we must reconsider… a bit. India’s allegiance to the US and our allies, is in my professional opinion, more of a “Caveat Emptor” situation.
China and India have the second and third largest economies on the planet. Russia, China, N. Korea, India, Pakistan and soon Iran, will be nuclear armed. Every one of these nations is aggressive, albeit with India, somewhat less so. Still, to please Modi who is the Hindu version of Trump, is slowly exercising lower levels of aggression than I can accept from a so-called “friendly” nation. Murdering Modi’s opponents in Canada, utilizing Indian Intelligence to silence criticism of Modi globally (this is personal in my case), controlling select markets through coercion and helping Putin evade sanctions on oil, are not the mark of a true friend and ally.
So, as you can see from the above, the geo-strategic pieces that have been in realignment since the end of the Cold War, are beginning to fall into place. There’s an old saying, often heard in the Midwest where I grew up, “if you show a pig your finger, he’ll want the whole hand.” This is the case with Putin and his aggressor allies. If we allow him Ukraine, he will just rebuild his military with China’s support and the longer they continue to cooperate so closely, will become the pigs that want it all… the entire globe. Xi’s China Dream strategy has been in place since roughly 2012. That strategy sets the milestones of regional domination by 2035 and global by 2049. The die is set and if we do not put ours and our allies’ feet down now, later will be too late.
This bill is precisely a first step in declaring that democracy will not go quietly into the night. Maya Angelou said it best:
Now it is up to us, the voters. Over the weekend, one of our two major political parties, the GOP broke with Trump and Putin, for the first time in years. It is up to them to tell them clearly to sustain the break or suffer the political consequences. America and other democracies cannot allow divisive politics to undermine our resolve to sustain the brilliant constitutional republic, our founders bequeathed us. After all, the word United in the name of our nation, is the key component of American security.
My very best for your week,
Paul