Part X, the Iran War; The "peace deal" that wasn't.
TAT readers,
Welcome to your weekend. Today’s essay, Part X in my series regarding the war with Iran, captures some of my deep frustration with our failed leadership and the near fatal, self-inflicted wound to our national security. America has enjoyed unilateral global superpower primacy since the end of the Cold War, or at least we did until Trump’s inauguration in 2017. Now, two years into his second administration he has in my professional opinion, undermined our national security and global status to the point that there’s a good argument to be made, that we are now, number two in the world.
Part 4: the War with Iran leads to grave consequences on a local and global scale
The Iran War, Part VIII: The liars, cowards and thieves, looting our household budgets.
Part IX, the Iran War: Hold your horses everyone, a yet unsigned MOU is not a peace deal
As a nation, we once saw the Soviet Union, now Russia and Xi’s China as our most capable and dangerous competitors. Until roughly six months into Russia’s genocidally intended invasion of Ukraine, Putin was Xi’s peer. After Putin’s invasion began its long descent into irrelevance as a global military, Xi quietly began supporting Putin, as did Iran, N. Korea, India tangentially and a whole host of other states operating in Putin and Xi’s spheres of influence. Now that Trump, his administration and the GOP have surrendered to one of the globe’s most heinous regimes, our global power status looks only slightly less humiliating than Putin’s thrashing in Ukraine.
To rub salt into our wounds, 13 American service-members are KIA, killed in action with hundreds of others, WIA/ wounded in action. Across the region, there are another fifty plus thousand dead and wounded from allied nations and other nations in the region. The cost to date, suspected to be in the neighborhood of eighty billion American tax dollars, despite the administration and Pentagon’s claims of far less. Even though they claim a smaller number, they are still demanding as of this week, another 80 billion for the war they falsely claim is over. If one considers the intangible ramifications such as economics, commerce, allies etc., it’s not even close to being over. Any national security professional with deep experience in the region will tell you the same. Humbly, I submit that I am one such professional.
In addition to my deep military experience in the region, I also have a fifty-year love affair with Israel, a daughter living there, whose mother, my first-wife was born there. We married while serving together in the US Army 74-77. In Judaism, children are the religion of their mother and my children were raised in Jewish traditions. We’ve traveled there as a family and I’ve walked among the diverse Israeli population from north to south and east to west. Despite this “love affair,” I sternly forbid myself from exhibiting any bias when it comes to professional analysis of national security situations in the region, and especially in regard to Israel’s behavior. I began writing what would become more than twenty essays assessing the war in Gaza, only a day after the October 7th massacre by a genocidal Hamas-led terrorist army, sponsored, trained and equipped, by Iran. I also named Bibi’s far-right Israeli administration as one of the 6 nations or organizations, responsible for the October 7th massacre.
As recent readers know, this is my 10th in this series about the Iran war. I call things as I see them so that I can offer all of you, a picture of these deeply troubling and interrelated events, as clearly and accurately as possible. The point is, the region is in many ways, my backyard. I have learned over decades, that the only solutions to the seemingly endless strive, is to level the playing field with truth. Only then can sustainable solutions be identified and pursued. The Camp David Accords are a prime example. The situation we are now faced with, is negotiating the terms of our surrender to Iran and Xi. If we do not see this situation clearly and negotiate accordingly, we’ll lose far more than just this war. To date, most of the White House’s and Pentagon’s dishonest pressers, along with spineless western reporting, has denied American voters the ability to gain a clearer perspective. How this war ends, will have a long-lasting effect on the US, our allies and the stability of the world. We must all understand the risks.
Next, let’s look at where we are, what to expect in the near future.
There is no way to accurately predict where this MOU nonsense is going. The fourteen points of the document that we’ve seen, are functionally ambiguous, which means this document, is little more than a handshake. As noted in Part IX, Iran and by extension, Xi, are in the driver’s seat. As an outlier, Netanyahu has taken on the role of “spoiler” to anyone’s intentions. To be blunt, the MOU, reads more like the terms of our surrender to both. The truth is, there is little faith in expert analytical circles that this MOU will last at all, especially since the fourteen point document is largely Iran’s wish list. It humiliates the US, leaves Israel unsecured and comes with a requirement to pay Iran three hundred billion dollars in reparations.
"Making peace is more difficult than starting wars. President Donald Trump has found this to be painfully true over the past months. Now that a ceasefire arrangement, or memorandum of understanding (MoU), has been made public, it is possible to measure what has been agreed against the standards of international law and practice. The 14-point document accommodates virtually the full catalogue of Iranian demands, which would have seemed entirely unrealistic when made during the active conflict. The US is losing its key pressure points, whether economic or military. And Iran’s nuclear obligations are yet to be determined. Other war aims, like stopping Iranian support for proxy forces, do not feature in the instrument." - The US–Iran memorandum of understanding nods to international law. Can that be taken seriously? - Chatham House - Marc Weller - June 19th, 2026
In straightforward terms, this MOU is actually a 60 day ceasefire and expects via negotiation, to solve all of the major issues in two months time. This is a pipe dream at best, insanity at worst. There are major sticking points among the fourteen points on the MOU. The stay on paying Iran tolls for using the Strait is only on hold for 60 days, while they attempt to get all of the Arab Gulf oil states together to finalize a permanent plan. Considering that most of our gulf oil state allies are furious with us at the moment for failing to protect them or in most cases, even warn them of the impending war. OPEC also just suffered the loss of the UAE at the end of April, which somewhat lessens their ability to manage oil prices. There has been tension within OPEC off and on, for years. This is a serious obstacle to getting all of the affected gulf states to agree to much, within the 60 days allotted.
Right from the very first point of the 14, there are landmines. The very first point requires Israel to immediately enter into a ceasefire with Iran’s terrorist army, Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel was not even included in the MOU talks, but Trump and the Iranian leadership seem to think they can just dictate her national security without asking. This point has already failed, with Israeli strikes against Hezbollah strongholds already occurring the very next day. Here’s where Bibi holds a powerful “trump card” (pun intended). Iran demands Israeli compliance and Netanyahu so far… isn’t having it. Much as I despise his Trumpishness, his reasoning for eradicating Hezbollah as a functional army next door, is sound.
Point number 6 requiring the US and regional partners to pay 300 billion dollars to Iran for war reparations, is hard to swallow for Americans being hard squeezed by our highest inflation in 3 years. The MOU also calls for relieving Iran of the painful sanctions that have critically hurt her economy for decades. A $300B paycheck along with sanctions relief, is an extraordinary boost to her long-depleted economy. It might be just as accurate to say that should these things come to pass, it will be the rough equivalent of Trump investing in Iran’s future, with our tax dollars.
As long as we are discussing money, Point 11 declares that the US will “unfreeze” restricted Iranian funds roughly estimated to be $100B. The Obama-era JCPOA also included “unfrozen” funds for Iran but in the amount of $1.7B. The great irony of providing Iran all of this cash, is that the IRGC will be a notable benefactor. The IRGC or The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is the most powerful force in Iran that reports directly to the Supreme Leader, not the military high command. They also include the Quds Force, which is the special forces-like organization responsible for terrorizing their adversaries around the world for decades.
"Four senior Iranian sources described how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps was uniquely placed to capture a big chunk of any financial rewards that would accrue from sanctions relief, renewed oil exports and foreign investment. Their central role may also prove to be one of the many obstacles to a deal: with the Guards so firmly enmeshed in Iranian business, their terrorism designation could significantly complicate efforts to free the economy from sanctions." - Iran’s Revolutionary Guard to win big if US lifts sanctions as part of peace deal - Times of Israel - By Parisa Hafezi and ANGUS MCDOWALL - June 20, 2026
These examples are just the tip-of-the-iceberg but suffice to illustrate how deep a hole Trump and Co. have dug for us all. The old adage about, “the first rule when you have yourself in a hole, is to stop digging” could hardly fit better for this Iran War and surrender debacle by the administration. For all of the words written explaining the MOU of surrender, I don’t believe they will matter in the end. As always, I’m willing to be wrong, but I don’t see this ceasefire holding. In fact, it was already broken within the first 24 hours due to Israeli attacks against targets in Lebanon. Israel continues her fight against Hezbollah in Lebanon although Bibi claims operations against Iran have ceased, unless or if Iran restarts her offensive actions against Israel.
The long-anticipated official signing and meeting in Switzerland on Friday, never materialized, with no reschedule in sight. Trump can’t make up his mind whether he hates Netanyahu or loves him, after saying in a Truth Social Post a couple of days ago that “he had no f#$king judgement” and praising him today as a “great warrior.” If Israel does comply, we all must ask ourselves what Trump promised Israel in exchange for their compliance. In the meantime, we still have roughly 50 thousand troops in the region along with ships, aircraft and other tools of war. The cost to us, the American people simply digs us deeper into a deficit hole, much like it has to the household budgets of working-class Americans all across the nation.
As far as our global national security posture goes, it has diminished significantly in stature since inauguration day but has nosedived since the Iran war began. Don’t forget that when Trump was in China, he asked Xi to use his notable leverage with Iran to work towards a ceasefire. Xi does nothing for free, and based on the reporting of expert observers of the China summit meeting, it appears that Trump is beginning his backpedaling on Taiwan’s defense. He agreed with Xi’s demand to halt the prearranged $14B arms sale to Taiwan. Just recently, Trump has also okayed the sale of our most sophisticated computer chips to China, once considered a line not to be crossed by either party. After Trump approved the sale, the Chinese decided that they don’t want them anyway.
Xi set up Trump to be humiliated by letting him brag about future Nvidia sales to China and then, refused to buy even one single chip. This type of tactic at that level is designed to be a message to the world, regarding who is in charge. It sure as hell isn’t Trump. The official reason given by China for refusing to buy our advanced AI chips was, “that they no longer consider US businesses reliable partners.”
"A recent New York Times headline says it all: “Trump Approved a Nvidia Chip for Sale in China. Beijing Doesn’t Want It.” The administration endured substantial domestic criticism for approving sales of Nvidia’s H200 chips to 10 Chinese companies, but because of Beijing’s continuing objections, as of mid-May not a single H200 chip had been sold to Chinese companies. Following his recent meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping—where, according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, chip export controls were not a major topic of discussion—U.S. President Donald Trump said China had not bought any H200 chips “because they chose not to. They want to try and develop their own.” - Ball game’s over—the US is out of the AI chip market in China - Brookings Institution - Mark MacCarthy - June 17, 202
With China now holding such a prominent role in the region, Xi is one step closer to moving his China Dream Strategy forward globally. The massive employment of our most critical munitions in Iran, meant that we had to take prepositioned munitions from the Asian theater to keep up operations. This makes us far more vulnerable in the Pacific. Our diminished strength makes Taiwan and our allies less safe. The way Trump behaved in Europe at the G7, and Pete Hegseth berated NATO allies this week are little changed from them first taking office for his second term. The administration has treated our allies, especially NATO with utter contempt and arrogance. We are nearly friendless now in the world, depleting our limited national security resources as fast as we jettison allies. Like the early 17th century prose by John Donne, “no man is an island,” so goes with nations.
I wish I could offer everyone better news in this essay. It’s not in the cards. We’ll all be living in uncertainty unless adults begin advocating for the US rather than our useless and corrupt Vice President and real estate wannabe diplomats like Kushner and Witkoff. I can hardly be more serious regarding my concerns for our national security. As much as this war demonstrates the criminal negligence of our leadership, it is only a symptom of a far more aggressive cancer, called the Trump administration and Trump-era Republican Party.
We’ve now bombed 9 different countries since inauguration day, lost a war to Iran, threatened to attack our NATO allies over Greenland, illegally invaded a sovereign nation, whose oil we now steal, are illegally blockading Cuba, etc., etc., etc. The administration is a cult of maniacal conquest without having ever read history. If they had, they would know that it doesn’t end well for anyone. November is our chance to at least slow the Trump/GOP cancer threatening our values and making us vulnerable to global predators. We can do this, so long as we tap into the true American principles that live inside us.
I’ll try for something more uplifting in the next essay.
Paul