The Iran War, Part XI: When you're in a hole... stop digging
TAT readers,
Well my friends, the administration has apparently never learned the old rule that says, “when you’re in a hole you can’t get out of, rule #1 is to stop digging. Sure, it’s common sense as well, but common sense is on the endangered species list in this administration. The Iran War is such a hole and the administration just can’t stop digging. Barring any significant change to the status quo, Iran has no compelling reason to change either her position or her strategy regarding the Strait of Hormuz and related issues. Iran holds nearly all of the cards in the on again-off again negotiations with US representatives, a position Iran made clear this week when publicly issuing her demands to be met by the US, prior to restarting peace negotiations. Those demands are in the quote below.
"Trump's remarks came after Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, the outgoing secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, on Saturday listed six demands that the U.S. would need to meet before Tehran will allow the free-flow of naval navigation in the trade passage. “Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not open,” Zolqadr declared, in a statement carried by state media. The conditions were as follows: - Never threaten Iran with any language or insult the sanctities of this nation. - End the war and aggression against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq forever. - Lift the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran. - Pay the damages of the two wars of aggression and imposition on Iran without any reduction or reduction. - Lift the cruel and illegal sanctions against the Iranian nation. - Unconditionally release the frozen and stolen assets of the Iranian people." - Trump Responds as Iran Says U.S. Must Meet These Six Demands If Strait of Hormuz Is to Reopen - Time Magazine - by Tiago Ventura - Updated: Aug 10, 2026 2:38 PM ET
Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr’s comments and demands were the diplomatic equivalent of being gestured at rudely with a select, single digit. In the meantime, the whole world is watching as Iranian hardliners turn the screws on our clownish and obviously impotent administration of losers. Trump and the GOP’s backs are against the wall with November midterms right around the corner and they are clueless as how to relieve the financial pressure on voters caused by their latest war for oil. The war, its casualties and costs are deeply unpopular in both domestic US political parties, and around the world. In less than two years, Trump and his GOP entourage have nearly shutdown two of the world’s most critical commercial waterways, and haven’t a clue what to do about it. The world is watching and they are not happy.
Here in the US, inflation costs or what most are now calling “Trump’s affordability crisis,” are costing families at least an extra $3,500 a year with no hope of improvement. Millions have lost healthcare in 2026 while that 70% of America struggles with their household budget, and the Iran War is one of the primary drivers of these added financial burdens. Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait (the southern entrance to the Suez Canal) due to the war are deeply impacting shipping, including fuel. Higher fuel costs means higher shipping costs. Higher shipping costs mean higher costs for all products and services. That means the prices at your local supermarket will cost more too, and will continue to do so until there is a sustainable solution to Iran. There is no solution in sight.
For those interested in the relevant data about the depth and breadth of our affordability crisis, please see the link beneath the graphic below from the Urban Institute. When clicking on any of the interactive graphics below, you will be directed to the supporting information for their findings. The research doesn’t tell a pretty story but it is an essential story for each and every voter to understand. Spoiler alert… Both Trump administrations have been very hard on our wallets.
Fifty-five percent of all global manufacturing is in Asia. Everything we purchase in the US manufactured in Asia now costs more. Mexico and Canada are our biggest trading partners and both are targets of what the Wall Street Journal calls, the Trump tariff obsession. Just recently, he burdened both with new tariffs that you and I will pay for. In other words, inflation cannot go down so long as tariffs and the Iran War’s inflationary factors don’t improve. These improvements are nowhere in sight either. GOP politicians can promise to fix inflation all they like but unless the underlying factors like closed waterways and tariffs don’t change, inflation won’t change.
On the global front, China continues to be the big winner in this Iran War fiasco. The longer the war, the more extensive the damage to the image of the US as a superpower of consequence. Our ongoing abdication from global alliances and institutions simply reinforces Xi’s message to the world; “China is the safe, stable partner and the US is the selfish disruptor.” Much of the world already believes this, especially after Americans elected Trump a second time. Part of US national security is based on being us being a force for good in the world that is also a reliable ally and good neighbor. This gives us the security of the herd. Neither of these things are true any longer. If China develops more influence in the world than the US, we lose the security of the global herd.
As has been Xi’s strategy since taking power, mediating conflicts has been a key component of ingratiating himself and China with nations around the world, for the purpose of influencing them to favor China over the US and other western nations. In fact, last May, China launched the International Organization for Mediation (IOMed), a new international organization focused on international dispute mediation. The message the world is hearing at the moment, is that the US is the global disruptor and China is the global unifier.
Mediation and global engagement have been keen and somewhat effective elements of his China Dream strategy, built onto the back of his BRI or Belt and Road Initiative. Note that the China Dream strategy has two milestones, regional hegemony for China by 2035 and global by 2049. Of course Xi isn’t the best partner, but China’s stability is definitely more attractive to other nations when the US is behaving like the proverbial, “bull-in-a-China-Shop.” The worse our behavior, the less influence we have with other nations. Friendless and ignored is a vulnerable position to be in when it comes to geo-politics.
Now we find ourselves in an awkward stalemate with Iran. With the cost of the war pickpocketing American wallets, our diminished position of influence in the world and with not one single exit strategy on the horizon, the situation comes down to Trump desperately trying to find a way out of the disaster he created, while that Iran broadcasts our military and diplomatic impotence to the entire world. The problem for the American people and the rest of the world, is finding a way to end the stalemate before any further damage can be done to our economy and our fleeting national security posture. Based on Iran’s demands this week, they are prepared to wait out these alleged negotiations… until well after the midterms. The question then becomes; “can the US and global economies continue limping along for another 3 months until the midterms, with 20% less energy to drive industry?”
Iran is less vulnerable to prolonging negotiations so long as Xi continues providing support. Both Russia and China have assisted Iran in targeting US troops and facilities in allied nations along the western side of the Persian Gulf, like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, Jordan and Oman. So long as Iran can keep a knife at the throat of one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and hold it hostage, Iran can call the shots and short of a full-scale ground war, there’s not much we can do about it. This is where we are today. Meanwhile at home, the war’s extreme unpopularity and massive cost, is raising alarms within the GOP about their chances in the midterm elections.
And then at the end of July, Iran launched cyberattacks against water facilities in the US in six states. These cyber attacks are a message to the US, if you attack our infrastructure, we’ll attack yours too. This is in reference to Trump’s repeated threats to destroy Iranian infrastructure that supports the civilian population. This would be a war crime. Terrorism threats here in the US are also now elevated due to the war. Slowly, the war is coming home to America, along with the higher prices.
We may as well get used to this on again-off again war, that as I recall… still does not have the approval of congress. American casualties are increasing and the price tag for this war is climbing faster than Trump’s ego when being fawned over by his cadre of wealthy sycophants. Our inability to bring the Iran war to a successful end continues to diminish our stature as a primary superpower. In fact, I could make a good argument that the US is no longer the world’s primary power. Our demonstrable poor strategic judgement, depleted munitions stockpiles and failed campaigns against Iran, have made us appear vulnerable to our adversaries, especially if they were close strategic partners such as China and Russia are.
As we careen downhill towards the midterms, the Iran War will seem to drag on endlessly. We no longer have the diplomatic clout, or sufficient munitions to bring the war to a successful conclusion at this time. We are largely devoid of leverage over Iran due to China’s backing and having the entire world breathing down our back because of the significant disruption to global industry and commerce. Iran seems to be managing Trump’s sanctions and regime change doesn’t appear to be on the horizon. Barring any major unforeseen events or changes, I’d say that Iran can continue to humiliate the Trump administration and us by proxy, for a long while.
I wish this essay could bring you more hopeful news, but we remain saddled with an administration and governing party that don’t give a damn about you, or me, or the American people. The forecast calls for more Iran war pain, at least until the midterms. Should anything significant change, I’ll be back with an update. Until then, settle in for at least another few months of pain. With any luck, this ship of fools called the Trump administration, won’t make things even worse with another of their hair-brained ideas.
My very best to all,
Paul
Parts 1-10 in this series are below:
Part 4: the War with Iran leads to grave consequences on a local and global scale
The Iran War, Part VIII: The liars, cowards and thieves, looting our household budgets.
Part IX, the Iran War: Hold your horses everyone, a yet unsigned MOU is not a peace deal
How Tehran’s Use of Cyber Operations in the U.S.-Iran Conflict Has Evolved
Iran war reverberations: A nadir for Asia’s economic security | Brookings
America’s Affordability Crisis Is About More Than Rising Costs | Urban Institute