Happy Monday TAT readers,
Today’s essay offers a far-wider perspective regarding the brazen, large-scale Iranian attack on Israel this past weekend. Within seconds of hearing the news that Iran had launched a massive, drone and missile attack on Israel, I called my daughter who lives in northern Israel, and woke her out of a sound sleep. She had not yet heard the first sirens. Like most Israeli’s, she said while yawning from my wakeup call; “not to worry, that she had her ‘go bag’ ready, if she needed to go the bomb shelter in the basement of her apartment building. It is normal in Israel to have bomb shelters in your building. Please take a moment to let that sink in. Attacks on Israel are tragically, frequent. Any and every attack on Israel, is not only against Jews, but every other faith and its followers, living in the Jewish state. This includes roughly two million Palestinian Arab citizens, both Muslim and Christian.
For those that don’t know or understand the state, it is nearly impossible to grasp how different their life is, tucked neatly into a small plot of land, at the eastern end of the Mediterranean Sea. The state is much like California, with Haifa in the north, much like Santa Barbara and an hour south comes Tel Aviv, little different from Los Angeles and of course further south, great deserts once roamed by Jews fleeing Egypt and nomadic Arab tribes. Israel doesn’t go looking for trouble, but trouble seems to regularly find her. Sometimes, Israel even makes her own troubles, don’t we all?
Bibi is the principal villain in this episode internally, while the external villains are too many to count but among them, you find Hamas, Hezbollah and a myriad of other terrorist organizations. Then there is Iran, Russia, China and their friends and allies. As many like to say, “it’s a rough neighborhood.” It has been for millennia.
The “millennia” issue is partly to blame for the war in Gaza, and Iran’s role is merely, just more of the same. Had there been no Oct 7th massacre, none of the current tragedy in the Jewish state, would have happened… at least not at this time. There have always been provocateurs and back and forth fighting in the neighborhood, whether it was Joshua at Jericho, Egyptian Pharaohs, the Ottoman’s or the Pan-Arabism/ Nationalism pursuits of the 1950s. Now, with Arab states steadily recognizing and becoming more neighborly, Iran and Syria are the troublemakers, du jour.
It important that we grasp the repetitive nature of warfare, conflict and cataclysmic shifts in regional power structures, if we are to understand Iran’s actions this past weekend. It is not just Iran and Israel entangled in the current war, nor is it the simple, Jews vs. Arabs mantra that we hear so often. Iran is ruled by Shia Islam and is not ethnically Arab. Arabs are also, almost exclusively Sunni Muslims. In a neighborhood where Shia and Sunni Muslims don’t always see eye-to-eye, Iran manages to support both Hamas, Sunni terrorists and Hezbollah, Shia Muslims. Some of this support, is by direction from Moscow.
On the other hand, and especially since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Israel and Iran, have been at war, albeit a shadow and proxy war. Hamas, Hezbollah and other Jihadist groups (Sunni Muslims) are primary proxy warriors against Israel and under the direction of Tehran’s terrorist regime. The complexity of what now see in our headlines, is monstrously complex, but to a certain point, not too terribly hard to understand… if I can create a manageable narrative for all of this. This will be a challenge and I hope that you will bear with me. The better that we all understand, the sooner we pressure leaders to seek peace and an end to the thugs in the neighborhood. The sooner we do, the sooner that innocents in the region have a shot at peace.
Today though is not just a Middle Eastern, history lesson. We must better understand the outside forces that have led us to this latest war. If we don’t, the more that we risk overreacting, and thus, creating the next one. This is today’s focus, seeing the bigger picture. As that I wrote several, in-depth essays explaining critical background during the first several weeks of the war, I will not simply rewrite them here. I will embed excerpts from those earlier TAT articles as they are relevant. I will also list the links to all of the essays, in chronological order, should anyone wish to read the equivalent of a book, about this current war. I tend to write long essays so I have no doubt that everyone will breathe a sigh of relief, for a simpler and shorter approach.
Onward
First, let’s sort the solid facts about the attack and this current war. What we do know and what we think we know about the attack and the surrounding factors, are partially seen below in the numbered points.
Hamas, trained, supplied and supported by Iran, Russia and in a tangential way, China, launched the worst attack on Israel since the 1973 war, or as it more commonly known, the Yom Kippur War. then waged by Arab states, sporting Russian weapons systems and other support. The Oct. 7th attack sported the same weapons systems etc. The barbarity, intentionally unleashed primarily against civilians is beyond comprehension.
Despite evidence to the contrary, Putin and the Ayatollahs, disavowed any connection to the attack. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Hamas retreated to one of the most complex tunnel systems in the world and waged war with the IDF, just as they had planned.
The propaganda for civilian casualties had already been prepared and was based on previous uses of the same or similar influence tactics. Hamas and Iran knew that the world would condemn Israel for the civilian casualties, that Hamas had already planned for. Yes, using protected areas such as schools, hospitals, mosques etc. as operational centers is a standard tactic for Hamas and many other extremist organizations globally.
In the north, Israel is also still postured for an expected attack from Hezbollah, Shia violent extremists that are also supported, supplied and trained by mostly Iran, but also includes Russia.
Meanwhile, major news outlets with heavy gulf state investors, proceeded to back Hamas propaganda, especially regarding casualty figures. The worst of the primary news outlets were and still are, Reuters and the BBC, when it comes to dishonesty about Gaza.
Putin, failing badly in his war in Ukraine and his demotion to “junior partner” to Xi, was desperately creating diversions in other hot spots around the globe. These ranged from a coup in Niger to stoking hate in the Balkans and backing the Azerbaijanis against Armenia. Putin drove these via proxies, in a bid to not only distract others from his grotesque losses in Ukraine, but to put stress on how NATO and other nations can keep up with the logistics required for Ukraine to win the war, that Putin started. Now Putin has the Republican Party defunding Ukraine’s war effort, so this gives the Axis of Putin, Xi and the Ayatollahs a chance to shape the war in Gaza, to their advantage.
A couple of weeks ago, Bibi, Prime Minister Netanyahu and his extreme, right-wing government made a fateful and poor decision to attack an Iranian Consulate in southern Syria, where Iran has outposts, training and operational advisors, etc. Israel bombed the sovereign territory of Iran, by attacking the consulate. Consulates and Embassies are considered the sovereign soil of their resident nation. This required a response from Iran. The rest as they say, is now history.
Finally, with this background in place, let’s talk a bit more regarding what all of this means going forward. As with all strategic analysis, deciding who has what to gain, is of critical importance. This will be common thread as we proceed.
One last point going forward is to understand that not everything is good or bad, black and white nor even all good or all bad. The world is far more nuanced than this. Americans are particularly unsophisticated in understanding this. We have never fought a foreign enemy on our home soil. We have not been occupied not forced to live under constantly changing regimes, flags or types of government etc. Those who have experienced these things are imbued with an instinctive sense of survival, under any situation at hand. Most Americans don’t understand this.
The quote, “the enemy of my enemy is my friend,” is commonly misattributed to Arabic but is in fact, a Sanskrit word. The point still applies here, regardless of origin. In so-called bad neighborhoods such as the Middle East, permanent enemies are not always a good strategy for survival, over a long expanse of time. It pays to maintain relationships, if at all possible, with the bad guys and the good guys. You never know who will be running things in the future.
The attack itself is a good place to start.
I believe that General Frank McKenzie, USA (R), former commander of Central Command said it best on Face the Nation;
"I think this was a big attack by Iran. I think this was as close to a maximum effort as they could generate. And- and I'll illustrate it in this way. Iran has over 3000 missiles of various types scattered around- around the country. They have about 100—probably a little more than that—missiles, largely in western Iran, that can target Israel. Based on what the Israelis are saying, I believe they fired most of those weapons at Israel. The Israelis, obviously, were able to intercept most of them. Iran could not replicate last night's attack tonight, if they had to." - Interview with retired Gen. Frank McKenzie, former commander for U.S. Central Command, that aired on April 14, 2024. - Face the Nation - Margaret Brennan
I am as surprised as anyone that Iran would risk such an effort at this time and this thought, is a proper segue, to what I believe to be most important; who has something to gain and why now?
Here’s some of my thinking and it is very much along the lines of what I wrote in a very early essay on the war. It lays out in detail, motivations, desired outcomes and for whom.
The essay I am referring to, is the following:
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
An overview to the blame chart above:
Israel in this chart is at the center and the focus of the threats, numbered 1 - 5.
These five threats, are hierarchical from the top being China and progressively down to number 5, representing HAMAS.
The red arrows indicate who threatens who.
Again, 1 -5 are linked in a hierarchical fashion.
Block 6 is Israel’s own, extreme-right-wing government and not linked by a red arrow to the others.
China is the highest in the pecking order. Ultimately, those beneath her merely act on the requirements of those above them. Even Putin has to keep his end of the bargain, when it comes to Xi. Ultimately, Xi has the most to gain, like any other emperor. Xi needs control of the Eastern Mediterranean because it is key to his China Dream strategy of regional hegemony by 2035 and global hegemony by 2049. His strategy to acquire this status, requires the success of his BRI/ Belt and Road Initiative or to some, Silk Roads.
Russia, in order to not lose in Ukraine and maintain value to Xi, desperately needs China’s help. Xi only helps because Russia is a key overland and Maritime Silk Road piece of Xi’s strategy. Iran’s theocratic terrorists have become the attack dogs for Putin, and this helps Xi, via Russia. Ultimately, Hamas and Hezbollah, are Tehran’s attack dogs for their strategic desires. Russia also has a very long history of supporting the entities that came before Hamas, for the Palestinian people, such as the PLO.
In many respects, I believe that the attack on Israel satisfied the entire hierarchy of bad guys, hence was encouraged at the time it occurred by those at the top, such as Xi and Putin. In early October, Putin was performing miserably in Ukraine. He had already begun his diversions in Armenia, Niger, Central Africa, the Balkans etc. At that time and before the Republican Party in Congress had refused to fund our allies in Ukraine, Putin needed diversions and for the nations that supply arms and other aid to Ukraine. Putin wished to take media scrutiny off of his dramatic failures and wished for NATO to expend their stockpiles and attention, helping Israel. This I believe is what led to such an overwhelming and barbaric attack. The October 7th attack, had to be large enough and heinous enough, to prompt the response that Hamas got from the IDF and most Western media. Ninety percent of Western media took the bait and began promoting Hamas propaganda regarding casualties rather than telling the West, the truth.
Neither Hamas, Iran, Putin or anyone else, cared about what would happen to the innocent Israelis, nor the Palestinians. Only Xi, Putin, Iran and their satellites, had something to gain and this is still, brutally true. The fate of Putin, Xi and the Ayatollah, are all linked together, providing the strategic network that allows them all to pursue their interests and diminish the collective strength of the West, at the same time.
As we can see from the comments above, the selfish leaders within the hierarchy chart, are the only ones benefitting. The collective weight of all of their greed for power, is a cruel and heavy punishment imposed on innocent Israelis and Palestinians to bear.
The Axis strategy was moving along fairly well until, Prime Minister Netanyahu, tossed a wrench into their plans, by bombing the Iranian Consulate annex, in Damascus. For the sake of honor, Iran had to retaliate, and they had to do it big! And so, they did go big but likely too much so. Now Israel will retaliate in some form or another. No matter the response, Xi and Putin especially will be anxiously handwringing and here’s why in the next paragraph. Again, I must include a disclaimer here, I am the furthest thing from a Bibi fan but this one decision, has done what no one else could do, rallied large-scale support for Israel against Iran, just when the media had beaten Israel into the ground with Hamas propaganda.
Iran has become a critical supplier of arms to Putin, who cannot produce enough to feed his gluttonous war machine. Missiles, drones, arms, technology from Iran has become a primary pillar of Putin’s external support. Putin has had to go begging to N. Korea as well. I believe that it is safe to say that, without the Republicans in Congress and Iran’s supplies, Putin’s army would be crawling backwards.
With Iran being so critical to Putin’s war machine, any Israeli response that targeted the manufacture of drones, missiles and the required technology, would be devastating for both nations. Weapons are cash cows for both nations traditionally and should Iran end up minus her ability to supply the Russian army, the dominoes in the Axis’ hierarchy, begin to precipitously wobble. Xi will not be happy either and I look for him to continue deploying his specialized teams of conflict mediators to the region. Even yesterday, Iran was publicly expecting Putin who has no spare resources, to come to Iran’s aid. Putin knows better but publicly boast of doing so, even when he will not, in any significant manner.
Since coming to power in 2012, Xi has created teams of conflict mediators. I call his teams, “Munchausen by proxy, mediation teams.” First Xi encourage conflict and then swoops in with his dishonest teams, and sorts things out, so that they favor China. After all, the bad guy network put a lot of effort into destabilizing Israel and Western interests in the region, he can’t let it all fall apart, any more than Putin can afford to lose a prime arms supplier.
As for Hamas and Hezbollah, they are both now feeling the pinch of being the ones used, for someone else’s gain. If Iran takes a beating, they end up in deep trouble too. Putin has depended on Hezbollah during his war in Syria that is best defined as a crime against humanity. It matters not which of these Axis dominoes fall because if they fall at all, the entire neighborhood, is in line for a major shift and not one that favors Xi, Putin or Tehran.
From a strategy point of view, I see the best option for a proportionate strike by Israel, to be against the Iranian arms manufacturers. It would weaken Iran and her Hamas/ Hezbollah and Houthi proxies. It would certainly impact Putin’s war in Ukraine and Chinese progress towards Xi’s China Dream strategy, would be disrupted. These are all positive results. The tragedy as always, will fall onto the innocent victims on both sides. We owe it to them, to see to it that the geo-strategic pot-stirrers, are managed or displaced in order to avoid future suffering on all levels. They are the ones preventing peace, for their own selfish desires.
Things will change anyway in the region after the current war in Gaza and the Iranian strike. This is why that Hamas must be reduced to rubble and Iran, marginalized as a prominent arms source for terrorists and Putin. This war will cost Bibi and his racist/ extremists cabinet members their jobs, rightfully so. Israel was fed up with Bibi long before Oct 7th and now it is far worse. As dark as things seem at the moment, Iran’s miscalculation may end up lighting that tiny lamp, at the end of the tunnel and that beckons us towards better times.
We must stay the course with Israel and preferably without Bibi and his henchmen. We must also support a response against Iran, that hopefully will marginalize her weapons industry. We must continue to give hope to those oppressed in Iran by this brutal regime and most of all, continue to provide for the victims.
Well, this narrative has gone on long enough and congratulations if you have made it this far. I hope that seeing the situation from a wider perspective, helps to better grasp the dangers of kicking the can down the road when it comes to pursuing peace. In this tragedy, there are hints of better days ahead, if we apply ourselves. More tragedy for innocents, if we don’t.
My best for your week,
Paul
The noted additional reading for those who are interested:
Israel - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Short Friday notes after yesterday's long report on Israel (truthaboutthreats.com)
A quick Sunday update regarding the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in Gaza (truthaboutthreats.com)
Three things about the war in Gaza that we all must understand. (truthaboutthreats.com)
5th in the series, Israel and Hamas updates. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Has all media, good and bad, forgotten how to report with facts and context? (truthaboutthreats.com)
A short catch-up on Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and China's hand in Hamas' barbarism for their own selfish purposes. 7th in the series (truthaboutthreats.com)
Friday updates - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
What the hell is wrong with almost all media reporting on the conflict in Gaza and ignoring the brutality in Ukraine and other nations? (truthaboutthreats.com)
“If it bleeds, it leads” - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mid-week, national security, news round-up (truthaboutthreats.com)
When we blame countries and terrorist groups for war, don’t forget to blame corporations and Wall Street too! (truthaboutthreats.com)
Cost - Benefit Analysis, the war in Gaza - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
The road to hell, is paved with good intentions. (truthaboutthreats.com)
I derive no satisfaction from this, "I told you so." (truthaboutthreats.com)