Trump, MAGA, Iran and the Axis of Evil, threat updates
Trump, MAGA, Iran and the Axis of Evil, threat updates
TAT readers,
Well TAT family, my Monday desk was piled high after weeks on the road. It has taken the entire morning to simply dig deep enough, to reveal my keyboard for today’s TAT. Much has transpired in the past few weeks so today; I’ll start with a few insights and significant updates regarding a couple of our most serious threats. As has become my norm when writing on topics I have previously invested a great deal of time into, I will add links to those essays most relevant, as background information for those who wish for more in-depth analysis.
Today, the primary focus will be on the following:
The Trump/ MAGA election threat
Israel and the potential for a wider-scale war that includes Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria
Today’s focal points are intimidating in size and complexity, but I will do all possible to be direct and clear about the issues. My intent is to keep each topic relatively short for everyone’s sake. Both are critically essential to US and global security.
Onward
The Trump/ MAGA election threat
Although early voting has already begun, seven weeks from tomorrow comes one of the most consequential elections for our nation, since 1860 or for those less steeped in US history, the election of Abraham Lincoln just prior to the beginning of the Civil War. Ironically, many of the issues and a large part of Confederate ideology is in line with today’s MAGA controlled GOP. The issues of race, Christian Nationalism, Oligarchy and authoritarian control over people of color and the lowest rungs of US society are very much the same.
Most Americans, conditioned to listen only to their echo-chambers of alleged “news” sites, are easily as polarized as the slave states vs. the Union during the Civil War. Lincoln’s quote below from the Illinois Republican State Convention in Springfield, Illinois, is instructive here:
“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” I believe this government cannot endure, permanently half slave and half free. I do not expect the Union to be dissolved—I do not expect the house to fall—but I do expect it will cease to be divided. It will become all one thing, or all the other." - Lincoln House Divided Speech - Abraham Lincoln - Republican candidate for the 1860 presidency
In today’s America, it is not a contest precisely defined as “half slave” or its opposite but a contest between our “constitutional republic” and a MAGA “oligarchical, authoritarian, White Christian Nationalist nation. As Lincoln noted in 1858, these versions cannot coexist, and one must become supreme. If we are to remain a republic based on our founding principles, MAGA must be defeated and soundly, just as the Confederacy in 1865. We didn’t fully heal post-Civil War, and the ugly ideology of the Confederacy has periodically resurfaced across the pages of our history, ever since. The Klan era, Civil Rights era etc. are glaring examples of just how stubborn ideology once internalized, can be to dislodge.
Trump’s mental state and the brainwashing of the MAGA movement are intrinsically linked and please don’t allow yourself to be fooled, this is not a normal political struggle. It is civil war, by other means. Like 1861-1865, this election is family vs. family, friends vs. friends, far-right extremist ideology vs. policy and so much more. We must do all possible to not only win this electoral civil war, but to do the one thing that we all failed to do in 1865… heal properly and reunite our nation under our traditional founding principles. Maga’s fake patriotism, is the precise opposite of American values.
On this platform, I have recounted my sadness at the tragedy of seeing family and friends turn away, due to their conditioned addiction to Trumpism. No matter how difficult, it is imperative that we do not turn our backs on family and friends who’ve lost their way. Like Lincoln’s intentions after the Civil War, we must focus on the careful reintegration of these currently lost souls, to our families, friends and communities. At the same time, we must do what the US government has failed to do for four plus decades, stem the tide of the brainwashing propaganda that conditioned our fellow citizens to adopt Trumpism. I’m not talking about censorship but focusing on living our principles, while concurrently not allowing others like the FOX News crowd, to convert the meaning of patriotism into God, guns and Trump.
The last note on this topic is that during my cross-country travels these past three plus weeks, I made a wide variety of observations regarding Trump, MAGA and opposition to them. I will share just a couple of these antidotal observations.
The enthusiasm for Trump/ MAGA has waned significantly and/ or, has gone “underground.” By this I mean that, even when driving through “Trump country” like Texas, Arizona, the Midwest etc., the signs, banners, bumper stickers and absence of “Trump trains entirely” was startling. Trump backers, now embarrassed and ashamed of the perpetual insanity and absence of reality, may well still vote Trump but are ashamed to say so publicly. The psychology of Narrative Warfare says that these folks will almost certainly vote for him but public peer pressure, will silence their once bold embrace of the traitorous former POTUS.
Also, when passing thru Trump country, I did not see just a couple of Harris/Walz signs but notable numbers of them. Formerly and during the heyday of Trumpism, no one would have dared to be so out-of-step publicly with their communities, for fear of retaliation or peer oppression.
Finally, Trump/ Vance election signage was meager and even when the sign was Trump’s name alone, it was often weathered and from past elections. This is true even here in the bizarre MAGA world of the Texas GOP.
The last word on the criticality of winning the election for non-MAGA candidates, is that there is an absolute requirement to do all possible up until the very last minute of this election cycle. Overconfidence and assumption are our Achilles heels. The Trump campaign and their hordes of immoral partners are up to more schemes and plans to overturn or “win” this election, than you can imagine. Some of these plans involve infecting the lineage of election officials with those who would do Trump’s bidding. There are technical efforts underway by the CYBER thugs who assisted the Trump 2016 campaign and yes, this includes Russia. Also, manipulation of social media and the platforms we all embrace, are keystones to such efforts… just like during the 2016 and 2020 election cycle.
Every single voter who wishes to retain our constitutional republic, must be diligent with their participation in retaining our Union and its founding values. These TAT essays on the election, are one way in which I participate most effectively. We all have our strengths and need to recognize and employ them in service to American democracy. Its only seven weeks and as noted at the beginning of this portion of today’s essay, they may just be the most consequential for our nation since 1865.
Godspeed our success in sustaining our republic.
Today’s second topic is not only of critical national security importance, but deeply personal to me. It is about the escalation of attacks against Lebanese Hezbollah. Yes, Syrian Hezbollah is part and parcel of the terrorist organization too, and just as complicit with Iran’s IRGC and Quds Forces. I wish to be fully transparent before offering some analysis about this conflict, that has such an impact on US and allied national security. One of my daughters lives in northern Israel. I have talked with her twice today, the last as she and her dog were returning from her bomb shelter after multiple rocket attacks. I have a fifty-year love affair with the state of Israel and for a variety of reasons. Mostly, because my first wife was an Israeli/ Canadian citizen when serving in my US Army unit, where we married.
Her parents, both Israeli had fought in the war of Independence and were like all citizens, regularly part of a national reserve force. As much as I love Israel, I also have enormous compassion for the Palestinian people, stuck for decades between outside interfering nations and organizations like, OPEC BRICS, the Arab League, Saudis, Iran, other Gulf States, Russia, the US, NATO and countless other international special interests. As far as current threats go, Iran, doing Putin and Xi’s dirty work are the most dangerous.
After the October 7th massacre of Israelis and visiting tourists by Iranian supported Hamas, I have written a book’s worth of essays explaining in detail, what is occurring and who is to blame. In my assessments, I include the PM, “Bibi” Netanyahu and his racist, extreme-right wing administration. They are wholly disliked by the majority of Israelis but due to Israel’s unique coalition-styled democracy, still holds power. Like Trump, Bibi is an indicted felon and doing everything in his power to remain in office.
On the other side of the “blame” coin, is in hierarchical order; HAMAS, Hezbollah, Iran, Putin and finally Xi. I explain this in detail in one of my first essays about the war. It is linked below, under the diagram of “who is to blame” for Oct. 7th.
The five Axis of Evil thugs who made the October 7th massacre possible are the primary threats to US and global security. It is no secret that Xi has a strategy for regional hegemony in 2035 and global dominance by 2049. Putin, now his junior partner, Iran, KJU in N. Korea and all of their proxies and affiliates, form the primary threat to what is called the RBIO or Rules-based, International Order. We are part of this, and global stability and commerce depends on this post-World War Two order to operate. This is why Israel and everyone’s arch enemy, Iran matter to US national security. Supporting Israel and peace in the Middle East matters a great deal to all of us. Still, it must be done carefully.
So long as Iran and Bibi hold significant power, there can be no peace. It is truly this simple. After these two warmongers and the Axis of Evil, come a wide variety of other special interest groups like OPEC, technology corporations, defense contractors, etc. Just as in biblical times, Israel’s strategic location, is a linchpin in global trade and security issues. This is where China comes in. Xi’s strategy for global dominance is called, the China Dream strategy and built on the back of his BRI or Belt and Road Initiative/ operational plan. This would require a book or two to fully explain but I wrote series a while back explaining this in detail for those interested. These essays are below.
A look at Xi's Narrative of Ascencion, via narrative analysis (truthaboutthreats.com)
Part I: The roadmap to mitigating Xi’s aggression is called: “Using the BRI as a non-kinetic, Targeting Diagram. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Part II, Denying Xi, his worst instincts - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Declawing Pooh or... stopping the threat from Xi's global aggression (truthaboutthreats.com)
What matters in the short term for not only Israel and the Palestinian people, but for global security, is the demise of the theocratic, terrorist regime in Tehran, as a key player in the region. Tehran’s Quds Force thugs are designated a global terrorist organization, and it is they along with Putin’s thugs that trained, equipped and supplied the needs of Hamas and Hezbollah for their decades of terrorist activity against the Jewish State. This symbiotic and tragic dynamic between Xi, Putin, Iran and Middle Eastern terrorism keeps the world harnessed to the Middle East, for all of the wrong reasons. OPEC is another significant thorn in the world’s side, but that is another story all together.
In my professional opinion, degradation of Iran’s clout as Putin and Xi’s “hitman,” is the key to managing the global threats from the Axis of Evil. Xi is not ready for any large-scale war, nor does he like getting his own nose dirty. Putin could care less about bad press, but he is fully dependent on Iranian military support in Ukraine, especially regarding high tech weapons and systems. Putin also has long depended on Hezbollah and IRGC support for Assad’s genocidal war against his own people in Syria.
I would hope that US and allied national security strategists are looking past just an immediate Middle Eastern resolution to Gaza and Hezbollah. Should we be able to exercise some influence over Bibi, we could as they say, “kill a few birds, with one stone.” Bibi is much like Trump, albeit far smarter. He will be looking to negotiate some resolution to his Trump-like legal challenges and still maintain much of his ill-gotten wealth, over the course of his political career. I strongly suspect Israelis will put an end to their current far-right administration and restore Israel’s trajectory as a nation based on and observant of the high moral standards, it was founded upon. If this sounds familiar, it is it is because it is precisely what Americans did in 2020 and are pressing to do again during our November election.
Again, Godspeed Israeli military success against the terrorist armies, supported by the Axis of Evil. Then, it is time to get serious about Middle Eastern peace, once and for all. No more meddling by spoilers like the Gulf states, the Axis of Evil and special interests like OPEC. Israel and the Palestinian people, both deserve a fighting chance to once again become neighbors in peace.
Deep background analysis regarding Israel, Gaza, Hezbollah and Iran in chronological order from earliest to latest:
Israel - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Short Friday notes after yesterday's long report on Israel (truthaboutthreats.com)
A quick Sunday update regarding the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in Gaza (truthaboutthreats.com)
Three things about the war in Gaza that we all must understand. (truthaboutthreats.com)
5th in the series, Israel and Hamas updates. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Has all media, good and bad, forgotten how to report with facts and context? (truthaboutthreats.com)
A short catch-up on Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and China's hand in Hamas' barbarism for their own selfish purposes. 7th in the series (truthaboutthreats.com)
Friday updates - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
What the hell is wrong with almost all media reporting on the conflict in Gaza and ignoring the brutality in Ukraine and other nations? (truthaboutthreats.com)
“If it bleeds, it leads” - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mid-week, national security, news round-up (truthaboutthreats.com)
When we blame countries and terrorist groups for war, don’t forget to blame corporations and Wall Street too! (truthaboutthreats.com)
Cost - Benefit Analysis, the war in Gaza - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
The road to hell, is paved with good intentions. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mainstream news outlets are borderline antisemitic in their reporting about the war in Gaza. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Freedom of the Press is our right but we should expect truth, not agendas that kill human beings. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Time for an honest update on the war in Gaza (truthaboutthreats.com)
Today I replay one of 18 essays I wrote re: the war in Gaza. Tomorrow... I unpack last night's, insane, Iranian attack on Israel (truthaboutthreats.com)
Gaza protests are emblematic of willful tunnel vision... on all sides. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Iran, the Axis of Evil's role in campus protests and their support of genocide (truthaboutthreats.com)
War or no war... in Israel's north? - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
This wraps up today’s first TAT essay, after my long, cross-country road trips. I really have missed writing to all of you, especially these past couple of weeks. I’m more than ready to get back to work. Thanks to all for your patience.
Like our current gun violence crisis, solving imposing national security threats, requires more than hopes and prayers. Let’s all participate in electing leaders, committed to solving for solutions for all of us, not just their personal political careers and parties. It is truly the American way and precisely as our founders expected when framing our founding documents.
My very best for your week,
Paul