Don't go all in on the Gaza cease fire, just yet.
Don't go all in on the Gaza cease fire, just yet.
It's complicated, just like everything else in the Middle East
Happiest possible Monday to TAT readers,
If there was one part of the world that held the title for the phrase, “it’s complicated,” it would be the Middle East, especially in modern times, as it pertains to Israel.
Nope, no long history lessons today but a clear-eyed, sobering look at where we are with the war in Gaza. As that I have now written 22 or 23 long reports on Gaza, beginning on the now infamous date of October 7th, I will sprinkle some of these reports throughout today’s essay in order to provide, deep dive background to readers. I will also add a set of links to the 19 most relevant, at the end of today’s essay for those looking for a complete analysis.
Today I will be looking at the tentative cease-fire proposal announced a few hours ago and where we can have confidence or false hope.
Onward
With nearly 50 years’ experience with and in the Middle East on a personal and a professional level, I can almost bet the proverbial, deed to the ranch, that by the time I finish writing, the luster of this potential cease fire, will have worn thin. It’s hard to write this as a life-long optimist but reality has a way of curing the most buoyant optimism. I’m not saying that it will or will not happen but as all adults should know, the “devil is in the details.” As I type these words, we have precious few of them.
In the case of the Middle East and very pointedly during the war in Gaza, I follow the credible sources in the Israeli press. We get precious little comprehensive and credible reporting here in the States. In fact, I have often loudly and repetitively called out some of my former trusted press sources, like REUTERS and the BBC for their overt dishonesty and publishing pro-Hamas propaganda, throughout the conflict. As our third POTUS and prominent founder, John Adams said, “facts are stubborn things.”
Much of the Western press’ addiction to reporting the Hamas Health Ministry casualty figures without context, was and still is overtly and willfully dishonest, not to mention, antisemitic, in my professional opinion. It will take a very long time if ever, that I will read either the BBC or REUTERS, again.
Background regarding media and the war in Gaza:
Freedom of the Press is our right, but we should expect truth, not agendas that kill human beings. (truthaboutthreats.com)
“If it bleeds, it leads” - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
What the hell is wrong with almost all media reporting on the conflict in Gaza and ignoring the brutality in Ukraine and other nations? (truthaboutthreats.com)
Has all media, good and bad, forgotten how to report with facts and context? (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mainstream news outlets are borderline antisemitic in their reporting about the war in Gaza. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Now, as I have only written for a half hour or so, the facts about the tentative cease fire deal, are already changing… that sure didn’t take long. Israeli news is already reporting air raid sirens in southern Israel and shrapnel falling into civilian yards in Sderot. All of this while the Israeli government is still considering Hamas’ acceptance of the deal broker by Qatar and Egypt. Since Israel was not part of this deal, they have already acknowledged that what Hamas agreed to, did not reflect what Israel had offered. This is a little game of influence, that permeates everything in the Middle East… Hamas, is playing the publicity game, not bargaining in good faith.
Before I am accused of partisanship, I want to be perfectly clear that I have named the racist, extreme, right-wing government led by Netanyahu as one of six nations or movements, responsible for Oct. 7th. The overwhelming majority of Israeli citizens are adamantly opposed to his administration. He was on the way out before the war and will not survive long in power, afterwards. Yes, extending the conflict helps him personally, innocent lives be damned.
Trends in Israeli politics, tend to mirror our own in the US, but 3-5 years later. Bibi now runs the most extremist government in Israeli history and yes, it operates very similarly to the Trump, Bolsonaro, Modi and other global authoritarian governments, that we have seen this past decade or so. Bibi, like Trump is trying to stay out of prison for corruption and wielding the sword of racist, right-wing extremism against the very identity of the Jewish state.
I wish to be crystal clear regarding the motivations for Hamas to accept a “deal” that the details remain unspecified to but are renounced by the Israeli government. Hamas is stalling for two primary purposes:
Global pro-Hamas protests, falsely assumed to be pro-Palestinian, helps Hamas, Iran, Hezbollah, Putin and also Xi, but time to sort out the mess that they all contributed to in the barbaric Oct. 7th massacre by Hamas.
Israel and other supporters have essentially called the bluff of Iran and Putin by supporting Israel while concurrently supporting aid to the innocent Palestinians living in Gaza and under the violent, oppressive thumb of Hamas.
The IDF’s successes in dismantling the mostly underground infrastructure of an army has gone better than expected and Hamas and their Sunni extremist colleagues are under a great deal of operational pressure. Their resources are dwindling and support from the outside is at a bare minimum.
There is one exception to minimal support from Iran, Putin and Xi, and this is in influence operations that flood western media that decry Israeli “genocide” a complete lie and along with the overt dishonesty of the word, “occupied” and wrapped with the bow of the truly genocidal quote, “from the River to the Sea.”
The US and Western national security communities have been willfully impotent for decades in either protecting us from adversarial influence operations or project truth and democratic values around the world. The false Palestinian narratives now echoing across US campuses, have been present for decades and no one, has bothered to undermine them. Protecting innocent Palestinians is moral. Lying to achieve this is not.
Yes, Israel has good reason to continue her limited operations in Rafah, from a military perspective. It is the last significant holdout by Hamas’ senior operational leadership, intelligence resources and whichever hostages remain alive. Apparently, Bibi has also heard warnings from supporters like the US as well. Israel, a few weeks back removed the majority of her troops and resources from Gaza, shortly before the Iranian attack on the Jewish state. Predictably, protesters backing Hamas and Iranian propaganda, seemed to ignore that attack. While they beat up Israel, I see little or no protests against terrorist organizations that viciously abuse the Palestinian people in Gaza every, single day of their lives.
Yesterday, Hamas bombed the crossings that facilitate humanitarian aid which killed Israeli soldiers supporting the aid operation. They get the overwhelming majority of the headlines and the propaganda victory of loudly announcing that they accepted a ceasefire that did not include Israel’s position. Meantime, western media facilitates all of this by running around Gaza and protests pursuing the disgraceful mantra of modern media, “if it bleeds, it leads.”
As I close in on the summary of today’s essay, another change has just popped up in my newsfeed from the Jerusalem post that all of you may find of interest.
The only way to keep up with reality regarding the war in Gaza and supporting the innocent victims on both sides, is to be well and accurately informed. Outside of experts in think tanks and some highly specialized, veteran reporters from ethical newsrooms, I recommend bypassing western media in general. Israel has plenty of ethical and credible news and yes, even news that aligns with left and right politics, for those so tragically addicted to their political identity. I recommend the following:
Israel HaYom
Times of Israel
YNET
The Jerusalem Post, most of the time
Finally, as I close this shorter than usual TAT essay, there is one final update with the following linked article from the Times of Israel:
As noted earlier, the deal Hamas agreed to was not what Israel had submitted for terms, not even close. This like everything else that terrorist organizations do, along with terrorist nation states like Iran and their Axis of Evil brothers in Moscow and Beijing, there is never a reason to believe their words. Always, read the fine print.
That last thing that I will predict is that campus protesters operating on Iranian and Hamas propaganda, will again blame Israel exclusively. I thought that they went to college to get an education. Having a sympathetic heart is useless if you can be manipulated into supporting terrorism. As I like to say, “the road to hell is paved with good intentions.” The same applies to the minority of Israelis manipulated into supporting Bibi and his extremist thugs. There is no substitute for knowledge and experience. Even knowledge and experienced aren’t enough if you are not willing to defend them instead of going along with the crowd.
Having lived through the sixties where I watched massive, years long violent and peace protests on US campuses, I know what can ethically be achieved by protest and what cannot. In the case on our campuses today, I know that these protests that rely on false, adversarial narratives, will not succeed in saving lives. If Hamas is not removed as a functioning terrorist movement and Iran and Putin are not kneecapped, no Israeli or Palestinian life will be safe. Yep, Israel must take measured steps in this phase of the operation, but they absolutely must finish the job. Fake ceasefire deals, only prolong the suffering.
My very best for everyone’s week,
Paul
List of previous background essays:
Israel - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
Let's unpack the complex, barbaric attack on Israel and those to blame. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Short Friday notes after yesterday's long report on Israel (truthaboutthreats.com)
A quick Sunday update regarding the Israeli/Palestinian conflict in Gaza (truthaboutthreats.com)
Three things about the war in Gaza that we all must understand. (truthaboutthreats.com)
5th in the series, Israel and Hamas updates. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Has all media, good and bad, forgotten how to report with facts and context? (truthaboutthreats.com)
A short catch-up on Hamas, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia and China's hand in Hamas' barbarism for their own selfish purposes. 7th in the series (truthaboutthreats.com)
Friday updates - by Paul Cobaugh - Truth About Threats
What the hell is wrong with almost all media reporting on the conflict in Gaza and ignoring the brutality in Ukraine and other nations? (truthaboutthreats.com)
“If it bleeds, it leads” - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mid-week, national security, news round-up (truthaboutthreats.com)
When we blame countries and terrorist groups for war, don’t forget to blame corporations and Wall Street too! (truthaboutthreats.com)
Cost - Benefit Analysis, the war in Gaza - by Paul Cobaugh (truthaboutthreats.com)
The road to hell, is paved with good intentions. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Mainstream news outlets are borderline antisemitic in their reporting about the war in Gaza. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Gaza protests are emblematic of willful tunnel vision... on all sides. (truthaboutthreats.com)
Protests and protesters: honorable intent or a product of foreign and domestic malign influence? (truthaboutthreats.com)
An appropriate replay of this essay on Yom HaShoah: Never again... never was. (truthaboutthreats.com)